This is useless
Does anyone who won’t actively avoid answering any questions I ask want to talk
I think Forums dont even know them yet…
Mama Tan and Mama Law
We are really playing Family Mafia
So, taking my time to get caught up, I present to you; “Tangeld’s Likely Incorrect Read of the D1 Lynch that Probably Won’t Help”
High chance of scum: JakeTheWolfie, Italy, Nuclear_Rehab, Katze
A lot of this comes from the Kai lynch. Jake was the predominant lynch target before Kai started going up, Jake is saying that they suspect Kai but doesn’t vote it. Then Nuclear votes with this oddball of a statement.
I might be tinfoiling a bit, but this comes off to me as “Jake is scum afraid to push a townie because they suspect they’ll be the next hang, so Nuclear jumps on that grenade for Jake”. I’m not terribly confident in that being a scumtell, but it seems… off to me, particularly from someone who’s throwing shade and then not voting.
Jake jumps in on the lynch midway through, after Luxy votes in, but Jake doesn’t claim any of those previous reasons for scumreading Kai. I’m seeing it through the lens of opportunistic scum looking for a counterwagon. But the real kicker is when Italy enters the mix. Italy says that he’ll only be around for a couple of minutes, Jake suggests moving vote from Isaac to Kai, and Italy does so with no hesitation, citing “peer pressure” as his reasoning. Either Italy is scum who is totally fine with Kai hanging, or scum who doesn’t want Jake to hang, or town who is playing passive as all hell. None of these are good, and two of the three paint Italy as scum.
Katze… This is a weird one. Katze previously claims a willingness to see a Jake lynch with this piece;
And this isn’t a bad reasoning for a D1 lynch from what I can see, but Kat then places FoS on Kai while saying that Kai is probably LHF and later switches the vote to Kai with no other prompt. Again, this lands in the “opportunistic scum” viewpoint.
Jake and Italy are practically tied in terms of how scummy I think they are, but weirdly enough I don’t think they’re both scum; two scum in this scenario would have put up a better front than this. Either Jake is scum who tried to coerce a vote from a seemingly passive town Italy (and succeeded), or Italy is a scum who seized upon a chance to pile onto a wagon on non-scum.
I’m gonna make a bold call here; based on the D1 lynch, we have exactly one scum in Jake and Italy, and I think we have another scum in Nuclear and Katze. I personally think I’d rather see an Italy lynch today than a Jake lynch because if Italy is town, they’re playing passively and being easily pocketed by scum and town doesn’t need that around, but I don’t terribly mind Jake going down today either because it’s basically a thunderdome on the two of them FMPoV.
Once that gets resolved and the scum is dead, I would like to take a look at Nuclear and Katze; working on basically nothing, I suspect Kat to be the more likely of those two to be scum. While it is technically possible that they’re both town, I don’t think it’s terribly likely; the way Kai went up suggests a concerted effort from scum, which means at least two scum in the vote on it, and Geyxy doesn’t read as terribly scummy to me.
catches breath
correction: i was sussing Kai because their ISO was pushing Chloe (now sulit) and in my eyes Chloe was the biggest LHF in the match
…So this was meant to say that Kai’s vote is on LHF?
Hmm… I can see that being phrased like this, but it’s awkward as hell.
