Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 5 [6/15] - Mafoa win, Everybody (including chloe) loses

[WindwardAway]

Same with Centuries, but not to the same extreme because afaik nobody has scumread him for the entire game like they have with Chloe

[WindwardAway]

(gonna ignore the spectator like)

[WindwardAway]

I really should ISO Gorta fully before EoD, I might do that now during breakfast

[WindwardAway]

Then I’ll look at Cents again

[Centuries]

damn even uninformed spec chat hates me as a slot

[Shurian]

(Ignore that, I misclicked while scrolling down: Thank you very much)

[Centuries]

you can just say that you hate me smh

[WindwardAway]

I hate reading you lol

[katze]

Apparently a spectator accidentally mobile-liked some posts, please ignore it ty

[Chloe]

@osieorb18

People don’t listen to dead townies enough.

Osie

@osieorb18

I slept through EoD.

Thoughts so far:

• Chloe is town on a pure tone read of pretty much any handful of her posts I’ve read.
• Windward is scummy.
• Firekitten is a scumlean scumread. The way they have presented cases has generally felt disingenuous.
• Centuries is somewhere on the slightly scummy side of null.
• FULL ISO’d Grace. Newb town.
• FULL ISO’d Gorta. I’m leaning scum here. Disconnect with the thread is real but Gorta seems like they’re not even trying to get their wits about them.
• Leafia is okay. Not a priority for me at the moment.
• I have mixed feelings on how Blizer’s handled the EoD but I’m not convinced yet that they are scum.
• Has Light done anything useful? I’m leaning town on tone in a few posts, but there’s so much spam there.
• Sulit is just memeing in 90% of her posts and not doing nearly enough. I’m down to execute that with fire.

Towniest

Chloe
Grace

Light
Leafia
Blizer

Centuries
Gorta

Windward
Firekitten
Sulit

Scummiest

@osieorb18

Okay, I think I actually believe that Wind believed those posts when they wrote them.

We need to PoE down to 3? Okay. Centuries’ post is spammy nonsense, but I sorta want to give it props because if they’re scum, it’s some pretty excessive spammy nonsense. And I like the sulit read.

I still don’t want to seriously PoE Light or Leafia because their posts were boring.

So if Sulit isn’t a thing for toDay (which might change soon), then…

FIrekitten/Gorta/Blizer is where I’m looking at on PoE.

@osieorb18

Also Light bitching up a storm about dropping two places in one player’s readslist is hilariously scummy.

@osieorb18

@Aelin

I was pointing on an inconsistency, osie.

Except it’s not an inconsistency. If I have you at the townier end of null as mentioned in my reads and move two people up higher, then you’re going to be on the scummier end of null. When the PoE is 4 people (number of scum plus 1) then you become part of the PoE.

@osieorb18

@Aelin

I really do not give a fat flying fuck if you scumread me. But the whole point is to find people who aren’t acting naturally.

Overreacting to someone scumreading you and then trying to pass it off as not being bothered seems to be not acting naturally. Maybe you should find and vote for yourself.

@osieorb18

I mostly just sorta felt Blizer was a bit trolly. Doesn’t lend itself to a positive gut feeling. But since I didn’t have much more than that, I left them at null.

@osieorb18

In all seriousness, the tempo of the thread in regards to firekitten being just this level of slowness means the wagon is probably on point.

@osieorb18

@Firekitten

literally 3 consensus town is on chloe and yet there are 3 wolves

Chloe is literally being spewed wolf here

None of the players on Chloe are consensus town. You’re pushing a false narrative like usual.

@osieorb18

Where was I? Oh yeah.

I need 2 townreads out of:

Windward
Grace
Centuries
Light
Gorta
Sulit

I really liked Windward’s long posts, the whole double draft thing, and if they are scum, that does take notable skill to do during the night phase.

Grace
Centuries
Light
Gorta
Sulit

That does leave me with 5 players which is enough for a solve, but if I want to feel more confident, I can go to 4 and have an extra elim built in for LyLO reconsideration. Funniest part of this: This mostly matches some of my OG notes when entering the thread.

G2H, I think if I was going to remove one from that list, I’d want to remove Grace since if Grace is in LyLO, they’re one of the easiest players to case once more. I might actually experiment with biased casing there for shits and giggles, but that seems awk tbh.

At the same time, Sulit is the most assuredly wolfy there and Grace does work well on Sulit teams. Sulit may have tried for a derpy distance too. I remember making that mental note; I can find the post(s) if someone wants me to do so.

I really want to hold on to the Light gutread especially after they failed the reaction test.

Uh-oh, I might make scum too scared of me to make it into LyLO.

@osieorb18

The weird thing for me is that when I was condescending and called him useless he flipped out and when I pushed it as a reaction test leaning into a potential determination.

^ on Light

@osieorb18

I already had a strong townread on Chloe from tone (mostly surrounding the EoD). I liked Arete’s take as well. Firekitten I’ve come around to being town based on how they’ve been interacting with people during this day phase. They both appear agendaless, too. Chloe maybe shouldn’t make it into LyLO given the animosity towards her throughout the game, but that’s more of a problem for future me.

@osieorb18

I kinda felt like on a micro level he had some bad faith pushes, but on a macro level he felt better, and the micro level can be explained more by bias. The gamestate also feels decently like double town wagons.

Level 9001 reads.

^ on FK

@osieorb18

Outside of the FK/Chloe split, my towncore seems pretty good.

@osieorb18

Leafia had shifted into towncore based on recent posts and the back and forth in which I sorted them.

With Grace, I don’t towncore newb!town reads usually since newb!town is too close to newb!wolf.

Light and Gorta are my own gut screaming at me that they don’t seem townie.

@osieorb18

I mean, I essentially just have a PoE that you can follow for a solve…

Once Cent, Light, Gorta, and Sulit are gone, if the game is still ongoing, the remaining three out of Osie, Chloe, Blizer, FK, Leaf, Wind, Grace can reevaluate. That’s should be a relatively comfortable F3 for any of the players there.

@osieorb18

The thing that bugged me there was that unlike Windward’s two walls, Cents’ felt much more stream of consciousness fakeable.

@osieorb18

I think Grace/Gorta/Light are all about the same for me in terms of contribution to the game tbh.

Cent and sulit appear more actively scummy.

@osieorb18

@Aelin

That’s because you’re skimming me instead of reading

We’re not going to see eye-to-eye at all, are we?

Yeah when I start seeing what looks to be edgy spam my eyes glaze over, but I’d given your ISO at least as much of a look as suilt’s.

@osieorb18

@Chloe

gotcha

dont you townread (or lean) him now? or am i mistaken

wondering how you got there on him

Ah, yeah, I felt like I was watching him respond very organically to the thread.

@osieorb18

@Centuries

Wind you’re conf biased out of this world

I cannot name any reaction that I possibly could’ve that would’ve not made me look worse here

Why do you always sound like you’re trying to be self-aware?

@osieorb18

Legacy Post:

REMINDER TO @Chloe @Blizer @Firekitten @Leafia @WindwardAway:

Sulit/Centuries/Gorta/Grace, then F3.

Arete

@Arete

Windward’s posting over the last hour or so has been legitimately wolfy

why do people townread her again

like she has some individually good wallposts but on a macro level her reasons for voting Marshal over Chloe feel like she’s trying to force herself to come to a specific conclusion (which is wolfy regardless of their alignments, like, I’m not saying ‘so this makes Marshal town’) which is kind of TMIish

@Arete

a lot of the time when you look at the evidence for them it feels like you had your conclusion already in mind, like earlier when you were saying that the Marl nightkill made her more likely to be town because wolves probably killed Marl to make her look suspicious (despite not having any particular reason to think that was the case, like, it’s not like we can compare it to other nightkills this game or whatever), the thought process is almost there but not quite there

that’s not the only example but it’s the first one that comes to mind

@Arete

@WindwardAway

I don’t know how the Marshal/Chloe thing comes across as TMI; I actually don’t know what about it specifically could be seen as TMI and I’d like more of an explanation on it

when I said it was TMI it wasn’t, like, being confident you were TMIing them as any alignment in specific, more, it felt like you were trying to force a specific conclusion (that Marshal is wolfier than Chloe) rather than your thoughts on them following naturally from the evidence, which I thought might indicate a perspective of already knowing their alignments, rather than having an uninformed perspective of being able to actually solve them

you say that you think Marshal is wolfier, but that’s not really my objection, my objection is more to the fact that whenever you look at any evidence that might pull you either way it feels like you’re making yourself come out with a townread on Marshal

@WindwardAway

Also, I don’t think people have been slapping townreads on me. I’m still in the PoE of at least half the players. Only Chloe has TR’d me afaik, so idk where Arete’s getting this idea that I seem to be consensus TR’d.

I mostly wanted to know about Marshal’s TR on you

I never said you were a consensus TR and I’m not really sure how you got that from my post

@WindwardAway

Arete says I’ve given Marl’s death as a reason to townread Chloe, when Chloe is still sitting in my PoE and definitely not what I’d call a townread (the only thing I’ve said is that Marshal is below Chloe in my readlist, which I still stand by).

I honestly don’t know if what I said about the night kill got misconstrued and that other people thought that I specifically meant that Chloe is town. That was never the intention; I just meant, as I explained earlier, that probably the wolfteam is not exactly Arete/Chloe because it would be a better wolf move to discredit Marl and let him live as opposed to straight-out killing him because he had deadly accuracy.

the reason I thought that you were giving Marl’s death as a reason to townread Chloe (in the sense of thinking her more likely town, not in the sense of taking her out of your PoE) is that the post of yours I quoted was specifically in reply to a post about Chloe:

@Centuries

yes!!

Marl was agaisnt Chloe

Marl died

Marshal is agaisnt Chloe

What happens there

@WindwardAway

because I think Marl was specifically killed to throw us off the wolf trail, and not because he was right

like yes

you replied to a post that was specifically about Chloe , defending Chloe, giving the Marl kill as a reason to defend her

and didn’t say anything about any of his other reads

maybe that’s not what you meant but I really think I made the logical assumption here

@WindwardAway

So here Arete cases me as wolfy because my actions don’t line up with what I’ve been saying, and I’m not sure if it’s just a case of town misinterpreting me but it feels more like a wolf grasping for ways to twist what I’ve said into potential scumtells for the sake of pushing me.

the thing I was implying was that you were a wolf with Chloe, and that that was leading you to put her in your PoE because you didn’t want to actually clear her (since newbie wolves are often worried that will make them look associated), while also avoiding pushing her

which is why I specifically responded to one of your posts about how you totally have Chloe in your PoE and are definitely not townreading her

@WindwardAway

They were sitting closer to my nullreads before, and now I kind of want to drop them farther down than Chloe.

also the phrasing here is kind of weird, like, why specifically Chloe

@Arete

what I meant was that it felt like you were forcing yourself to come out with Marshal as wolfier than Chloe/Chloe as townier

@Arete

@WindwardAway

Sulit

Arete
Marshal
Chloe
FK

@WindwardAway

Sulit

FK
Chloe
Arete
Marshal

how did you get from Marshal above Chloe to Marshal below Chloe? walk me through your thought process

also walk me through your thought process on FK moving up

@Arete

okay but you’ve been making the argument that you’d rather vote Marshal than Chloe for like, the entire day, way before the current wagons shook out the way they were

@Arete

nod

I think I find it easier to see Marshal’s move as coming from town than you-if-you-are-town do because I also thought Mist was playing to her wolf-meta so it’s easy for me to see Marshal’s push there as motivated by a villager who legitimately thought she was a wolf

if you’re town I can vaguely see how you might find that harder to see, since you were repping a townread (or townlean, or whatever, don’t go yell at me about this post just because somewhere in your Iso you put her in the PoE) on her

@Arete

oooh if we’re doing shitty preflips I have one too

Marshal/Gorta >>rand to be aligned regardless of alignment

@Arete

I think treeman is only a wolf if Marshal is

@Arete

me: ‘what if Marshal and Chloe are V/V’

every slot that’s been going UTR today and coasting off of the Marshal Chloe dome (and some that haven’t, to be fair, but that’s not the point): ‘wow Arete must be a wolf’

@Arete

Wind
sulit
maybe you/FK/Conroy (not as, like, the three of you, but like, all of you individually fit into that world)

where wolves are if me/marshal v/v

@Arete

@WindwardAway

It literally has nothing to do with whether I do or don’t like your takes.

I was specifically addressing your posting in the last ~half hour or so, where you got a lot more aggressive on the ‘but what if Arete is a WOLF who is PUSHING AGENDA’ train after I suggested that Marshal/Chloe could be V/V

@Arete

if Wind had like, considered my arguments and disagreed, that would have been fine

the issue I had with their post was that they jumped straight from the fact that I was arguing for Marshal/Chloe being potentialyl V/V to ‘Arete must be TMIing’ rather than actually considering my arguments, which if they are V/V makes sense from the perspective of a wolf who wants to maintain the status quo

@Arete

okay

so why did you jump instantly to the ‘Arete is TMIing them and also pushing agenda, or something’ conclusion rather than ‘Arete is making a read that they actually believe in’

@Arete

I think both of your responses to me suggesting that Chloe/Marshal could be V/V kind of suck, I was focusing more on you because I think you’re independently wolfier

(Litten’s in particular feels aligned with you but yours feels antialigned with Litten so I don’t really know what to make of that)

@Arete

and see

this is another example of the thing you’ve been doing where you have the conclusion in mind before you actually make the post?

@WindwardAway

See a potential derpclear? clear them for towncred. See a potential ML opportunity? Push it.

like you specifically are considering this only from the perspective of ‘why would Arete do this as scum’ and not ‘why would Arete do this as town,’ like, you’re not considering the possibility that I might … be trying to clear villagers and push wolves…, you’re starting with a specific conclusion

@Arete

@WindwardAway

@Arete

(Litten’s in particular feels aligned with you but yours feels antialigned with Litten so I don’t really know what to make of that)
[/quote]

uh can you explain this a little more?

Litten specifically going after my vague shade on you and accusing that in particular of being agenda is a chainsaw-defense of you, which is a fairly standard way for wolves to push agenda on people who are pushing their partners (not that villagers never do this, but), which makes you more likely to be aligned, but you going ‘why are you pushing ME for this and not LITTEN for doing the exact same thing’ really doesn’t look W/W, which mkes me think you’re less likely to be aligned

@Arete

@WindwardAway

and then you tried to derpclear me for suddenly worrying there were 4 wolves, but when I said I just forgot I read the OP you jumped on me for being wolfy.

this is a misrepresentation of what I did

me saying that you were being wolfy has literally nothing to do with you reading or not reading the OP

@Arete

Litten is doing it more than everyone else and specifically asking questions to keep it going, whereas everyone else’s commentary on ranch is mostly in response to him/his questions which is less wolfy since people are naturally inclined to respond to questions

@Arete

yes it is

I think that as villager you would care more about what was going on between me and Wind, and less about ranch dressing

@Arete

I think a villager would be less likely to drown out the thread while other interesting things are going on , like the Pokemon talk from a few nights ago or whatever isn’t wolfy because nothing was really happening, but I think a villager would care about the things that are actually happening in the game thread more than about ranch dressing

@Arete

reasons why Chloe/Marshal are probably V/V

@Arete

@WindwardAway

Ok so if you think neither Marshal nor Chloe should be yeeted, who do you think should be voted out today?

@Centuries

I’m a bit more weirded out by the lack of conclusion to your wall, like who goes over then?

[this was originally written to Wind but then I saw that Centuries had asked basically the same question, I’m lazy so I’m not going to change the pronouns]

I think … if you gave me a gun with a single bullet right now, and told me that if I killed a wolf I would win, and killed a villager I would lose, I would shoot Litten. I’m really not a fan of his general behavior when I first brought up the V/V point (/started pushing on you), he was misrepresenting a lot of my points and unlike you he has enough experience that he should be playing better? (that probably sounds mean, pretend I found a way to phrase that that doesn’t make me sound like a dick, I swear I’m not trying to be mean)

but I’m worried that I’m biased because he’s specifically pushing me

also I’m pretty sure I’m not voting him right now, I should probably fix that

I am open to discussion of who to yeet that’s not Marshal/Chloe, outside the two of them I specifically find Leafia/Grace/Blizer/somewhat Trochi to be townie and I think Gorta is town if Marshal is

@Arete

@Centuries

I don’t think that if for example, a wolf were to win the thunderdome in a W/V world, they’d always die the next day

pretty much the entire game has said that if Chloe/Marshal flips town they want to yeet the other one tomorrow

like maybe it’s fewer people than literally everyone? but it feels like basically everyone

and I haven’t seen anyone else argue for not that

@Arete

@WindwardAway

Ok, so why haven’t you been pushing for a wagon on FK

because I spent literally 2 and a half hours writing a wallpost and I can’t do two things at once

(fwiw you did trend slightly up while I was writing the wallpost but not for, like, good reasons)

also because I’m not actually sure who the wolves are!! I’m more confident in Marshal/Chloe V/V than in any individual wolfread and I’m not even 100 percent confident in that one

@WindwardAway

But instead I’ve seen you kind of dodging the current wagons and pushing that they’re V/V. It’s not so much the fact that you see them as V/V that bothers me right now, as the fact that you are actively pushing people off both the wagons, which to me is indicative there’s a high likelihood that one of them is a wolf, one of them is a villager, and you don’t want us to accidentally yeet the wolf among the two of them when they’re your teammate.

why can’t I be a villager that has correctly identified the wagons as V/V

like if you are in fact a villager and you make all of your reads based on ‘Arete is a wolf, what does that make the people they’re commenting on?’ your reads are going to suck

@Arete

@Firekitten

literally shut up arete

no.

@Arete

ftr Litten telling me to shut up when he claims to scumread me is super wolfy, he’s not speaking to me the way people speak to people they genuinely believe are wolves

@Arete

@WindwardAway

when did I ever do this?

when you were like ‘the fact that you’re trying to push people off both of the wagons indicates that one of them is a wolf and you’re trying to save your partner’

you know

the thing I literally quoted directly above my paragraph

@Arete

okay but like

part of what I think is weird about this is-- you’re claiming to think I’m a wolf, right? and in general it bothers me a lot more when people I think are villagers make arguments I disagree with than when people I think are wolves do , so if you actually think I’m a wolf I’m not sure why you would be getting upset about this

@Arete

@Chloe

who has had the absolute worst reaction to your case thusfar and why

I dont mean fk telling you to shut up
I mean your case

I mean FK telling me to shut up was a reaction to my case and is probably the worst one in the thread

but if I can’t say that then I guess … Wind more-or-less ignoring all the actual arguments to focus on – I’m not totally clear what their point is, but they object to something about how I say I don’t know who the wolves are while also giving a PoE of five people? or maybe how I say that you and Marshal are V/V without being absolutely confident of who the actual wolves are? I’m not totally sure which – either way the thing they’re doing is kind of wolfy because they’re sidestepping basically all of the actual content of my argument to nitpick the fact that it’s not good at being a case on who we should vote out instead, when it wasn’t intended to be in the first place

@Arete

Litten – when I first brought up the possibility of Marshal/Chloe V/V, he started misconstruing what I was saying in a way that felt kind of agenda-y. When I posted my wallpost, he got upset, and his reasoning for getting upset didn’t really make sense if he actually believed I was a wolf, which he claimed to. Also, he’s been addressing me in a way that doesn’t feel like he’s talking to a player he genuinely believes is a wolf. (Also, I’m still kind of not a fan of how it seemed like he knew Marl was going to die right at SoD, but this is sort of a weak point.)

Wind – A lot of her reads feel like she had the answer in mind before making the read, which points to her thought process not being totally genuine. Also, her response to my arguments that Marshal and Chloe were V/V was kind of weh – rather than actually responding to my main points, she got really hung up on some sort of argument about me giving a five-person PoE (still kind of unclear about what her actual issue with this was to be totally honest)

idk Centuries I guess, I feel less strongly about this one – Some of his arguments haven’t really sat right with me (e.g. saying that we shouldn’t kill outside of Chloe/Marshal because if we kill a villager it’ll suck, without really acknowledging that it would also suck if we killed in them and killed a villager). Also, he’s claimed wolf several times, and he really likes jokingly wolfclaiming as wolf for some reason.

@Arete

Litten saying this but that seemingly not affecting their read whatsoever indicates that he’s actively pushing an agenda btw

like he’s not trying to solve my slot, he’s trying to find things to make me look bad

@Arete

the fact that you apparently did not find a single post in my entire D1 that you could construe as wolfy and that didn’t affect your read on me is agenda-y! like if I were trying to case someone and literally all of their posts were fine that would … make me consider the possibility that I was wrong…

@Arete

the issue isn’t ‘you weren’t saying I was pushing agenda when I was pushing Chloe’ it’s ‘as soon as I looked outside of Chloe and started pushing Wind, you instantly accused me of pushing agenda, even though Wind literally hasn’t flipped yet’

@Arete

…Wind I want to respond to your wallpost but I’m not really sure I can because you literally don’t bring up any counterarguments to my points on why Chloe and Marshal is V/V besides a couple of ‘well he could be doing X as a wolf,’ you’re just like ‘but this would also make sense if Arete is a wolf trying to get attention off of wolf!Marshal’ which … isn’t an argument …

@Arete

my GTH scumteam right now is Litten/Wind/Centuries but that’s not, like, a confident legacy read that I want people to unquestioningly sheep if I die

@Arete

I mean

Wind has a lot of words

they just … don’t respond to any of my actual arguments?

like if I try to trace a line through their thought process they are at the very least not considering my arguments in good faith , I am not calling them lock wolf for that because I know they’re new and it’s possible that they’re just really tunnelled on a me!wolf world such that they’re not allowing themself to consider a world where I’m town + right, but their entire response to my wallpost can be summarized as ‘since Arete is saying this, Marshal is probably a wolf, because Arete is trying to push away from the top two wagons,’ like that’s not even a mischaracterization it’s the crux of their argument

the fact that they have a lot of words doesn’t change that

@Arete

Wind if you are actually town here, which I doubt but technically isn’t impossible, I think you should seriously rethink how you make reads, you’ve basically spent the entire day confbiasing yourself based on the conclusion you want to see and only evaluating things from that perspective and considering whether it fits with that perspective, rather than actually considering other possibilities and trying to figure out what makes the most sense, if you’re actually a villager that’s a bad habit to be in and your reads will be more accurate if you can break it

@Arete

also if I go over today the literal worst thing you all can do is start off tomorrow by being like ‘well we were supposed to kill Chloe/Marshal yesterday, time to turn our brains off and do that today,’ if you do that I will legitimately lose respect for you as a player even if they are a wolf , like if you ultimately land there I can’t hold that against you (except in as much as that means you won’t be voting Litten) but you have to actually think about it

@Arete

@Centuries

why chloe its my wagon not yours losers! make your own chloe wagon i claim this one!!

this is kind of townie help

@Arete

if Chloe is a villager I think it’s a thought that doesn’t come from a place of having TMI that she’s a villager and I don’t really think you’re W/W with her at this point

@Arete

Grace Leafia Chloe towncore

Blizer Marshal Gorta-if-Marshal-is-V skirting around the edges

@Arete

plenty of people in this game have reads that don’t match mine and most of them are people I townread

the problem isn’t that your reads disagree with them it’s that your thought process starts with a read and then makes up reasons to justify it

@Arete

like

you are a reasonably intelligent person as far as I can tell

which makes it hard to believe that you genuinely believe that my issue with your slot is that you disagree with me

@Arete

@WindwardAway

I have reasons and then I give reads

okay but

nearly every read this game shows signs of you having only considered one side of it/having started with the conclusion in mind

@Arete

if you don’t want me to accuse you of misrepresenting everything I’m saying you can start by not misrepresenting everything I’m saying

@Arete

I’m not going to pretend your arguments against me are better than they are

@Arete

you’re complaining that I’m just accusing you of misrepresenting my arguments but that is literally what you’re doing, I’m not going to pretend you have a coherent case when you literally have yet to make a single argument that doesn’t start with your conclusion and find ways to justify it

@Arete

and tomorrow Wind is going to be like ‘wow, it sure is unfortunate how we yeeted Arete and they flipped town, if only they hadn’t been so abrasive in response to my arguments, this sure is unfortunate and definitely not my fault at all’ nd you all are going to let them endgame and win

@Arete

nearly every read you have made today has solely considered why something could in theory make sense from the conclusion you wanted to reach, without considering whether it makes sense from the opposite perspective

@Arete

STOP TWISTING MY WORDS FOR GOD’S SAKE

@Arete

I AM NOT SAYING ‘EVER HAVING READS IS BAD’ I’M SAYING YOUR THOUGHT PROCESS HS FAKE

@Arete

yeah, whatever, I am thoroughly unconvinced that you all aren’t going to take the opportunity to CFD while I’m asleep

@Arete

yeah see when I tried explaining things calmly Wind blatantly misrepresented literally all of my arguments and got salty when I called her out on it

so

@Arete

appealing to your relative calmness to try to make me look bad is wolfy

@Arete

also if I go over today the literal worst thing you all can do is start off tomorrow by being like ‘well we were supposed to kill Chloe/Marshal yesterday, time to turn our brains off and do that today,’ if you do that I will legitimately lose respect for you as a player even if they are a wolf , like if you ultimately land there I can’t hold that against you (except in as much as that means you won’t be voting Litten) but you have to actually think about it

@Arete

ftr, I’m not positive if I’ll wake up for EoD (I’m going to try to but I acknowledge the possibility that I sleep through my alarm), Litten is unironically ~lock wolf and if I go over today that’s the single most important part of my legacy to sheep

Wind is not lock wolf, I think it’s likely but I see more than zero worlds where they’re just a badly playing villager

but you always always always need to kill Litten tomorrow if I go over here, this is a very high-confidence read and it’s important that people sheep it

@Arete

Arete legacy post

okay so I’m going to start out this post by saying that I’ve given consideration to it and given some things pertaining to my sleep schedule, I think the healthiest thing for me to do is to not try to make EoD. I know this is probably selfish or whatever, I don’t care, if you’re a dick about it I’ll be, like, mildly annoyed with you

but. yeah. this is my legacy post, because I am in fact aware that doing this makes it way more likely that the yeet gets strongarmed onto me. I’m ?trying? to include my confidence level so that you know which reads you should and shouldn’t sheep.

People who are villagers

Grace: probably one of the purest slots I’ve ever seen in my entire time playing FM, I’m not going to spend too much time explaining this because I don’t think literally anyone disagrees with it. also that one post about dinner exists.

Leafia: This one is also pretty consensus (I’ve seen a couple people disagreeing with it but mostly people not familiar with Leafiameta), I think that given Leafiameta her overall number of independent thoughts/willingness to make reads that are against the thread consensus is a good look for her. Like, if you compare with Clown Fiesta, I’m pretty sure she literally did not have a single thought all game that was anything but a direct parrot of thread consensus, and that’s the general pattern in her wolfgame.

Chloe: I’ve explained most of my reasons for thinking she’s town in P#6129 (the big post on her and Marshal being probably V/V), even if you disagree with all of the gamestate stuff I think the macroread on Chloe stands on its own and is enough to put her here, I also think that her attempts at sorting through the game post-that-big-post have been super waterfally/from an uninformed perspective.

just to explain on the bookmark thing a little, because that’s legitimately super townie and it’s non-obvious why: Chloe as wolf has no reason to bookmark a post Centuries made about how he’ll eat glass or whatever it was, with three random unrelated people, and I think it would be incredibly specific for her to think of making that up

People who are vaguely floating around peripheral villagers

Gorta: I think some of his derps are very likely to come from town, like the thing about not really getting what happened at EoD1. Also, at various points he’s displayed a sort of hubris that I think is villagery, e.g. him acting like I should be scared of him, I think that’s an attitude that he’s more likely to present as villager (albeit not that much more likely, regardless of his alignment he has an inflated idea of his own skill). I’m pretty sure nearly all of his reads are wrong but that’s not actually wolfy for him, don’t use that as a point against him if he’s alive in lategame.

Marshal: See the big Chloe-Marshal V/V wallpost, he’s done some things that kind of sketched me out since I wrote that wallpost (e.g. he accepted it really quickly, also I’m not sure if it makes sense for him to have nearly so much confidence in my read on Chloe?) but I have him above rand town

Blizer: Mist’s posts kind of sucked, but Blizer coming in guns blazing with passion was fairly townie, particularly given the situation he was in

Light: This is honestly only here because of his big wallpost that he wrote in response to my big wallpost, but it had a lot of depth of thought to it which is something he struggles with as wolf, so he gets to be above the null line for now

idk, could go either way

Osie: Trochi had like one moment that looked like a legitimate derpclear, otherwise no one in that slot has really done much to move the needle

sulit: she has a lot of WiM for wolflit but the stuff Chloe quoted with her progression on Chloe/Marshal is kind of

Here be wolves:

Centuries: honestly went back and forth on which category to put this in, this one or the one just above, but I think he fits better here? he had a generally kind of weird response to me daring to have the audacity to suggest that Chloe and Marshal might be V/V, he’s jokingly wolfclaimed in a kind of self-aware way, and he’s had some posts that rubbed me the wrong way, e.g. him being like ‘Arete and Wind could be V/V? what if?’ without actually acting on that whatsoever

Wind: basically every read they’ve made this game has been forcing a conclusion/only considering things from the PoV of the conclusion they want, e.g. with one of their reads on me they were like ‘well Arete has been derpclearing people, and also pushing people, which could come from a wolf trying to pocket people and push miselims’ but never tried to consider or evaluate whether it made sense from a town perspective (they haven’t just been doing it with their read on me, they’ve been doing it with literally all their reads, this is just the first one that came to mind). they’ve also been misrepresenting more-or-less everything I’ve said, there are a handful of times where I can sort of see how someone could come to the conclusion they did once they explained it but for most of them … I have enough faith in their intelligence to believe that it wasn’t just a misunderstanding. Their reaction to my big wallpost also sucked, they basically tried to shade me by nitpicking minor details of what exactly my PoE was (which wasn’t remotely the point) and largely ignored the actual arguments until they were actually pressed on it. I think if I do end up flipping they’ll be very easy to read tomorrow based on how they end up reacting?

Litten: pretty much an outed wolf, has spent most of the day misrepresenting what I’ve been saying and ignoring my explanations so that he can accuse me of pushing agenda on Wind, despite the fact that Wind hasn’t even flipped, he also seemed like he knew coming into the day that Marl was going to die, and his reaction overall to me saying that Chloe and Marshal were potentially V/V has been actually awful. Kill this slot always, it pretty much never flips town.

@Arete

other random notes

all of you are abjectly terrible at preflips, please stop doing them, like even if you’re right your thought processes behind making them are rand at best and in some cases probably worse

relatedly: Wind/Litten are not clear from being W/W off of interactions. Blizermist/Marshal are not clear from being W/W off of interactions. there are probably other pairs this applies to but this is the first thing that comes to mind?

Okay
I
Compiled posts i find to be important from the 2 dead nightkills other than marl
Sorry marl, you had like 24h worth of content and you also tunneled me the entire time so you dont get to be included

Arete was REALLY confident in FK being a wolf
Like extremely extremely confident

Osie turned around on the slot because he thought FK was reacting naturally in the thread
Both Arete and Osie overlapped in Conroy scumreads (though Arete wasn’t as confident as they were on FK, and Osie… might have partially scumread Conroy as w/w with sulit? I think? Idk)
Arete had some interactions with Wind that were Really Bad™

I can’t quote all of Marshal/sulit’s posts bc it slows my browser down a ton, but i can quote their final legacies and shit

Marshal

@Marshal

Alright look. These slots are town. I see at most 1 wolf here

Light
Gorta*
Grace
Osie (least confident outside of sulit/gorta but still applies)
Leafia
Blizer
sulit*

None of these get touched until lylo. INCLUDING Gorta. He could fit on some wolfteams but I think he’s a villager right now. Thread has given a huge “fuck you” to me every time I try to village read him. I think the guy’s a villager. Same applies to sulit.

Here’s the contentious slots

Arete
Chloe

I think wolf!arete (No matter what team they are on) don’t break up a me/chloe fight if we’re v/v. I think it’s a very good spot for them if one and then the other dies and town is nowhere. Gamestate didn’t need to be shaken up. If they’re town, I’ll trust their read.

Arete has had many many times they’ve said something i’d consider really villagery but I could still see them as a wolf.

That being said both could theoretically be wolf wolf as well. It’s within the realm of possibility. wolfrete could find themselves nexxt if chloe is wolf. It’s worth considering. This is likely the case in litten!v worlds but i dont know.

He’res the slots i’d consider the “PoE”. the “Maybe it’s just this easy” team. Is it this easy? Probably not.

Wind
Centuries
Fk

Centuries honestly the probable wolfiest of the bunch but that’s neither here nor there.

As for potential teams?

Wind/Centuries/FK is the “is it this easy” team

Arete + Chloe + Centuries is the only real w/w team I could see. thats Arete/Chloe/PoE. I don’t think arete is ever aligned with Wind or FK.

Other teams could be, like, 2 PoE + Someone in my towncore, or Arete/Chloe/Someoneinmytowncore.

that’s where i’m at

I hope this helps

probably doesn’t.

Marshal heavily scumread Conroy (seemingly mostly for his EoD2?), and really disliked FK
He basically aligned with Arete’s PoE

Sulit absolutely hated the Wind/Wazza slot, and also left a legacy of townreading Grace
Also wanted FK out because of Arete’s legacy
Didn’t give a strong stance on Conroy but he ended in her PoE (she also said something about him lowering her in his reads to spew them w/w which we melded on lol)

Here’s the case on Wind:

@sulit

SUlit wolfcase

i miss sulit

She noticed that everyone skirted around reading Wind after she posted her case on them

I’m willing to sheep both Marshal and Arete on the fact that gorta is a villager
(I’ve also gotten villa vibes from him recently, as well as in my overnight read)

---

I think we need to vote within Conroy/FK/me

I don’t think we can go another day of the same shit, and any of our flips will help further the gamestate
But it’d be best to get a wolf flip!

I think I’ll willing to stake the game on Arete’s confidence on FK
I was 100% confident in Arete being villa
And Arete was 100% confident in FK being a wolf
So I think that’s
Something I should put some stock in

Even though I think FK is likelier to be a villager atm because of mindmelds/vca
I admit that Arete is a much better player than me, and they were supremely confident in the FK read
And something doesnt sit well with me about the fact that FK has dropped the Conroy pressure (and his admittance that we should resolve within us 3 today) after Conroy expressed a scumread on him (and Wind) which is ehhhhhhh

Tldr
I am willing to vote FK today
I won’t even blame Arete if we’re wrong, even though a big reason I’m willing to do this is because of their confidence
I’ll just blame myself for not putting in as much effort to this game as i know i could have
And also for being a shitty player

[Chloe]

Every time a villager dies and we don’t listen to anything they had to say, we take two steps back

We’ve been consistently wrong
Our PoE has proven to be invalid, and our towncore is falling apart

I think it’s time we listen to the people who died
Because they died for a reason

[Chloe]

If this gets me yeeted then so be it

I’ll post a legacy in the morning

/vote Firekitten

[Centuries]

pog?

am i being accounted for? pogu??

[Aelin]

I just noticed Arete roasted the hell out of my wolfgame

[Chloe]

The state of wagons shows that we have zero organization

Zero clue what the hell we’re doing

And the people we’re most content with voting are likely being given to us via scum agenda - taking advantage of the fact that we’re cracking open our towncores and lacking in confidence

So I’m going to listen to the most confident person in this game, who happened to die n2

[Chloe]

Gorta is a villager, I’ll accept that
I can see it, too

I thought he was a villager in my overnight read, and I also agree with both Arete/Marshal on the slot

[Centuries]

sadge I think Gorta/FK could be W/W seeing who he’s pushing widepeeponothappy

[Centuries]

but if it’s gorta/fk i dont get why im not being pusheddddddddddd the kill is literally a frame kill

[Centuries]

that means villagers are pushing for villagers

maybe

[Centuries]

id call wagons v/v but there’s no wagons