ToS Mafia - Day 8 - (3/19) [Town wins!]

yup
that would be correct

the forum will not let me just hold down the ? key and send that as a message

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why … do you think that

Ah so you’re not townie?

why would you think this

hold on I’m writing up my response

Well you didn't try hard enough

???

Let me explain, from my perspective:
I see 4 cases where a public townread d1 could happen:

  1. N0 cop + townies. This doesn’t exist, so that’s out.
  2. Mafia + scumbuddies, to clear buddies
  3. Mafia + townies, to pocket townies
  4. Townie + people - > what you’re claiming

But how would you benefit from publicly showing your judgements as a Townie, especially as early as d1? You share your opinion that may be wrong, and in the best case scenario you get everyone to agree to not lynch those people. In the worst case scenario you falsely clear scum, and give them an easy platform that they can just ride on. I think the risk outweighs the benefits. As time goes on it’s important to share information to actually figure out who’s who, but at this point we just have so little evidence. And we do see Arete admitting that those were just gut feelings - why would you clear people based on gut feels? I sense something more.

Also, I just think that a townlist just has a much more probability coming from scum, as mentioned in points #2 and #3.

The cop claim was sketchy, as I’ve mentioned before - townread list + credibility = deepwolf.

All of these combined, I’m still voting for Arete.

Thank you for coming to my TED talk. Again, although I may be horribly wrong here, but I firmly believe that I am correct.

oh wow the forum actually limits the number of questionmarks

I am not interested in copypaste

what copypaste

Okay let me explain why everything about your Mafia philosophy is wrong regardless of your alignment this game

there are a couple main reasons why it’s beneficial to share townreads as a townie

the first is that the more people share their thought processes the easier it is to read those people, but that’s not actually the main one I want to talk about

I’m going to use the example of a 12v3 Mountainous game (so, no PRs) to explain this because it’s easier if I don’t have to say ‘but also there’s a 3p killer and also protectives might get saves’ when that’s not really the point

so you have your 12v3 Mountainous game

Mafia needs to get 5 total mislynches across the entire game to win, before the town can get 3 correct lynches

now let’s say that 5 of the 12 townies get cleared as such

Mafia now have to get 5 mislynches in 7 people rather than 5 mislynches in 12 people, which is a lot harder of a job for them

if 8 of the 12 townies can be cleared as such over the course of the game with no misclears then that’s just auto (bear in mind that this includes, like, the people dying to nightkill)

So I am cleared by him to his guts? That is incorrect

And no that doesn’t mean I am 100% cleared, just light town lean

that’s a big if

As previously stated, I’m expressing my suspicion of a more-than-possible deepwolf here.

anyways now that I’ve explained why your entire philosophy is wrong I can explain why this is wolfy

Scum basically knows that I’m flipping town (technically from a scum perspective they don’t know that for absolute certain because they don’t know whether I’m town, or Witch/SK/Arso but they’re most likely assuming town)

this means that especially if they’re inexperienced they’ll be worried that pushing me is going to “look bad” or something in light of my flip

I think that’s the perspective demonstrated in these quotes

he’s not willing to actually call me a wolf, because he knows I’m not, and he’s worried that if he actually calls me a wolf he’ll look suspicious when I’m not

basically, he’s preemptively making excuses for a world in which I flip town

and that’s wolfy as heck

the second one is a little different because he’s saying that he “firmly believes” he’s correct

except … he clearly doesn’t

because he starts that with “although I may be horribly wrong here”

this doesn’t make sense from a town perspective, townies don’t actually feel the need to start every read with “but I could be totally wrong and they could also be town” because when you actually believe someone is scum you don’t feel the need to add that sort of qualifier every other sentence

Sure

but if you don’t try to clear anyone then you end up with no cleared townies

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Hello have you been paying attention to my TED talk

My entire argument was “let’s not make hasty judgements d1,” which I am following myself. I think you’re a scumlean, but I am hesitant to put you as a scumread yet becase it is day 1

See the trend?

Cool so lets start

Arete = Scum

I vaguely remember a game where I think you pushed me for this exact reason and both of us ended up as town… see CD FM1

Also I have a really stupid read on this sentence that I’m pretty sure is correct

If you read the sentence, it’s not grammatically sound – not in the sense that, like, it’s missing a capital letter, or that it doesn’t end with a period, or that it’s missing an apostrophe, or anything, but in the sense that the flow of the sentence just doesn’t work – the “although” doesn’t fit with the “but”

this is often scum-indicative because it usually indicates a post that was edited mid-composition, which more often comes from scum

my gut is telling me arete is town for the sole fact that they’re playing exactly how i’d play in the “i’m probably going to die today” scenario as town (see mafia academy, where i was redchecked as town and wrote a wallpost in my first FM game ever which amounted to nothing because neutral fruit vendor)

while i’m pretty sure scum arete is capable of doing this exact thing, in a setup with no day flip altering (right???) it doesn’t make too much sense in my eyes

/vote Darth_tabor

Voted Arete and then backtracked his vote (or is that a her?)

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with that said i don’t think scum arete just flops over and lets themselves die

if i were a nerd i’d look at aretes past games and see how they act in this position