consider this
rather than being like ‘we can’t leave them for LyLo, it’ll cause problems’ people could actually reevaluate their reads
holy shit discourse just loaded a whole bunch of posts
that explains the context lmao
what if ive re-evaluated it many times and i still think its marshal and the more things i see the more it points to it being marshal
ok i thought about it again but i still think it makes way more sense for it to be v/w
Hmmm, you bring up some good points here. I guess both of them being town is a possibility. Also, welcome to my towncore Arete. I also have a spicy read. It’s likely more of a tinfoil really. It’s that Blizer is a wolf.
My.reasoning is that Marshal’s read on Mist’s slot doing that 180 that quickly just because Mist replaced out seemed extremely unrealistic to me. Then there’s how strongly Blizer wants Chloe gone and how much he seems to trust Marshal. Him saying that Marshal could be a wolf seems fake for exactly that reason. Of course, this hinges on Marshal being a wolf.
yeah I reevaluated
I read your post not assuming you were a wolf
and uh
if anything it pushed me into confbias instead of pulling me out of it so yeah
I don’t want Arete in towncore
like you can let their slot float around in the nulls but it should not be in towncore
that’s a mistake
In spoilers because I'm not mean, also what the fuck you guys posted another 150 times while I was writing this fuck you
I owe you guys nothing ever again
I can see both a town motivation and a wolf motivation for this, and I have no reason to see it as one over the other. As town, Marshal, who has been somewhat deadlocked for the past day and a half or so thinks that he’s finally found an easy wolf by poking at slots who were going UTR. As wolf, Marshal hasn’t been making progress in pushing a mislynch/bussing in the past day and a half, so he found a slot with low WiM that looks scummy, isn’t really defending themselves, and is a normally strong player that looks like a ML. I’m curious to know why you believe it’s A over B.
I can concede this point, although I wouldn’t really call it “active”. He’s been going through people and basically slapping a quick read on them, although the reasoning is usually decent enough to the point where it’s like “I don’t know why he would do this as wolf unless it’s to pocket people.”
On the ones quoted (am aware that you said these were just a few):
I do feel the towny-ish vibes from the first one, although the second and third are just kinda existing in my mind. I don’t really feel anything from those.
Once again back to “Not sure why he would do this as a wolf unless it’s intentionally to pocket people”, although this is mountainous after all. Just going for a deepwolf is a viable tactic, and creating narrow PoEs to setup chains isn’t a terrible idea if you think you can direct thread attention before it collapses on you.
It definitely feels like Chloe hasn’t been pre-planning most of her stuff, although a couple of her interactions are weird, such as D1 with Sulit & Trochi, and D2 with Wind. Logical thought processes are a big deal to me, and a logical conclusion from looking at her is… “fuck this, I’m not reading an 1100+ post ISO”.
This quote actually had a precursor, which is below
I definitely could find it fakeable by a wolf, especially one at Chloe’s level. Although, again, it has been cognitively consistent with her visible thought process this game.
Once again, definitely fakeable. There’s nothing too interesting in it, and nothing that goes “weh” to me.
This I can agree with. The visible idea and the implied thought process demonstrated are both intrinsically townie, with the idea that “lol frenchie drinking tomato sauce” and also the idea of keeping this as an idea in her mind and rolling it over her proverbial tongue in such a way that it comes up instantly as soon as someone else voices it.
Yes… and no. Just because they aren’t pushing it loudly doesn’t mean it isn’t happening, but you’re right in that it wouldn’t be them “actively” trying to convince everyone.
This is a very easy way to set up ML chains, I agree. But there wasn’t a great deal of support, either. It was an idea that was kinda thrown out there, and a few people went “yeah lol I’m up for it” and then just… it stopped being mentioned.
Another potential is that (in the case of V/W) they were going for “okay, let’s push this, then call for the villager to go out first, and then pull up all this stuff that goes actually our scumbud is spewed V by this and we really can’t afford another strong townie going out” etc etc.
lol!numbers can’t argue with anything here
Currently a 10v3. We, at this point, can afford 3 MLs before we go into LyLo. If we kill a wolf, that number is still at 3 but changes into MyLo… I think. Math has somewhat fried my brain at the moment. So, theoretically, a 1v1 on a strong villager isn’t entirely out of the question…
Until we get to this:
This is mountainous. There is absolutely nothing stopping them from killing the super strong villager they want gone at night and instead pushing a LHF without charisma or support. Instead, Marl died last night. I’m still not really sure on why this happened.
… meh. 
This is a good point. Wolves, at this point, if this was unintended, would be pushing hard to get either of their buddies out… Which, notably, could be what this wallpost is, and you 100% can not argue with me on the potential of this.
I feel like the logical response to this from a wolf would be to start trying to scumread you and discredit your reads so this could be continued. This ← is incredibly important to note.
I feel like this is a slight overreaction.
Reactions
We had this joke from Blizer
Marshal going “yeah”
Then, a couple minutes later, kinda related from Centuries
And just… ? What does this mean?
Then we get movement from Blizer, who has decided his earlier joke was not a joke. This is also in the middle of his proclaimed “RT” about sulit, btw.
Wind is where the note about earlier comes in about what the most common wolf response would be if the V/V world was accurate. This is… almost exactly how it would go, except she didn’t narrow in on just Arete and Marshal, and kinda threw in Sulit.
FK probably not mad about Arete’s take? Unknown.
I mean, both yes and no. If you’re a wolf, you could easily be trying to get a scum partner out of danger with this because, as you’ve noted, scum don’t want to go 1-for-1 here. So, if you were scum with a scum partner about to be set up in a 1-to-1 thunderdome, you’d want to get them out and just nightkill the other one now that you’re relying on them not getting executed to set up the chain.
TownplayIsMyPassion.jpeg
You can not tell me that their flips would not help with solving. Of course it would. They’ve interacted with every single slot in the game heavily. But it’s not necessary, no. However, this isn’t really part of this argument so whatever.
I would like you to go ahead and pick out at least three or four people who you think are the wolves in this case and make at least short cases on them. Most of these are more or less contentious slots at the very least, so I think no matter what the conversation could be interesting.
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Marshal outright saying that he’s just going to trust my read because I’m Arete does actually scare me a little bit because I don’t think my reads are so accurate that he should have that much trust in me
I still think I’m right though
Ive moved into the “what if arete is just really fucking wrong and marshal is using this as a way out” world
So many things to ponder