[Standard] NUF FM 2 - GAME OVER (MAFIA + NEUTRAL VICTORY)

Forum Matches Completed
#3682

ok I clearly forgot some things

here’s the summary for the lazy people

EoD2 vote progression

side note: I was distracted finishing playing a game at the same time because I forgot the day ended 10 min before the hour, and I didn’t see Aelin’s vote on lol at the time I decided to switch off Intensify and onto lol

important notes:

  1. wagons were tied between EVO and Intensify, and Aelin chose to vote lol
  2. Aelin changed her mind and decided to vote Intensify which broke the tie
  3. only when I decided to vote lol did she switch back to lol

pure wagonomics from EoD2 would spew EVO as her scum teammate

but taking into account wagonomics from the previous day, and Aelin scumreading EVO the entirety of the day including voting EVO over Marl when the wagons were close, says otherwise.

#3683

since Aelin made a tiebreaker vote, I think that backs my idea that scum did not want the vote to rand

1 Like
#3684

Aelin had EVO as an SR on D1
Aelin voted EVO on D1
Aelin stuck EVO as a null read on D2 (after the whole redcheck thing)
Aelin did not vote EVO on D2

#3685

nah, I’m back to thinking tiebreaking the wagons by voting Intensify means Intensify is town and that Aelin didn’t want the votes to rand
if Aelin was trying to CW EVO to save him, she wouldn’t have kept her vote on EVO when his wagon was tied with Marl’s unless she was just gambling for towncred

#3686

Windward, I know you are younger than me, but like… slow down.

Don’t instantly jump into conclusions when doing reaserch or it will be biased.
Same if you ever get to do scientific research.

You want to look at data and draw conclusions from all of them, not coming with conclusions right of the bat.
People won’t trust it if they won’t see the cause-effect reaction.

2 Likes
#3687

I don’t think I’m that much younger than you, am I?

if I don’t write a conclusion right away, I get accused of being wishywashy and scummy.
if I jump to a conclusion right away it ends up being a 50-50.
so I just write out my thoughts as I’m thinking them lol.

2 Likes
#3688

i never posted all my overnight notes but i started out being heavily biased into thinking lol was a wolf, actually
so i ended up drawing the opposite conclusion
whether i’ve confbiased myself into that conclusion is another matter

#3689

Well, it’s good to note down own thoughts as you go through, so you don’t forget them.

But when you try to convince others, being all over the place doesn’t… help them understand and seems like you have more inconsistencies.

Not writing conclusion right away is rather… natural.
After all why would you write down conclusion when you are still analyzing something?
Just to change it multiple times along the way?

2 Likes
#3690

fair enough
and I guess that’s something I have to work on, since I’ve been accused (as town) of reaching a conclusion first and then backtracking to find evidence to support my conclusion, instead of analyzing first and concluding at the end.

2 Likes
#3691

it was a correct accusation but it was in the context that I was a wolf when I was just weird town

#3692

Look, I’m actually gonna try to translate scientific research methodology into mafia.

image

From my PoV we were on “Background reasearch” part, before we figure out exactly we are trying to analyze for.
Background reasearch would be gathering “Facts” about what happened.

Next step would be trying to think what we can actually come up with:
Evo alignment?
lol alignment?
Intensify alignment?
Mafia’s goal at this eod?
Behavior of other voters?

Probably all, but that would be still better to focus on one topic at a time.

So let’s start with hypotesis that EVO is town.
Now we need to go AGAIN through whole EoD to see if it makes sense from that AND opposite (EVO is scum) PoV (procedure is working) and what connections each of them implies.

And then… analyze again with… lol alignment.
And then with Intensify alignment.

In simpler words:

First gather “facts” which are widely known and noone can doubt it. This way you will start analysis from something everyone knows and they will be able to follow you easier. (background research)

Then analyze alignment of chosen player or chosen game situation, looking if what happened makes sense and what it implicates.

Analyze another player after you finish first.
And another.

And only then communicate the end results, when you go through this.
End results should have the “facts”, the conclusion and explanation for each conclusion (while omitting parts which brought nothing to the conclusion).

Like we can say that gorta voted EVO at the EoD, but what does it tell us about Intensify alignment?
Nothing, as wagons were already EVO / lol at this point.

Hence to pass information easily, you don’t post EVERYTHING right away. And definitely not a conclusion BEFORE you analyze if it makes sense.

See?

3 Likes
#3693

It is correct acusation.
You try to analyze everything at once and forming a thesis after one part and then look after it.

It’s better to first gather whole list of facts and then only form thesis.

I can see you like going micro reads and have problems in looking at stuff from wider PoV.
But one post most of a time is not enough to correctly solve everything.

2 Likes
#3694

Uhh…

What’s happening here…?

#3695

lessons in applying the scientific method to mafia

2 Likes
#3696

Wha-…

Uh…

Ok then…

1 Like
#3697

(it’s NAI but doesn’t mean I won’t apply it)

#3698

So these are 5 questions we wish to answer I guess?

#3699

they’re 5 separate things to look into when solving
wouldn’t necessarily say the goal is to answer them immediately since that would be… less analytical and skipping from hypothesis to conclusion, if I understand what Eevee’s saying

#3700

So following the scientific method, we gather the facts, make a simple hypothesis and then using our facts and evidence we try to either disprove or prove our hypothesis, rinse and repeat until we have a good result?

#3701

Or rather part 1 aka. how to analyze stuff to get an understandable and unbiased result.

Part 2 coming up in a moment.

3 Likes