[VFM] Town vs Bandits - Day 5 (4/13) - Bandits Win!

[staypositivefriend]

1. okay, no worries. do you mind briefly summarizing your thoughts about alice in more detail? what pushes you the most strongly in either direction?

2. okay

3. i’m not looking for something specific - i’m just looking for something. your notes likely existed before you replaced into this game, so i can’t put any stock into them. this means that the only thing i can take stock into is how much you are scumhunting/solving now, and i don’t feel you’ve done anything that is outside of the range of a half-decent wolf. i suppose i just want to see your thoughts laid out in more detail so that i can figure out if youre actually trying to hunt

[sulit]

Did wind obv town before they subbed out

Is there any other subs besides kat and wisp

[Alice]

@staypositivefriend

i thought your progression on vulgard was rigid because it almost felt like you were “forcing” yourself to come to the same answer every time. in a way, i almost felt like you were hiding how confident you felt about him being a wolf (or how much you actually wanted him to go over). i saw shreds of doubt and re-consideration in your posts about vulgard, but you always bounced back to the same conclusion of: “he’s probably a wolf”. i only really have an issue with this because of the fact that vulgard was, to my memory, your sole wolfread throughout the entirety of d1

Seconding this, tbfh. I think I remarked somewhere that the Proph/Vul argument had a W/W-ish feeling as both of those two had extremely one-directional reads on each other.

@sulit

Was Chloe widely townread or could her reads be important

Widely townread. There’s also the PR read I had on her but I’m not putting much stock in this read since I feel like I’m just projecting it onto the rest of the playerlist.

@sulit

Why was vulgard lynched d1

In general the way he treated my/Marl’s slots felt fairly ingenuine, so weh.

[staypositivefriend]

@Prophylaxis

I need to do a more exhaustive examination of will’s posts, but the world I’m worried about is the world where will is v and either you or Alice are trying to keep him in the PoE

As I mentioned before, the katze kill really indicated to me that the wolves were pretty comfortable with thread consensus, and will was a heavy wagon towards EoD yesterday. Hence why I am definitely unsure about him being a wolf.

As for Eli, I want to trust in Chloe’s read on him since she has much more experience than me on reading him. And I could be placing too much weight on the NK, but I don’t think that wolf Eli spikes the slot that was shielding him yesterday and that he was suspecting

but there’s a difference between being “unsure” that will is a wolf and taking will outside of your POE entirely. you don’t leave the possibility for will to be a wolf in your POE, which implies to me that you aren’t just “not sure” about him - it implies that you townread him

so, assuming that you do townread him, can you go into more detail about why?

also i actually agree - i trust chloe to be able to read eli more accurately than pretty much everyone here, and i think eli has had a few individually moments today. i was just surprised to not see him in your POE because i didn’t recall you townreading him

[staypositivefriend]

gotta go for a bit, will be back later

[Alice]

@Alice

@Prophylaxis

I need to do a more exhaustive examination of will’s posts, but the world I’m worried about is the world where will is v and either you or Alice are trying to keep him in the PoE

Why shouldn’t will remain in the PoE?

Like, as SPF and I mentioned he has previous experience with ToS/ToL so he isn’t a complete newbie and him mentioned that he bussed probably means that he has more experience in social deduction games than we think.

I’m not entirely sold that his push on Emilia is not posturing as he’s not really developing it in any way whatsoever or making a case for her yet.

@Prophylaxis

I still would like the explanation here?

[Wisp]

his posts were cringe

@staypositivefriend
the questions requires me to backread and try to lean the game as a whole, which I am not doing at this time, regardless of what anyone thinks of my slot.

even finding anything of note on Alice requires me to iso dive, other than the things I already pointed out.

[Prophylaxis]

@staypositivefriend

also, the second line of this post doesn’t really make sense to me

your poe is Wisp, one of me/alice, and a third unnamed deepwolf

you then go on to say that “if wisp flips W, i need to figure out if either of spf/alice were bussing”

your POE doesn’t allow for a world where wisp isn’t a wolf, and your POE also doesn’t allow for a world where neither me or alice bussed wisp, so i don’t understand why you’re acting like those are both questions that are still fully up in the air for you

If I make the assumption that Wisp is a wolf here, then I have to ask myself this question - if either you or Alice are aligned with him, would you have either toppled Windward like that midway through Day 1? IIRC, Alice started the push on her, then you hopped on, then Chloe did. That was what I trying to explain there.

@staypositivefriend

if i recall correctly, windward was definitely the consensus, “most likely to go over” chop until the final couple of hours of d1. there was a pretty large wagon on windward that formed mid-d1, and it stayed that way until closer to the EOD. by all accounts, it did look like windward was going to go over on d1 for a large period of time

this is worth taking into consideration if you’re thinking about who could be bussing windward’s slot - since in a world where windward is a wolf, the wolves already likely started bussing or distancing from her on d1

OK, I need to double check the wagons then since I was kinda away from Sunday evening up until Monday morning, but I had the distinct memory that wagons were split between WWA/Vulgard/willtaylor, and then Emilia started getting more heat during EoD.

@Wisp

I could not find the interaction. and I didnt even particularly hone in on the people voting me, I knew there was a train on Windward when I replaced in, but it didnt really change my reads. I do not think we are at the point where that is a problem.

But you said you “hated Alice on reread”. Is there a particular reason why you do?

@Wisp

GGhana is definitely not town-core but was not someone I wanted to focus on, In particular though I find it crazy how he always talked about you being an obvious wolf, but always seemed to find his vote somewhere else. I remember him one time making a post about no one wanting to go to you, but that doesn’t really seem in line with his personality if he truely wanted someone dead.

This is reading more to me that you “didn’t want to deal with Ghana” as opposed to actually townreading him - I don’t see any reasoning really here that indicates why you think he was town, it’s just a general observation of his play. Why is he a townread of yours?

[Prophylaxis]

@Alice

@Prophylaxis

I still would like the explanation here?

I took him out of my PoE because of that one micro read (him bragging about getting Vulgard right) which imo tends to come from villagers more than wolves. I started to look at him again though because I wanted to see what exactly his progression on Emilia looked like.

spf is correct in that being a braggart hadn’t really been a consistent part of his personality, it’s just one random sentence in a ISO that is mostly focused on Emilia. Hence why I’m looking over him right now.

[Prophylaxis]

@sulit

Vulg was mislunched because I thought he didn’t believe in his own reads. I played a big part in getting him mislunched and I take full responsibility for that.

[Leafia]

All I’ll say is that I had a feeling it was GGhana replacing out as soon as I saw that you needed another replacement. Welcome to the game Sulit.

[Prophylaxis]

I wanna respond to some of more of spf’s posts and also look over Alice/will

Gimme a quick sec

[Leafia]

[Leafia]

Tried doing the whole thing but wasn’t sure how to.

[Prophylaxis]

Walter white making that face is still pretty funny though NGL

[Alice]

@Wisp

I could not find the interaction. and I didnt even particularly hone in on the people voting me, I knew there was a train on Windward when I replaced in, but it didnt really change my reads. I do not think we are at the point where that is a problem.

Marluxion is especially in his town meta
Spf was someone I skimmed over, but I never once had a reason to hate her. Well there was actually one post, where she talked about someones wolf meta, and how their play here doesnt make sense if they are a wolf, or soemthing of the sorts. I hated it, but I never noted it down per usual, so I would have to find it
GGhana is definitely not town-core but was not someone I wanted to focus on, In particular though I find it crazy how he always talked about you being an obvious wolf, but always seemed to find his vote somewhere else. I remember him one time making a post about no one wanting to go to you, but that doesn’t really seem in line with his personality if he truely wanted someone dead.

@Wisp

his posts were cringe

@staypositivefriend
the questions requires me to backread and try to lean the game as a whole, which I am not doing at this time, regardless of what anyone thinks of my slot.

even finding anything of note on Alice requires me to iso dive, other than the things I already pointed out.

Meh, fairly comfortable where my vote’s at.

@Wisp

Which posts from SPF? How exactly would she not be able to replicate that meta talk as a wolf?

[Wisp]

@Alice
I brought up that post, well thought, specifically because I hated it, idk if I didnt make that clear?
I have no real intention of backreading atm

who else wants to be added to the list of asking me questions that I don’t feel like answering since they require me to actively backread, which I am not doing any time, you can off me if that’s the course we are going to take.

[Leafia]

Sure. I can do.that.

Towncore

Leafia: Me of course.
Arctic: I still feel he’s always town here as he’s provided reasoning for his pushes and I feel that he believes his reasoning.
Wisp: 95% certain this slot is town. Given how Wind’s RL has been treating her this game, I don’t see any reason to scumread her and the push on her feels super agenday to me like she’s the designated mislynch

Townread

Alice: She slipped down from towncore admittedly because not only was she a major pusher on Vulgard if I remember correctly but now she’s a major pushermon Wind and I feel she’s a good enough player to not be pushing Wind as a villager although I’m not willing to scumread her just yet.
Marl: slipped out of my towncore fo egg the same reasons that Alice did. He really should take a look at my earlier wolfgames.
Proph: Him and his solving just have a villagery feel that I like.

SPF: Same reasoning as Proph honestly.

Townlean

GGhana/Sulit: A slot I’m conflicted on and I’ve been constantly second guessing myself on. A lot of people are saying they’re town despite how I’ve been reading them so maybe there’s something about them that I’m missing.

Scumread

Will: I still scumread this slot although I can see a possibility of me being wrong about it.
Emilia: Had a terrible EoD and even before that I was scumreading her slot.
Eli: He just jumped right in to vote Vulgard which I found to be very wolfy.

[Marluxion]

Why does Proph ignoring your slot make him a wolf if you are town though?

[Marluxion]

I’m not following the logic