Umineko FM - Game Over - Mafia Wins

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#5742

Yeah, I agree that rue/strawb/derps/conduit team that makes most sense if you assume neighbourhood is all town.

But to me that team is kind hard to believe.

Yesterday, why are Rue and Shortcake on Conduit and Derps doing nothing? I understand distancing but piling onto the scum buddy and refusing to switch at all, leaving it on 4v5 is super super ballsy.
Rue knows Zone was a killer, so for Rue to be mafia and Zone town Rue is likely a mafia rolechecker. This is believable.
And today Derps is saying he wants Rue and Shortcake and thats his only reads. Like again this could be distancing but hes now boxed himself in if they are a team because theyre the only people he can plausibly vote without looking suspicous. If he had said ā€œRue and Shortcake and Cattailā€ then he had plausible deniability to later vote Cattail to save his scum mates. But he didnt, he literally just sussed Rue and Shortcake which is p weird play at this stage of the game if theyre both his mates.

#5743

There are definately worlds where Santa/Cattail are town. Rue could be consiguilere, Zone could even be mafia, Shortcake could be a Godfather, Wazza could be lying etcetera.

But by far the simplest mech answer is Cattail Santa W/W. And this is backed up by the fact theyā€™ve literally done fuck all scum hunting in 4 days.

#5744

anyway isnā€™t conduit a safer kill because

zone me you wazza fmpov pretty town

if itā€™s cattail + santa then itā€™s always both

if itā€™s shortcake + rue itā€™s always both

so

assuming thereā€™s like, a pair among them

that makes

a pair + someone + someone else

conduit is likeliest in both case

wouldnt conduit (or maybe sda) be a better if we had to come to that point?

#5745

I donā€™t think SDA is a good hang yet. I think heā€™s a possible 4th member of a Santa/Cattail/Conduit team but so are a few other people.

Iā€™d be down to hang Conduit too.

Also Rue can be scum and Shortcake be town.

#5746

would scum rue greencheck town shortcake today in any condition?

#5747

Hippo, we no-lynch today.

Centuries plan thing has the highest chance of victory here.

#5748

In a world where Rue is mafia, their thought process is

ā€œI, or someone in mafia team, is role checker. I know Zoneā€™s role, and he is a killer. I will claim to know Zone is a killer to give me a fake claim. Oh shit, its now the next night and I have to claim another check. My options are A) redcheck a town to create a thunderdome B) redcheck a mafia for a bus C) greencheck a town to buy loyalty or D) greencheck a mafia to provide cover.ā€

I agree greenchecking a mafia to provide cover is probably smartest but after option D I would say C is smartest. I donā€™t think so in this case but worth considering.

#5749

What if scum have extra KPN and we just lose though?

#5750

wouldnā€™t scum be pushing for nl if that was true?

also where was kp earlier?

#5751

Vote Count

Accused Voters Number
No elimination Wazza, Rue, Centuries 3/6
Cattail Zone_Q11, Hippoyeetus 2/6
Not voting Cattail, Conduit, Santa, SirDerpsAlot, Strawberry_Shortcake 5
#5752

also like

lol scum will hammer no elim if they get on so i guess

shrug

#5753

They may just be saving like a one-shot double kill or something. I feel like in the majority of games mafia have some way to get more than 1 kill at one point. Thereā€™s been no poison or anything and no unusual deaths so I think itā€™s a relatively safe assumption to think that Mafia have some extra kill power at their disposal outside of their factional.

Seems like an unncessary risk to bank the game on scum not having any killer role or ability.

#5754

Timezones exist though, waiting for 3 scum to be on at same time when theres only a 3 or 4 man team is harder than it looks.

#5755

Extra KPNā€™s are usually disabled from what I know.

Also if they had one, they probably wouldā€™ve used it a different day since theyā€™ve had so many good targets.

#5756

oh really is that a thing? makes sense i guess.

#5757

like if weā€™re guaranteed to see tomorrow I will happily skip but i dont know if we are.

#5758

I donā€™t know if it is in this game but from what I know thatā€™s how it goes.

#5759

/unvote

just eh

shrug

#5760

???

#5761

in case thereā€™s like

1 scum on no elim vote

and they dont hammer no elim if they can win with it

which doesnt really matter

but just in case