[VFM] Town vs Bandits - Day 5 (4/13) - Bandits Win!

[Wazza]

Votecount

Voted	Voters	Count
Emilia	willtaylor, EliThePsycho	2/6
willtaylor	Leafia, Alice	2/6
Alice	Marluxion	1/6
Prophylaxis	Sulit	1/6
Wisp	Prophylaxis	1/6
Not Voting	Arctic, Emilia, Wisp, staypositivefriend	4

Majority is 6. Day ends at 2021-09-02T20:00:00Z

[Alice]

Meh, kinda removing Marl from the third place in my readlist and putting him under Emilia.

He feels more lethargic and less spammy and aggressive than your average obvtown Marl, tbfh.

[Alice]

@staypositivefriend

Alice
Leafia
willtaylor
Wisp
Prophylaxia

@staypositivefriend

so, in conclusion, i dunno. i’m gonna have to sit with this for a while. i probably want to vote will today. a couple of general questions for anyone that read through this post:

1. do you think my POE of 5 names is correct? if it’s not correct, who am i misclearing?
2. in a world where my POE of 5 names is correct, do you think that leafia/WWA could ever be partnered?

Eli or possibly Marl?

I think Leafia’s just probably just villaging and her thinking WWA’s a villager for ??? reasons isn’t that off for her.

For the second one, I don’t think Leafia/WWA is ever a team as she struggles a lot with TMI, so for her to put a teammate under fire like this as her top read is pretty much an impossibility, I think?

[Alice]

…I’m kind of back at Eli being V as I don’t think he tries to be this anti-consensus-y as a wolf?

[Alice]

Feels kind of more like an independent tunnel for a bad reason, tbfh?

[Alice]

Marl/Proph don’t really seem to be that of a realistic pairing from how Marl was egging Proph on, so eh.

[Alice]

@Prophylaxis

Eli, if you think Emilia is “kind of wolfy”, then why are you not voting her?

Bleh, I don’t think this is W/W as well in the same vein of Marl/Proph?

[Alice]

Wisp/Proph/Will looks like it’s the Level 1 world.

Still every time that I try to imagine a world with W!Eli I kinda get stuck.

Marl having an above average wolfgame and SPF deepwolfing are also possibilities.

…I don’t think SPF has been as influential in the gamestate as she was yesterday?

[Alice]

I’m basically atp where I don’t think Emilia/Leafia/Sulit/Arctic are ever wolfing, tbfh?

Maybe if Emilia starts to peter out late-game then I’ll consider that possibility, but eh.

[Alice]

I feel like Marl’s progression on the PoE has been fairly smooth, tho.

Like from suspecting Will to thinking he’s a villager for being anti-consensus on him or from shielding WWA, to wanting her to get chopped, to shielding Wisp and giving them a day, and I don’t really think he’s W/W with Proph as well so…

Meh, prolly just a villager?

[staypositivefriend]

@Alice

For the second one, I don’t think Leafia/WWA is ever a team as she struggles a lot with TMI, so for her to put a teammate under fire like this as her top read is pretty much an impossibility, I think?

mm yeah, i was thinking the same thing. a world where:

A. my POE of 5 names (alice, leafia, will, wisp, proph) is correct

B. leafia/wisp are not partnered

would mean that there are 2/3 wolves in the pool of alice/will/proph. it doesn’t feel impossible for this to be the case, but it feels a bit too easy, and it’s being igniting some of my tinfoil about one of the widely townread people being miscleared

[Prophylaxis]

hi. proph can’t sleep, so you get insomniac proph for tonight

ftr I double-checked wagons and spf is right. windward was probably the first major wagon of the game but it slowly subsided into splitting wind/will wagons by 1321, and then will became a more full-fledged wagon by 1436. then vulg started picking up steam in 1564, splitting with will, but by 1756 emilia rose up to be a counterwagon as opposed to will. i should probably do some cursory votal analysis in the morning

[Alice]

@staypositivefriend

would mean that there are 2/3 wolves in the pool of alice/will/proph. it doesn’t feel impossible for this to be the case, but it feels a bit too easy, and it’s being igniting some of my tinfoil about one of the widely townread people being miscleared

Yeah, a wolfteam of Will/Wisp/Proph’s basically the one that’s on my mind rn as WWA’s slot holders both have been underwhelming, Will’s tunnel feels extremely performative, and I feel like Proph has had a very narrow focus on the gamestate.

But I can’t keep shaking off that this shit just feels way too easy and that there’s someone slipping by. I really have a hard time seeing Marl/Eli, but they kind of look like the most likely players that I’ve wrongly townread?

You’re also there for paranoia reasons lmao.

[Prophylaxis]

@staypositivefriend

i agree that the attitude of: “i was right, y’all suck!” is more likely to come from a villager than a wolf, but i think our disagreement is in how much will actually showed that attitude. will bragged about being right in a single post, but none of his other posts have felt as though they carry that underlying attitude, and i’m reluctant to take any stock into a read that’s based on a ~single~ line and not an overarching attitude

i know i mentioned this post earlier, but i do understand this viewpoint and it is giving me some food for thought. i was thinking about this line again a little bit earlier after we talked about it, but the reason why I’m still coming to the conclusion that it is villagery for will specifically was because

• he was fairly consistent about defending Vulgard and listing him as a townread for most of D1. Along with Emilia wolf, that was one of his few reads he gave out
• while will’s hasn’t really been a braggadocio (omg, that’s actually a word??) i do think that he has consistently displayed a tongue-in-cheek tone that kind of matches with that single phrase being “Also I knew vul was town ”. some of the tongue-in-cheek tone he displays in his posts are in like, 1996, 1493, 1072, 942.

maybe this read is a little too on-the-nose, but i think it’s been really difficult to get a window into will’s mindset in general this game because i feel like he’s pretty closed off, but this line in particular is like a tiny window crack if that makes sense

[Alice]

What do you make on his tunnel on Emilia?

[Prophylaxis]

@staypositivefriend

1. my usual MO is very similar to what you’re seeing now, but i usually include a lot more posts where i “dig deeper” into peoples ISOs or try to poke holes in their progressions. i’ve focused less on doing that in this game because the formatting doesn’t allow for that type of play super easily, and because it seems like the best way to get reads on a site like this is just to chat in real time until people start towntelling/wolftelling

i am definitely a collaborative player/i put a lot of stock into pressuring and getting reactions out of people, but there are some games where i play more individualistically and go into a “detective mode” of sorts, where my thoughts are much more internally based and where i’m a bit more coy about where my head is at in any given moment. this has definitely been a game where i have been deliberately more coy

OK, I think I was looking for something like what you described in the first paragraph, where you said that you were digging deeper into ISOs/poking holes into people’s progressions, since I’m pretty sure that what how you played in ROCKS. Fair point in the formatting not allowing for the type of play - it’s definitely tricky how to get used to ISOing and composing posts on this site given it’s Discourse.

I’ve definitely felt that you’ve played this game more individualistically (sick, that’s a word too) and have been deliberately coy, but i wasn’t exactly sure if it was a playstyle thing or if it was somehow indicative of your alignment. thanks for giving me a rundown on that

@staypositivefriend

• this is a case where being coy about my reads comes back to bite me, because i probably won’t be able to give you a satisfactory answer to that question until i go back and re-read my own posts toward the end of day one. if i recall correctly, i was focused very hard on getting will to slip up/contradict himself under pressure, and i felt mostly lukewarm about the way that he reacted to me. i was uncomfortable with wagoning him largely due to GG shielding him (i townread GG pretty comfortably at that point, and this is one of those games where i’ve been putting stock into the reads that my townreads feel confident about, because i trust them to navigate this super meta-filled environment with more accuracy than me)

point to me exactly when you townreading ghana? was it after you did some real-time with him? iirc you only let the cat out of the bag wrt your read on ghana Today, but unless i’m misreading something I don’t recall you mentioning a townread on ghana yesterday.

(unless this was all internal and you were using that to guide you at eod)

@staypositivefriend

2. i thought your progression on vulgard was rigid because it almost felt like you were “forcing” yourself to come to the same answer every time. in a way, i almost felt like you were hiding how confident you felt about him being a wolf (or how much you actually wanted him to go over). i saw shreds of doubt and re-consideration in your posts about vulgard, but you always bounced back to the same conclusion of: “he’s probably a wolf”. i only really have an issue with this because of the fact that vulgard was, to my memory, your sole wolfread throughout the entirety of d1

fair, okay. yeah that’s why I’ve been kicking myself for some part of today because everything was there to find him. i should have really paid more stock and attention to his later d1 posting, but I think because I was sleeping when he was around and he left the thread when I woke up was the reason why I just didn’t put as much stock into that as I should have. i feel like part of the reason why i wasn’t able to get there on him was because we never really had a great time on d1 to really real-time

[Prophylaxis]

@Alice

What do you make on his tunnel on Emilia?

objectively speaking, i don’t like it because i’m townreading emilia

but i did some ISOing to figure out if he’s pushing emilia because of agenda or because if he genuinely believes that emilia will flip w, and… my brain says the former my gut says the latter lol

like these sentences from him makes my gut feel like he believes emilia will flip W. thoughts?

@willtaylor

I hope you can see what I’m saying about Emilia.

@willtaylor

I’ve given my thoughts on Emilia

@willtaylor

Oh damn if we’re voting Emilia I’m all for it

/vote Emilia

@willtaylor

I agree. We’re w/w. Why don’t we get Emilia first and then you can get me

[Prophylaxis]

@Leafia

Arctic: I still feel he’s always town here as he’s provided reasoning for his pushes and I feel that he believes his reasoning.

i don’t really recall who arctic has exactly pushed today - he’s said that willtaylor is a wolf and has continued to push the argument that he isn’t a new player, but hasn’t voted him. is his push on willtaylor and your belief that he believes his reasoning on why willtaylor is a wolf/not a new player the reason you’re townreading him?

@Leafia

Wisp: 95% certain this slot is town. Given how Wind’s RL has been treating her this game, I don’t see any reason to scumread her and the push on her feels super agenday to me like she’s the designated mislynch

your scumreads are will, emilia, and eli, none of whom have voted wisp today. if you feel like this slot is the “designated mislunch”, then who has been been driving it in your opinion? judging from the rest of your post, you seem to think it might be alice, but why is she in your townread section? your stated reasoning doesn’t match up with her position in that list

@Leafia

Emilia: Had a terrible EoD and even before that I was scumreading her slot.
Eli: He just jumped right in to vote Vulgard which I found to be very wolfy.

eli just voted emilia and thinks she’s mafia. do you believe these two could be w/w together?

@Marluxion

Not sure
Vulgard shouldn’t have died yesterday imo and fmpov it has to be because a wolf was pushing him over will

why do you think vulg shouldn’t have died yesterday? iirc you were heavily scumreading vulg, will, and to a lesser extent windward yesterday

[Alice]

I kinda don’t really see a continuous conviction behind his tunnel, tbfh.

Like, he’s been voting her all this time but in between his tunnels he kinda just stops, defends himself, and doesn’t really bother trying to convince us to lynch her or further develop his read on her.

It basically feels almost at like a completely performative level where he’s just trying to signal to the thread that he’s trying to do something but never really puts his soul into it.

[Prophylaxis]

@Wisp

ok

/unvote Proph
I am rereading this slot first, and I take back what I said about his handling of Vulgard, Vulgard gave him nothing to change his read their, despite whatever the hell Ghana was reading. Proph getting paranoid at the end of the day is still NAI at best though.

His lack of vote movement is still a problem, but like at least in the MTGS game where he was town, he moved his vote around, after people gave him enough responses to change his read. Vulgard did not, and he had expected Vulgard to do so.

if you don’t think i’m a wolf, wisp, who do you think are? i know you haven’t read the thread super closely but want to hear your thoughts. still don’t have an explanation on why you “hate” alice or why you have not really mentioned her since then?

@staypositivefriend

right, this is a reasonable question to ask, but your POE already answers it for you. according to your POE, if wisp flips wolf, then one of me/alice did, in fact, bus wisp. furthermore, your POE makes the assumption that wisp will flip wolf, but your actual posts about wisp seem to be a lot more doubtful than your POE implies

what im getting at here is that your POE has definitive answers for questions that are acting uncertain about, and that’s the source of my confusion

my actual posts are doubtful because i literally pushed vulgard off a cliff yesterday and he was town, when i really wanted to play with him. i’m acting uncertain because i think this game is going to be on Hard Mode and i do not think i am playing a good game atm with how I approached day 1.

what i was trying to explain in that post was that if wisp flips scum, then i will have to re-look at his/windward’s interactions to see if the world i am living in is the correct one (ie: the world where either one of you or alice bussed ww), and if it is, then i will need to evaluate which one of you is the villager and which one is the wolf. that’s what i was trying to explain