[VFM] JoaT^2 - (6/15) - 😹 Pirates (Town) Win!

[Flameo]

@CatLover

I made that post before I made the presented case! I town-read him earlier and that still has not wavered, but I suppose I should make a case on him when I am done sorting the slots I am less sure of.

Oh. I did not convince you then?

[Flameo]

@Leafia

No. Towns lose games because they don’t consider all the possibilities no matter how probable it is. Just because something is super unlikely doesn’t make it impossible and if you were considering all the possibilities, you’d list all the possibilities.

Leafia… this is really not how it works in my opinion. I encourage you to read the page Elephas posted in full. I think it’s a good resource that will help you out.

Balancing Possibilities Versus Probabilities - MafiaWiki

I haven’t ISO’ed Leafia in full, but I’m fairly confident they are town this game from the bits I have seen.

[CatLover]

I mean no, not really in all honesty. I liked your point on his Hipocricy regarding calling things “low-level” but also saying people are overcomplicating things.

I think your point on him not caring at EoD might be pertinent later, but without the flips of the entire EoD I am not going to touch it now.

Otherwise, I cannot say I was convinced, and I am probably going to formulate my own read on him separate from that with the above things in mind.

[Flameo]

I think the whole NK analysis at the start of day is a trap that some players have fallen into and others are abusing. I’ll be in the “NK analysis should be a supplement to reads, not the sole or even foundational base of a read” camp. I could probably make up a scenario using Katze’s posts to scumread every single one of the other players alive, if it was just using NK analysis.

[Wisp]

This dude gets it

[Elephas]

@Vulgard

No? Kat thought I was V and the wolfreads were a meme. They admitted to it.

I suppose I worded this in an odd way. I meant “katze’s ability to read you.”

@Vulgard

I didn’t do much at EoD because I was preoccupied with other stuff. Sorry I’m not doing as much this game as I want to.

As frustrating as it is to have inactivity play a role in clearing people, your absence from End of Day does add up with your lack of presence during other key parts of this game. (For example, you left thread almost immediately at the Start of Day)

@Vulgard

I’ve been trying to build a towncore, but people are just doing their own thing. Well, I don’t have the thread presence to lead, so I guess it’s fine, just… try to work together more?

@Vulgard

What even is this gamestate? You all have deepwolf paranoia when we still have ~3 misyeets before YeetLo. Stop parking on the people who are actually doing things and start wagoning the people who haven’t been nearly towny enough to escape scrutiny.

@Vulgard

This place is a mess. There is no towncore and no cooperation, everyone is still just doing their own thing. Can you all just… stop going after each other and start trying to find town for a moment, and sort out disagreements?

I actually very much like these posts. They read as incredibly genuine, and have made me realize that I am incredibly focused on searching for wolves rather than finding town. A wolf would normally take advantage of this disorganization, as there is no towncore to follow; people are simply pursuing their own reads.

Let’s create a towncore. Applications are open.

@Vulgard

I don’t actually expect to get killed this game basically ever unless I’m on the mark, so yeah, I’m gonna be here for a while, I suppose.

… however, I dislike this post. It feels slightly performative. I suppose we’ll see depending on how “on the mark” you are.

@Vulgard

I wanna say something about why Elephas is probably town, too, but that would be a straight-up rulebreak and I play by the rules.

Did the hosts forward you my rolecard like I asked? How kind of them.

@Elephas

I would still like reasoning for the votes on me, from a social standpoint.
Only Leafia has given a case on my slot, and, while the conclusion is wrong, it still shows her thought-process behind the vote. Naked votes do not allow me to defend myself, as there are no points to refute.

@CallMeIo

Ok I’ll play along.
I ”Motion Detected Elephas.

I will not be defending myself from a case build entirely on a “motion detector” - as I do not plan on giving Mafia any more information. Please provide me with a case as to how my behavior is scummy. So far, I have seen nothing from you that I can refute.

@Leafia

Here you even admit that I could be right and Elephas never listed that as a possibility which leads me to think that he’s possibly trying to hide the fact that the wolves are trying to do just that.

I never said you were a wolf. I said that I cannot comprehend your thought-process, and I don’t believe that you believe in parts of your read on me. That can come from a wolf or a villager.
In fact, (in kind words), I’m more inclined to believe that your horrible case and push on me comes from a not-so-fantastic member of the town, rather than a wolf pushing agenda.

@Vulgard

Low WiM (possibly a PR thing to fake), very “safe” play, and generally townread enough to not receive a CFD to the face at EoD by accident. I think these conditions were all fulfilled, which made kat a potential PR.

These are good points. And I do agree that, from the perspective of a Mafia member, it is in their best interest to find and kill JOATs early, and almost always higher priority than killing people who have correct reads.

This does not mean that I no longer stand by my earlier vote on you. But I will admit that a large portion of the reasoning behind my vote was for your reaction, rather than the strict belief that you are a wolf because of a dead player’s ability to read you, and I very much like your recent posts.

@Vulgard

@CallMeIo

Ok I’ll play along.

I ”Motion Detected Elephas.

This post does it for me, Io is town.
Will explain reasoning if anybody wants me to.

@Vulgard

There is no way a wolf enters the thread, sees the JOAT cover idea criticized by people who are probably villagers, then… performs JOAT cover as if no negative sentiment has ever existed. Openly breaking a notion established by the village for absolutely no reason isn’t something most wolves would ever do.

Which, to me, implies that Io is just town who is doing their own thing and doesn’t care.

I disagree with this conclusion for the soul reason being that I was the player who was against JOAT cover. It was not large majority of players who expressed negative feelings towards it, it was me and Wiisp, if I am remembering correctly.
Of course this player will ignore my wishes for no JOAT cover this early, if they are intent on tunneling me, for whatever reason.

---

Will be splitting the rest of my catch-up into a separate post

[Flameo]

@sulit

What’s your read on Vulgard?

[Wisp]

Ok we are definitely not thunderdoming a motion detector and the person they targeted

Not solving in them today, is the correct play
I’m open to hearing otherwise

[Wisp]

The joat*

[Wisp]

A joat claim*
God damnit

[sulit]

I don’t really have one atm

[Flameo]

Can you like… develop one…

[sulit]

yeah

[SirDerpsAlot]

Nerds

[Elephas]

@Vulgard

Still thinking Mole is scum. His play has been a combination of fluffposts, shitposts, asking questions, and occasionally providing random reads.

The only thing keeping me from jumping onto this train is that it almost looks Too-Wolfy-To-Be-A-Wolf

However, this line of thought may be clouding my judgement. It is more likely that he is just a wolf.
I am absolutely fine with placing my vote here, though.

I agree with a majority of the points you brought up in this post. I don’t feel the need to quote them all, but can if asked.

@CatLover

Sorry people, I slept for a very long time and had to take a break from FM so I only got about 1/3 of the way through my ISOs and cases.

I’ll work on that after I catch up with thread!

@CatLover

I am unhappy with the approach i’ve taken so far where i’m doing the ISOs all at once on a doc just reading the thread. I thought it would be faster but I feel like i’ve just mixed these people together in my head and in the end it’s become more of a conglomerate of reads rather than an individual case on people.

Due to this displeasure I am just going to go one by one and start from scratch. Sorry people, i’m feeling out of it and don’t want to put something forward if it’s not my best .

Probably going to start on Flameo as that is a slot i’m most interested in sorting. Expect that soon.

Forgive me if I missed it, but I never saw your catch-up post? I would much rather see your natural thought-process and progression than an Isolation-dive.

@CatLover

Flameo strikes me as someone who tries to figure out what she can understand until she hits a point where they can not, and then wolf-reads it when she no longer can understand it or follows a different path of questioning and discussion once she cannot.

No. We do not use flowcharts to describe someone’s mindset. Bonus points for the fact that this image is huge and pink, meaning it stands out. Of course everyone is going to see this. I despise this post. It feels like an advert being shoved in our faces, yet people will take this as “CatLover is providing content because they posted a big post with a picture.”
No.

Also I don’t understand why you are townreading Flameo for… asking questions? I don’t think this is as alignment-indicative as you are making it out to be.

@CatLover

It’s much harder for wolves to push agenda when they give townies adequate time to explain themselves and I do not honestly feel like mafia would take this approach as it would severely cripple the aggressiveness often necessary to formulate and push a fake push on a town-member.

May I ask who else you are townreading by this logic?

I also think you are underestimating Flameo. They seem to be a very strong player, and, although I townread them, I doubt this is outside their wolfrange.

Also this may be slight confirmation-bias sneaking in, as I am starting to dislike your slot, but a lot of this post feels like padding. You don’t need to write this essay to get your point across, or provide a flowchart.

[Elephas]

@CatLover

You were the main proponent for the attempted CFD onto gorta at the end of the day yesterday.

Why have you not mentioned this player once today? Has your mind changed?

[Flameo]

@SirDerpsAlot

I did the ISO to build a case on why I think youre a wolf so

@SirDerpsAlot

Doesn’t the shortness of your ISO kind of confirm that Wiisp is townier then considering their post volume?

@SirDerpsAlot

it took me all of 5 min to look through to this point??

@SirDerpsAlot

and like im lazy as fuck and I could do it

I like SDA factchecking their scumreads fyi. Solid townread.

@SirDerpsAlot

@Arete

Vote Count

Vote Target	Voted by	Votes
Wiisp	Moleland	1/8
Moleland	CallMeIo, Vulgard	2/8
ash4fun	Elephas, Sulit, an_gorta_pratai, Flameo	4/8
CallMeIo	Wazza, Leafia	2/8
Catlover	SirDerpsAlot	1/8
katze	centuries	1/8
an_gorta_pratai	ash4fun, CatLover, Wiisp, katze	4/8

@ me for any mistakes or future votes

I’m pretty confident theirs at least two wolves in the ash/Gorta wagons Probabaly all 3 tho

Io and Mole were both notable wagons as well yesterday and so far a lot of wagon analyses are falling short of including that full picture. Mole/Ash/Io/Gorta were all wagons with multiple people on them and potential to land end of day.

[Elephas]

Can someone direct me to the latest votecount please? I am on mobile and I am having trouble finding it.

[Flameo]

@Arete

Vote Count

Vote Target	Voted by	Votes
Elephas	Leafia, CallMeIo, SirDerpsAlot	3/7
Vulgard	Flameo, Wiisp	2/7
Moleland	Vulgard	1/7
sulit	Centuries	1/7

@Elephas

@DatBird
@Arete

Votecount pretty please.

[DatBird]

Vote Count

Vote Target	Voted by	Votes
Elephas	CallMeIo, SirDerpsAlot	2/7
Vulgard	Flameo	1/7
Moleland	Vulgard, Leafia, Wiisp	3/7
Wazza	Centuries	1/7

@ me for any mistakes or future votes