It would definitely change the winrates but I’m not convinced that any winrate change automatically would damage the game
It’s not like the current winrates are some magical correct number and any possible deviation is therefore incorrect
The worst case would be “all games have a 50/50 winchance”.
If the roll of one game has a 40/60 winchance, and the next game has a 60/40 winchance, that’s great. That’s what the game makes enjoyable. You are playing against the odds.
like imagine if at the start of every game it randed you into either ToL or ToS (and by ToS I mean the ridiculously villagesided version from a few years ago). that’s variety, right? if it’s predisclosed, that’s good variety!
Sorry, I got told “if I try to balance FM, I try to get as close to 50/50 as possible”
If we’re talking objective probalistic EV calculations, the standard is to aim for a 40% chance of village victory, because you presume that the villa and the wolves will perform better than random on average.
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Swing is not where the mean winrates fall along 0/100 to 100/0
It’s the standard deviation of the distribution
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Neat, except that’s clearly one person and generalizations are generally not great
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And if we’re talking closed setups, where things are a hell of a lot more nebulous and complex, I’d consider roughly 60/40 in either faction’s favour to be a rousing success
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Swing means: sometimes BD has a good rand, but scum has still a chance. Sometimes evils have a good rand, but BD has still a chance. This is the kind of swing we want! The extremes are bad obviously and we don’t want them, but the swing itself is great.
I mean the thing I care about is not ‘X is the average winrate of each faction,’ it’s more complicated than that
There are some aspects of BD that I think could use a nerf (specifically the thing where ‘massclaim D2, kill the not mechanically confirmed people, solve by PoE’ is still a breaking strategy) but other aspects that are basically fine
Cult and Unseen should be more in line with each other
Non-bugged Poss is probably slightly too strong, the other NKs are fine winrate-wise for people not named Arete
Lots of neuts are slightly too strong but they aren’t really factions