ToS Mafia - Day 8 - (3/19) [Town wins!]

anyway stop distracting us with your calculator skills.

Who do you feel should be lynched today?

Thatā€™s higher than Evil King spawning in FoL

a) Itā€™s already more than you did this game
b) Itā€™s actually changing PoV a lot.

Likeā€¦

Everyone said it was just like 2/13 chance so around 15%.
In reality it wasā€¦ around 45%.

Thatā€™s massive difference.

That pretty much means we canā€™t clear Cheese off PR shit.

And that pretty much means that whoever said it was 15% sucks in math.

And that is why we canā€™t solve this game due everyone actually blends in the crowd.

So you picked Possessed for this situation to get the game going?

You JUST figured this out? Weā€™ve mentioned it several times. Its double weight.

No, I just counted how much it really is %.

Noone of you actually gave correct number before, I only saw much lower estimations.

Double weight id imagine means double chance. Still, Gamblers Fallacy to say its a Citizen.

I knew itā€™s double chance, but I was basing on Datā€™s estimation, never counted it myself.
In reality it was over 3 times more than Dat estimated it is.

Eevee, what you just said hurts to read.

That makes completely no sense, just like what I said in Grand Idea.

I just used the Birthday Paradox to work it out. Doesnā€™t mean itā€™s real.

Additionally, why can Citizen only roll once?

because the mod said so

I wouldnā€™t say itā€™s baseless.

Clarifying it is actualy important.
Likeā€¦ look, not only I was working on wrong assumption:

We canā€™t be clearing Cheese of 45% chance to be scum, likeā€¦ wtf.

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now my head hurts more due to the fact itā€™s not a Unique Role (because of the 7x Citizens Rolls) but doesnā€™t say thereā€™s any cap at all.

Anyway Iā€™m not arguing about fucking math on a forum about catching some lying dude whoā€™s just a town in a trenchcoat.

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Eevee can decide to keep Cloned as town roleblocker meaning there are only 7 citizens with 5 scum alive in the rest or he can CC his slot (Why no one did, mysterious how no one question it) with 8 slots with 1 scum eliminated with 4 left remaining in the cit claims.

I once used to say that best case scenario isnā€™t realistic one so I am pretty much pessimistic

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hmm

I wish this forum had more reactions to post than just heart

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can someone link me the VC