Wisp sounds genuine today, but much of that could be because wisp is asking legitimate questions about D1
I don’t like that Wisp was the reason vulguard was lynched and I’d agree with the people saying wwa sounded wolfy
I get that part, I noticed that stuff before I even replaced in
also ya, written makes makes forum mafia a whole different ball game
i mean technically it was Eli, and even more technically it wasn’t me, it was Windward 
Your slot, rather
I mean its not even true if you look at the post I quoted, unless Marl wants to argue that Windward changed their read on Vulgard, just so they didnt need to vote you. Which “meta” states that wouldnt be the case, since Windward mostly busses anyways
right, this is a reasonable question to ask, but your POE already answers it for you. according to your POE, if wisp flips wolf, then one of me/alice did, in fact, bus wisp. furthermore, your POE makes the assumption that wisp will flip wolf, but your actual posts about wisp seem to be a lot more doubtful than your POE implies
what im getting at here is that your POE has definitive answers for questions that are acting uncertain about, and that’s the source of my confusion
i dont really understand how you get from: “wind has been super busy IRL in this game” to “wind is a villager because she’s being pushed on”. if we were in a position where wind was a wolf that barely had time to play the game, and if we were in a position where wind got wagoned by a bunch of villagers on d1 (me, chloe), don’t you think the wolves would decide to distance/bus her? wind has been a consensus suspicion slot since d1, so regardless of her alignment, i would expect the wolves to be distancing themselves from her
i find it a little odd too that you are suspicious of alice for pushing on wind but not suspicious of me for pushing on wind? but that might just be a meta thing
hold up, so does that mean you scumread the wisp slot too? if so, then why haven’t you been pushing on them? and if not, why are you saying “this other person is scummier than me!” if you don’t actually think they’re a wolf?
do you have any reads outside of emilia right now, at all?
this feels like such a non-answer. what do you think wisp’s alignment is?
Slight wolfread. If I would vote wisp or someone random I’d choose wisp
I’d rather wait to see more of how wisp plays the slot
mm okay, what reads do you have outside of emilia and wisp?
mm, let’s do some sorting:
so, not counting myself, we have:
Alice
Leafia
willtaylor
Marluxion
Wisp
Prophylaxis
Emilia
i’m immediately gonna take sulit (aka GGhana) out of my pool for the following reasons:
-
chloe’s most confident read on d1 was that GGhana was an obvious villager, and i like to take the confident reads of the dead players into consideration (they’re usually >rand accurate imo)
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GGhana’s posting today felt distinctly like it came from the perspective of a villager - there was a lingering bubbling frustration over how he felt he was being treated by the rest of the thread that built up throughout the dayphase, and you could see GGhana deliberately holding himself back from getting upset or posting more at certain points. when their is an internal battle going on between what a person wants to say vs what a person feels they should say, it’s usually indicative of that person being a villager, because the thought process & the general maneuvering of wolves are usually a lot more …simplistic & more focused on “looking” good
secondly, i’m going to take artic out of my pool for the following reasons:
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GGhana, who i think is a villager, was 99.9% confident that artic is a villager. it is clear that ghana and artic have a very specific/unique dynamic based on the way that they interacted with each other in this game, and i have no problem putting stock into his confident feeling that artic is most likely a villager
-
although i’ve felt that artic has had a lower presence today, his posts have consistently stayed villagery. he consistently exhibits both a high depth of thought and a high attention to detail, in a way that does not feel overly emphasized or performatively portrayed. if artic was a wolf that was paying that much attention to the game, i feel like he would ~do more~ to look outwardly villagery than simply popping in every once and a while to out a thoughtful analysis post & then dipping. the fact that artic’s towntells in this game have largely been understated is likely indicative of him being a villager
thirdly, i’m going to take eli out of my pool. this might seem like a left-field choice, but i think that eli is most likely a villager for the following reasons:
- he heavily defended & attempted to pull the momentum off of chloe’s slot when the rest of the thread was ganging up on her. when the rest of the thread had come around to chloe being a villager, eli suddenly changed his mind at the last second, and decided to start wolfreading/shading chloe
i think that this is villager indicative behavior for eli because of the specific dynamic that chloe/eli showed throughout d1. it’s clear that chloe is both very familiar w/eli and is very good at reading eli accurately, and in a world where eli is a wolf, i think his primary focus would be on getting chloe to townread him & think well of him. eli suddenly deciding to shade chloe and try to make her look bad after he had spent the entirety of the dayphase building up goodwill/towncred by defending chloe early is something that makes NO sense to do as a wolf. it lacks basic strategic intent, and this type of whiplash-y behavior almost always comes from a villager perspective
- eli’s progression on emilia is quite similar to his progression on chloe, and it’s almost equally villagery. eli only decided to start shading & pushing on emilia when the rest of the thread had more or less determined that she had to be town. why does eli, as a wolf, decide to suddenly start scumreading a player that the plurality of the thread has been passionately defending and shielding? eli does not strike me as the type of wolf player to try really hard to “make waves” or turn the threadstate around, so his choice to narrow in on emilia feels like it comes from the POV of a villager that is genuinely trying to hunt vs a wolf that is trying to opportunistically push on emilia
so, if all three of those names are villagers, that leaves me with 3 wolves in this pool of 7 names:
Alice
Leafia
willtaylor
Wisp
Prophylaxia
if i had to take another name out of this pool, it would probably be marluxion. my main hesitation here is that in a world where the wisp slot is a villager, marl would look a lot worse, (although i do like him being willing to give wisp more time), and the fact that vulgard could not comfortably find marluxion as a villager brings me concern as well. in spite of this, i think that marl’s individual posting has been quite villagery. the fact that he rose from one of the lowest posters in the game to the 3rd highest top poster in the game is something that i’ve never seen from him as a wolf before - he usually follows the exact opposite trend. his actual posts have been pretty villagery too - showing a high depth of thought/complexity in his thought processes that he seems to struggle to replicate as a wolf. when i pair that with the fact that his passion/conviction behind his read on the WWE slot comes off as authentic, he’s probablyyyyy still a villager
if i had to take ~another~ name out of this pool, it would probably be emilia. it’s worth noting that this is almost ENTIRELY based on sponging the meta from my other townreads. emilia has been hard meta-shielded throughout the majority of the day by multiple people that i townread, and if emilia is such a polarized player that my townreads feel she’s 100% a villager based on her posting in this game, then she probably just is. i also don’t take much issue with her actual posts and have found some moments (such as her not voting vulgard for self-pres at the EOD1) individually villagery
so, if i take a leap of faith and assume that ALL of the above names are villagers, that means we have 3 wolves in the pool of:
Alice
Leafia
willtaylor
Wisp
Prophylaxia
now, that’s spicy! here are my brief thoughts on every player in this list:
-i won’t lie - the main reason alice is on this list is largely because of paranoia. the main reason i had to townread alice on d1 came by ~contrasting~ her play in this game with her play in the recent wolfgame i saw from her, but i feel that i would be doing alice a disrespect by assuming that she couldn’t easily adjust her meta and play in a different way. if i can’t trust in meta to help me read alice, then i’m finding myself with a lack of reasons to consider her slot a villager, beyond the typical: “she sounds tonally good at points”-esque stuff
-leafia has been pretty villagery, all things considered - i have liked the passion behind her defense of WWA today and i think that she and the wisp slot are most likely unaligned with each other. even so, leafia is one of those names that i wrote off as a villager for nebulous ~tone~ reasons on d1 and then failed to properly re-evaluate. given that some posts from leafia have raised my eyebrows and that there is nobody ~hard shielding her~, she’s naturally falling into my immediate pool of players that should be re-evaluated/watched with a close eye
-can anyone here tell me a single read that will has outed that ~isn’t~ just: “vulgard town” or “emilia wolf”? the fact of the matter is that i think that will is stuck, and it’s entirely possible that he’s stuck because he is a widely POE’d wolf in a villagery playerlist full of names that are difficult to push on. the fact that will is fixated on his read on emilia does not matter to me as much as the fact that he does not seem genuinely interested in sorting her, or anyone elses alignment. i see zero intent to scumhunt on will’s part, and zero intent to solve the game. i don’t have to stretch very far at all to imagine a world where will is a wolf
-i did not like wisp’s opening posts today much at all, and i felt similarly lukewarm about the majority of WWA’s posts. in spite of this, some of his posts today have been ~sort of~ tonally villagery, and the good news is that in a world where wisp is a villager, i think that he’ll make it pretty obvious within the next dayphase or two. i think that wisp could easily be a wolf but i’m willing to give him another dayphase to get his head into the game and start really towntelling
-there are sparks of villageryness that i see in some of proph’s posts - he is both incredibly thoughtful and incredibly thorough in every post that he makes, and i enjoy reading his posts solely for the sake of how much thought clearly went into them. the main barrier that prevents me from being able to get to a world where proph is the fact that his reads & his conclusions never feel proportional to the depth of thought that is reflected in his posts. the POE that he outed a few hours ago felt like it came from a different player entirely, and the stuff that proph was saying ~about~ that POE (ie: “i need to see if alice/SPF would bus wisp”) felt directly contradictory to his conclusions. i like the analysis, i like the open communication, and i like the depth of thought from proph, but i’m not so convinced that these are things that would be unique to proph’s towngame
so, in conclusion, i dunno. i’m gonna have to sit with this for a while. i probably want to vote will today. a couple of general questions for anyone that read through this post:
-
do you think my POE of 5 names is correct? if it’s not correct, who am i misclearing?
-
in a world where my POE of 5 names is correct, do you think that leafia/WWA could ever be partnered?
also, im gay
1 Like
There’s no flaw in this type of thinking
what?
Do I need to explain this? If someone is caught between pushing me first or wisp first, even if I don’t strongly believe wisp to be a wolf it’s still better to give reasons why they’re wolfier than me
Possible Wolves
- Marl (strong read)
- Emilia (strong read)
- Leafia (weak read)
- Wisp (weak read)
I dont know
- Proph
- Eli
Possible Villagers
- Alice (weak read)
- staypositivefriend (moderate read)
- GGhana (strong read)
- Arctic (strong read)
Here are my thoughts.
Marl doesn’t convince me. You know my thoughts on Emilia. Leafia seems theatrical. Wisp seems alright if premeditated.
Alice sounds good. Sfs sounds genuine. I like GGhana. I’ll trust the overwhelming consensus on Arctic.
I’m not going to make huge wallposts on people I don’t have experience with. From what I’ve seen, this is where I’d place the list
For the record, each adjective I used was aptly chosen, I’m not just throwing shit out there