i strongly recommend that someone unvote gilbert then, scum could easily quickhammer this soon and like was said earlier, a lot of people likely haven’t had the chance for day abilities yet.
/unvote Gilbert
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votecount
| Vote target | Voted by | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Gilbert_Lovell | Alice_Alard, Isabel_Savage, Emma_Maison, Gilbert_Lovell | 4/7 |
| Not Voting | Peter_Carew, Mary_Savill, Andy_Bernard, Sarah_Lacey, Jane_Drayton, Thomas_The_Second, Ivo_Wake, Edmond_Bailey, Geoffrey_Bailey | 9 |
some thoughts about the jane election:
i definitely wish i’d been on earlier to see thomas’ claim and his case on why he should be King over jane. a Noble with a gossip remaining i would say is definitely more useful to BD over a Princess with only Flirt remaining. however, i could be misremembering when exactly mary claimed but if she’s an Alchemist, and wanted to be King this seems -EV? Alchemists don’t have royal blood so if we go along with the theory that scum has around 8 votes to vote for a Prince King then i don’t see why mary insisted on “stepping” at all and sticking to her Princess claim at the time. i’d love to see someone help this make sense because my gut instinct is to scumread mary for that.
This is the unnecessary mech talk I was talking about.
This won’t accomplish anything imo.
People get too caught up in mech and mech-“clears” and all that shit - it distracts us from actually finding wolves
Unless you’re on the stand and about to die and your claim can save you, or you have information that will directly lead to a pelt, you shouldn’t be claiming.
There’s one positive to potentially having kinged a cultist:
If we get the other cultist out today, they’re just screwed.
I was going to do this earlier but forgot. Curious what you’ll find. I’ll do my own analysis tomorrow irl. Remind me if I forget again, please.
Earlier on, I mentioned that some of the pre-flipping that I did on Helen included pre-flipping of other players.
I think Peter/Jane have w/w potential. This shouldn’t be the main part of any argument on these players, but it’s been in the back of my mind ever since Peter started the push on Jane and it’s skewing my perspective no matter how hard I try to be objective.
I think both players have individual wolf equity, and a team consisting of these two + Helen makes sense.
I’ve read this post 5 times and my brain can’t comprehend it for some reason
Think thats my cue to sleep lmao
The interesting thing about Geoffrey’s treatment of Helen is that while he does seem to be scumreading Helen, he gives her many, many, many chances throughout the day, and warnings as well. The number of conditional statements (I will vote you if X) is very high. I’m not certain if it’s consistent between all of Geoffrey’s reads, but this consistency within the Helen read by itself is really something of note. At least toward the end, he stopped giving Helen ways to “prove herself” and simply insisted on lynching her, which is a better look.
Conclusion: Based on the number of chances Geoffrey has given Helen, as well as some questionable statements, and especially the LAMIST post he wrote today, Geoffrey could be considered Helen’s busser. While he was scumreading Helen fairly consistently, he still gave her multiple outs and threw her more than one rope. She did not grab any of those ropes, but the attempts are still there in the thread, for everyone to see. The one saving grace is that at some point, he stopped doing that and went all in; but that is something to be expected from a slightly hesitant busser as well. At some point, you have to commit.
Keep in mind that I am completely disregarding mechanics as I am making this read.
i don’t blame you i’m so sleep-deprived i barely make sense to myself.
for small brains: i am questioning why mary wanted to be King due to the fact that she didn’t have Royal Blood which is what we needed to stop Prince being kinged
There isn’t much of a mention of Helen in Mary’s ISO. The biggest thing is that Mary suddenly got suspicious of the Ivo wagoning exactly when Helen voted there, which is slightly unlikely to come from Helen’s partner.
Conclusion: While there is nothing that definitely disproves partner equity between Mary and Helen, there is one specific post that Mary would be slightly unlikely to write as Helen’s partner, in my opinion. For that reason, Mary is less likely than average to be Helen’s partner.
tbh he treated my and peters slot in similar way
This is literally the only post Sarah has ever written to Helen or about Helen, and it’s a damn tree. Frankly, this is quite staggering – and disappointing.
Conclusion: There is nothing there. Nothing suggesting Sarah and Helen being partners, nothing disproving it. The utter lack of anything might slightly point to them not being aligned, but it’s by no means something I would ever rely on to clear Sarah.
where would they get K/O on andy then
I’m disregarding mechanics in these analyses.
[quote=“Emma_Maison, post:3469, topic:83777, full:true”]
Gee that tree reference. I imagine this is some kind of inside joke on FoL.
[quote=“Ivo_Wake, post:2933, topic:83777”]
Scum:
Alan_Atlee (Evil king)
Gilbert_Lovell
Helen_Harte
Andy_Bernard
[/quote
Nice to see my top 4 scum get wiped out even though king was good just… Uh prone to making mistakes
Broken quote rip
This was their way of saying they shouldn’t be kinged
While I do think they should have come clean earlier.
(Or, not have claimed during the King election at all)
The way they claimed alchemist felt genuine
Idk im tired
Im just staying up till Emma finishes so I have shit to mull over tbh
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i’m not saying your read is in bad faith, i just think we have to consider mech when making reads here. this isn’t a mountainous, no one’s vanilla here. we signed up for FoL and part of that is dealing with mech and using it to our benefit alongside social deduction. if you’re just blatantly disregarding the useful mech we do have in your analyses, then what’s the benefit?
of course all the hesitation on geoffrey’s part doesn’t look great when considering the slot. however, i think it is more likely to come from a townie sick to death of willagers not being active enough to get themselves out of the PoE due to a recent string of town losses.
also means my read on king was right
Frankly, there is barely anything here either. That said, putting Helen in scumreads, then not interacting with her or voting her throughout day 2 is a bad look. It looks like basic mafia distancing; scumread your partner in theory, but not in practice.
Conclusion: Jane and Helen could easily be partners. There is nothing that disproves that, and Jane’s scumread on Helen had no visible followup at any point, which could be indicative of the scumread’s purpose (solely distancing).
this definitely does help, i had misremembered how forceful (or lack of) mary was to be kinged. this is definitely a sign i need to sleep, a groggy bailey is not in my best interest.
what i will note though is i really like how emma is taking the time to i assume literally go through everyone alive for w/w equity with helen.
ping me if you need me!