ToS Mafia - Day 8 - (3/19) [Town wins!]

anyway stop distracting us with your calculator skills.

Who do you feel should be lynched today?

That’s higher than Evil King spawning in FoL

a) It’s already more than you did this game
b) It’s actually changing PoV a lot.

Like…

Everyone said it was just like 2/13 chance so around 15%.
In reality it was… around 45%.

That’s massive difference.

That pretty much means we can’t clear Cheese off PR shit.

And that pretty much means that whoever said it was 15% sucks in math.

And that is why we can’t solve this game due everyone actually blends in the crowd.

So you picked Possessed for this situation to get the game going?

You JUST figured this out? We’ve mentioned it several times. Its double weight.

No, I just counted how much it really is %.

Noone of you actually gave correct number before, I only saw much lower estimations.

Double weight id imagine means double chance. Still, Gamblers Fallacy to say its a Citizen.

I knew it’s double chance, but I was basing on Dat’s estimation, never counted it myself.
In reality it was over 3 times more than Dat estimated it is.

Eevee, what you just said hurts to read.

That makes completely no sense, just like what I said in Grand Idea.

I just used the Birthday Paradox to work it out. Doesn’t mean it’s real.

Additionally, why can Citizen only roll once?

because the mod said so

I wouldn’t say it’s baseless.

Clarifying it is actualy important.
Like… look, not only I was working on wrong assumption:

We can’t be clearing Cheese of 45% chance to be scum, like… wtf.

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now my head hurts more due to the fact it’s not a Unique Role (because of the 7x Citizens Rolls) but doesn’t say there’s any cap at all.

Anyway I’m not arguing about fucking math on a forum about catching some lying dude who’s just a town in a trenchcoat.

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Eevee can decide to keep Cloned as town roleblocker meaning there are only 7 citizens with 5 scum alive in the rest or he can CC his slot (Why no one did, mysterious how no one question it) with 8 slots with 1 scum eliminated with 4 left remaining in the cit claims.

I once used to say that best case scenario isn’t realistic one so I am pretty much pessimistic

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hmm

I wish this forum had more reactions to post than just heart

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can someone link me the VC