The Mastermind Fake-Claim Problem

(very least likely)

Scorned is a good reaper claim.
I won that way I claimed it as soon as unseen got majority

(I accused everyone and got away with it)

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TBH I suck at Mastermind. He’s too defensive for my play style

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“8 IS UNSEEN PEOPLE”
8 was a Reaper.

well fak

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This kind of issue (same with Phys) can be solved by smart play.

If you convert someone who hasn’t claimed or is at the very least not proven (so Sheriff --> Marshal/Phys --> Herbalist), you are able to veil the existence of this class by bussing your assassin. This would change a Marshal/Herbalist into another assassin and give the MM some much needed claimspace. Bussing also makes your investigative claim more valid.

MMs being caught easily is down to players not playing Unseen correctly. Too much value is put into the lives of converted classes and assassin. The MM needs to be preserved as long as possible, they are tools for the MM to use. Use them.

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I just bus bus bus as MM

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Actually if you claimed Physician end up being 3rd claim, sometimes good idea is to back to Alchemist straight up. After all not every Alch is outing themselves D1/D2 it might work as well.

Claiming prince as mm is :100:Iq

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I find claiming King always works

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The Memesky Gambit?

I’m always voted down /s

This I have to say is pretty false of a statement, at least with competent players (though I’ll admit until we get a ranked mode or something like that, we may not have to worry about that being the normal).

Fact is a good player wouldn’t be searching logs for what is there. but what isn’t.
If the sheriff and the phys visited bob on n1 according to their dead logs. Clever “fake observer” notes those 2 things… but the butler that also visited bob, should be able to call out in a heartbeat that while those 2 visits are true… the omition of his own visit PROVES the logs as faked.

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The chance than 1 person visited another in early game is of 1/16 per night. That’s pretty rare.

Isn’t it 1/15?

1/14. People rarely visit the king

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However the odds that an unknown person visited someone is close to 1 and the odds that any given visiting class visits someone at all is also close to 1

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The chance that 1 person specific person visited another specific person is low… The odds that you can pull of 2 or 3 days worth of visit logs without omitting a single visit made by anyone that is currently alive on the other hand… is just plain crazy. We aren’t talking what are the odds that 15 visited 12 on the day I’m claiming to have watched 12… it’s what are the odds that either 12 visited someone, or 9, 8, 7, 6, or 5 happened to visit him… all of those put together adds up to a lot more.

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I would love to have game statistics from the devs regarding class spawn rates, it would let us calculate the actual probability someone you don’t know about visited the guy you “followed”.

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Hell, no, this is the definition of the meta game we absolutely don’t want. When we know things like that we also discover how often a class spawns, it means you now have meta info about how likely it is for that second obs claim be true or not, how often it is to get two mercenaries and things like that. These rates must remain hidden for the sake of the game.

Would you prefer someone analyze their own games to discover the statistics then keep them to themself to gain an unfair advantage over everyone else?

It’s not meta-gaming. It’s just demographics in the ToL universe.

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