[VFM] Town vs Bandits - Day 5 (4/13) - Bandits Win!

Not really much to talk about with the Day 3 wagons since Wisp felt like a pretty clear lunch for most of that Day, and his lack of self-preservation really felt like wolves were fine with him going over

Wisp trying to join the counterwagon on me to prevent his execution

Though one thing I did notice was that Emilia was the first/second vote on Wisp for most of the Day. However, in these votecounts, she unvotes Wisp and votes Marl.

@Emilia, can you explain why you did this?

Also I guess worth noting that Arctic never voted this phase either, which is kinda weird given that he didnā€™t really use his vote Day 2 either (only to place the 5th vote on will).

Alright, so Iā€™ve thought about this quite a bit and I think my tinfoil/pet team might actually be the real thing (Emilia/Arctic being a team)

Of course Iā€™m going to reread every other living player to make sure that Iā€™m not getting snowed by sulit or Leafia, but hereā€™s my reasoning on why I think this is the team rn:

  • Vote count analysis. On Day 1, Emilia hopped on Windward as the 4th vote on the wagon, but then quickly moved off of her. Pretty soon, Arctic develops the willtaylor counterwagon which manages to completely dissolve the Windward wagon. Emilia also joins this wagon on VC 1639. Once the will wagon dissipates and becomes an Emilia wagon, Windward moves her vote to Vulgard instead of Emilia, thereby tying the wagons. (Eli then hammers) Arctic also barely moves his vote on Days 2/3. On Day 3, Emilia had her vote on Wisp for the majority of the Day, but then late in the Day she unvotes and votes Marl instead.

  • Emiliaā€™s wolfread on Arctic literally comes out left field at the beginning of Day 3 and sheā€™s super confident on this read, despite no one else in the thread or game sharing this belief. Plus she doesnā€™t even really bother casing him or explaining to the class why heā€™s a wolf; she just makes a bunch of one-liner jabs with heavy meta mixed in.

  • Arctic hasnā€™t really caught a wolf this game. I think heā€™s had villagery micro posts, but if you zoom out and really ask yourself what heā€™s done, he hasnā€™t really accomplished a whole lot. He mostly tunneled will and waffled a lot on the Wisp/Windward slot. Right now him and Emilia are focusing a lot on slapfighting in order to look unaligned imo.

The thing Iā€™m unsure about though is wtf does this team ever kill Alice? I feel like this Arctic/Emilia team could pretty easily mislunch me for the win by leaving Alice alive, especially after her last post on D4. I would also expect Arctic to be shading me more/position me more as a suspect, but heā€™s saying in his spew analysis that I look okay. So why are they risking this?

Gonna head to bed, please do not vote

But the above is my solve rn, with ~some reservations and doubts

[quote=ā€œsulit, post:3962, topic:89035ā€]

proph meant towncore here so itā€™s actually the opposite lol

Thank you quote

yes
but i feel like the way wind went about pushing proph is more indicative of him being villager

This isnā€™t a thing because wind was trying to push Proph/Vul not being a team and got annoyed by people ignoring her take on this

Thatā€™s why itā€™s much more likely to be V/V, because if proph was mafia she would want people to think proph/vul were w/w to chain a vul elimination

bruh
i didnā€™t vote wisp because there was no need to, he was always going to be the elimination and i didnā€™t want to put him closer to hammer

i asked you to consider worlds where he flipped town because i wanted to know where your reads were at so that if you were mafia you couldnā€™t perfectly strategize your mislynch the next day

I was saying that if leafia or marl were mafia then they were having good wolf games so theyā€™re likely to show the same level of emotion as mafia too, not just town

Iā€™ll finish catching up soon

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Youā€™re voting first, so no one else will vote until you do.

i donā€™t think he was in antispew when he replaced in because he didnā€™t just fall over, like he was trying to get eli killed over him
admittedly i think his day 3 content might be less useful for analysis but i still feel like itā€™s somewhat relevant
wolves still slip stuff when they are supposedly in antispew, often by trolling villagers with their TMI and defending LHF which is what it looks like wisp was doing with you

very little of your posts that iā€™ve seen recently have made me go ā€œwow, that was villageryā€
itā€™s a similar problem to your day 1 content in that it was just good but not villagery
everyone is more towny than you

because my goal with wisp spew wasnā€™t to read specifically about your slot, itā€™s just that most of wispā€™s useful content was relevant to you

Or because vul is a better player and thus better ML.

Also i agreed with Alices proposal to CFD to wind, but she never changed her vote so.

because someone told me that it was okay if someone else hammered at that point

the only reason i didnā€™t vote before was because i didnā€™t want to put them at l-1 because i didnā€™t want people to hammer

i normally donā€™t do anything with my vote until later in the day but this is why it was especially late

what
no one in this f5 has caught a wolf except for arguably you so i donā€™t understand why this is relevant
why are you confident that me and emilia are arguing to look unaligned rather than us just being unaligned? what makes it ā€œlookā€ like that rather than it actually being that?

this segment is in pretty bad faith for a number of reasons

iā€™m confused though because i told proph that he doesnā€™t have villagery posts but spew looks good for him, so iā€™m not sure what heā€™d have to gain as a wolf by saying that the spew might not be relevant even tho it looks better for him

Iā€™m honestly just about convinced that Proph is just a wolf here. Today makes absolutely no sense in worlds where you and Emilia are w/w and his posts seem designed to just make you look bad if you ask me.

image

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he seems to be putting more emphasis on me being a wolf than emilia though which makes sense if emilia/proph is the team
because it kinda looks like heā€™s setting up to vote me

Yeah, Iā€™m honestly considering the possibility of that world being the case too.

Or because I am a villager and am more likely to vote you with him than other way around.