what do you think the EoD2 wagonomics indicate?
oh nvm I’m blind, you seem to have reached the conclusion I did, although maybe for different reasons
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more of my notes overnight, woo:
I think scum actually split their votes between the two wagons
…and going through Aelin’s ISO, I realize the wagons may once again have been T/T
or actually, EVO could still be scum with Aelin, but lol is not.
I… kind of don’t think Intensify is, either.
Aelin tried voting lol first, but switched to Intensify (presumably opportunistic vote) because nobody was joining the lol wagon. I didn’t notice right away and happened to switch my vote to lol, thinking nobody was voting Intensify.
Voting patterns of Aelin trying to copy my vote to solidify a wagon between lol and Intensify are interesting, and if I’m reading it correctly, neither of those are scum because either would have built a counterwagon to EVO. The difference was that Tilgarial was willing to vote lol over Intensify, so we stuck with wagoning lol.
Tilgarial has a chance to be a wolf with Aelin. Not like it would’ve mattered between lol/Intensify, judging by Aelin’s votes, but if EVO is scum then Tilga had a hand in building the counterwagon. If EVO’s town then Tilga might just be town because I don’t think voting between lol/Intensify mattered so much. Both looked scummy at that point and both are probably town.
I remember at some point in time, Aelin voted Eli as well, but I have to look into her case on Eli again for information because I don’t remember any of it besides implying Eli was hedging. Could have been distancing because she didn’t say anything about Eli at EoD when I attempted to vote him.
Any thoughts on these? Who am I misclearing, if any? My reads have been… pretty wrong, and restructuring my readlist didn’t exactly help. I think maybe I restructured it too much by taking Aelin out of my scumleans but I’m trying to remember specifically who told me Aelin wasn’t likely to have killed Min for their readlist. The reason I suggested that Aelin was scum even though Min had doubts about wolf!Aelin was because I think Min knows Aelin well enough that they should have been able to at least intuit part of their read on her, and maybe I should’ve said that earlier in the day but I just let it drop and also let Aelin convince me she wasn’t a yeet target at least for D2 (boy, that post aged well).
feels like I’m playing minesweeper and trying to clear the space around the mines right now (I’ve been playing too much of it lately tbh so maybe that’s why)
I had a hunch at least one wolf was active at EoD and possibly more than one. Not a very creative hunch, since it’s very common, but at least I know I was right.
also (and this is mostly directed toward the NUFfians or anyone who hasn’t played with me before), I’m very vocal as a player and can be a town leader as either alignment. I wouldn’t say I’m a strong player in the sense that I’m correct very often (spoiler: I’m not), but that I can push my reads in a way that draws attention to them. People familiar with me know this, and if they can get me to agree with their reads, it ends up functioning as a signal boost for them. I think Aelin was trying to capitalize on this at EoD as well as gauge where the consensus was, so I’m left trying to figure out if EVO was also trying to do the same yesterday, based on wagonomics and the randed yeet in particular.
Man, I never would’ve imagined how many slots an Aelin yeet would resolve, but her following my vote to attempt to secure a yeet on either lol or Intensify was badly needed information.
EVO is far from being cleared, and I can’t tell if he’s scum or a designated ML based on EoD2, but if I take into account the wagonomics from D1, and that Aelin was trying to sus him in the day and very weakly shading him the whole day, then jumped to joining Marl on the EVO wagon despite SRing Marl, as well as that EVO said that meta reads wouldn’t work on Aelin and probably neither would tone reads… It makes me lean toward wolf!EVO and that Aelin tried to save her teammate.
The one thing that confuses me is that I did follow EVO’s thoughts on D2 pretty well. Unless he specifically did it to pocket me, I still feel that there’s a nonzero chance he’s still town. I said I thought he might be softing PR, knowing I could be wrong, and I gave him the chance to roll with it. I backed him pretty much the whole time to see where it would lead, and he did, in fact get results (albeit very messy and -EV as eevee pointed out). I do believe he legitimately managed to establish Cloned as town with the RT, although I’m not sure what to think about his read on Intensify because I also thought Intensify reacted badly. I suppose that might mean it was just a poorly executed RT, though. Not everyone who does an RT is town, but not all town RTs go as planned, I’ll give it that. Also, lol didn’t want EVO to be the top wagon. Knowing his own alignment and having a read on EVO means that lol assumed the wagons were T/T and that’s why he was encouraging Gorta to tie them - exactly what I said wolves would not want to do the day before (and on that note, Gorta’s voting pattern at EoD2 never comes from scum; fight me if you think I’m wrong).
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The short version:
lol is town, congrats
Intensify is town, congrats
Gorta is town for weird reasons that I believe in
PKR is town
ClonedCheese is town
Eevee is a townlean
EVO is still a townlean but mostly because of vibes and because I decided I should have more faith in lol’s reads
Tilgarial is also back in (slight) townleans for now
PoE:
cdecora
Eli
GonZ
I hate to look like I’m being mean by putting most of the NUFfians in the PoE but GonZ never moved their vote off Cloned after Cloned claimed PR, and cdecora hasn’t used their vote for two days. Tilgarial could be w/w with Aelin, and I’m still somewhat suspicious of their neut theories, but they did not move to counterwagon against EVO the first time Aelin voted on lol, and did not want to vote Intensify at all. Since I don’t think Aelin would jump on a CFD to scum, nor start the wagon on them, I don’t think Tilga’s vote is scummy. The more I look at it, the less Tilga looks like scum tbh.
Eli is within both his town and scum ranges and at this point he should not just be floating in the readlist like that. Kind of scummy, honestly. That’s about all I have to say on him. Also, he said he’d be active D1 because he learned his lesson about getting ML’d for low activity in the Thing Game, but he went back to low activity during D2 and just sort of fluffed and left without giving any real content. And I don’t like how that looks.
I’m still kind of undecided on EVO but currently leaning toward town!EVO for his gambit. Not because it went as planned, and not because I don’t think a wolf could’ve done it, but because I was able to understand where his thoughts were on D2 for the most part.
People in my townleans are in townleans for the moment, but I’m not opposed to shifting them into the PoE if something catches my eye. People in my townreads are unlikely to move into the PoE unless a really compelling case arises against them.
Kinda sad and annoyed at myself that it was the RNG that saved me from making more bad reads tbh.
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While the random execution hit a mafia by will lf sheer luck, gaving the votes tied is 100% not a town move for me
Even if no wolf was in the tie, it was 3-8/4-7 at best, so odds definitely leaning away even in the best possible situation.
Having somebody that literally said to do that, while being in the tie, I wanna consider that openwolfing
/vote lol @Zone_Q11
I have more notes, particularly on my thought process regarding lol, but I skipped over that to post this part first
I went back and forth on lol’s slot and EVO’s slot but decided that lol and Intensify were both less likely to be scum than EVO because of how willing Aelin was to vote either of them
Vote Count
| Accused | Voters | Number |
|---|---|---|
| GonZ | Intensify, PokemonKidRyan | 2/6 |
| lol | EVO, Tilgarial | 2/6 |
| [Not Voting] | eevee, EliThePsycho, lol, an_gorta_pratai, WindwardAway, GonZ, cdecora | 7 |
EOD3 is at 2021-04-01T19:50:00Z.
but considering lol claimed vanilla and we have a neapolitan cop, it would most likely just make him a goon
and it would be better to let the goon sacrifice themselves instead of risking that the rand hits a mafia PR (which it did)
so wouldn’t a goon not want the execution to rand?
to be fair i wasn’t even scummy yall just cant read my thought process since its wonky as fuck
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I have a feeling your thought process is wonky as both alignments tbh
that being said, it isn’t like I didn’t understand a good number of your posts
I just had doubts, and maybe still have some, but less than I did yesterday
as scum im not as wonky since theres people to keep me in check
if i dayvigging people 5 minutes into the day im usually town
Random lynchings are all about probablities.
It’s no longer a player-specific move, and thus doesn’t give us much information after a death; the only way we have to genuinely have good reads.
If it had hit basically anybody else, i would have been a disaster for town in more ways than one
We were lucky, but being lucky doesn’t mean the move itself changes
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we were at 13 players
3 wolves and 10 town
if the wagons happen to be T/T that means the rand pool is 3 wolves and 8 town
so slightly under a 50% chance of hitting a wolf
Oh no, it’s just eevee being eevee causing normal rng to not work :^)
For example I randed my last… 5 vig shots and all of them hit scum.
3 of them were in same game actually, which made it a good meme of rng just killing scum.
:^)
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Nope, 3 wolf 8 town means hitting wolf is a 3/11chance. That’s less than 30%
And that’s based off of the premise that the one who did it wasn’t scum, because he’s in the tie. If he is scum, then it’s 2/11, which is less than 20%
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Ehh, nah.
It’s just me being lucky myself.
How else would you call someone who survived 3 cancers and a stroke without a single damage to themself?
/shrug
Beside immortal that is.
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