@Marshal if my potential read is bad then I am so sorry, but I am trying to solve by finding patterns. I am fine with following Alice’s last words, but where do we go if Whyspser flips town or wolf?
finding patterns = meta = really just not a reliable way of reading
regardless of alignment if often ends up cherry picked and riddled with confirmation bias
it only really works on people like seth or italy who are insanely obvious between alignments
Whys Wall
As you are all aware, I have been someone who has decided to stay back and relax in this game, but today, since we are not far off losing is when I am deciding to come forth and lead us as much as I can.
I will explain today why Whysper is innocent despite being an easy ML bait target.
The first post or posts if they are not long after each other are things that players seem to always think
about. The entrance post is absolutely relaxed. Whys seems to know some of what has happened by does not try to solidify herself as any focal point whereas I would expect scum to want at least some level of presence.
This is the most questionable post in my opinion because Whys is just going along with Marshal which is not bad in itself but she uses it as a way to claim which really erks me. Although it is obvious scum would only claim regular student, unless they were overtly gutsy and about to die, it does reduce the pool for the honour student and I think scum would have thought this through beforehand as it could be taken as scummy. TWTBAW esque post.
The fact that Whys posts something like this instead of trying to attach any indication of whether Derps is acting one way or the other seems really good to me. At this point Whys basically is following my exact thought process of being town due to scum likely having it together and being able to stop these types of sus posts. Not to mention that her reads almost contradict what she was saying earlier. As she liked Appel for considering Alice and Marshal Wolf worlds and then has both in town core which seems… weirdly inconsistent from where their mind was before.
The only world from this that I can see W!Whys is with an inactive wolf partner or an inexperienced one.
This is honestly the best post by Whysper imo. It really is not much on its own, but it was followed up (Albeit in a horrendous manner) in a way which I think T!Whys would follow. Case A, B and C follow up are really good, but were spoiled by the inclusion of a lot of self meta which is why I say it is horrendous, however, she at least explains some thought process too.
Not long after it is followed by a reads list which actually highlights their views during the “Cases” that she had made before. I wish that she had actually explained the read on me some more or revisited it more recently but I think it is reasonable from a town perspective
She has had a weird tone today but I do not think that W!Whys goes for risky things like a scum team read on Alice and Marsh which is followed up by Alice flipping town and the rest is history with Whys changing a bit since
Not all the time, as everyone has tells. Even stronger players have tells. It’s just harder to find tells in better players. Hell, I have tells that are AI. We do these habits/tells/mannerisms subconsciously. I will continue to research your potential tells, but this argument is counter productive.
I suspected you for the above reasons, but I think you have some wolf equity for a few reasons.
-
Your jokes about being mafia:
This is one of my weaker reasons, but I don’t like them and they very much remind me of tos2399 marshal. -
You are still alive:
This reason is also semi weak, but I would think a T!Marshal with good reads would be killed by now. -
The night kill last night:
Seth is a very strange night kill over people like you and Alice. He had no influence in the thread, he was only TR for being Seth, and his reads are a hit or miss. It just doesn’t make sense that Seth would be the night kill over someone like Alice or you. I do think Seth’s death was deliberate. Think about it
kill Seth (2 vs 8)
someone goes boom on the bomb (2 vs 7)
we mislynch Alice (2 vs 6)
someone dies overnight (2 v 5)
someone dies on the bomb again (2 v 4)
and this is where it differs on Whypsers alignment
(if wolf) we lynch Whsyper on Alice’s request (1 v 4)
(if town) same thing as above (2 v 3)
then they just have to night kill and bomb in either scenario -
The way you handled Alice:
Alice was very suspicious after Seth died, but you should always give people a trial. You started this day voting Alice and encouraging others to quick hammer Alice. This is something I expect from Derps or Seth not you. You gave very little reasoning other than Alice is alive = lockwolf and even set up to lynch Whysper the next day. I feel like T!Marshal is a bit more careful and evaluates things more before going “let’s lynch X”.
I don’t think any of the lower skilled players could pull off a play like this without some coaching and you would have that experience, so this is why I think you have some major wolf equity and could be a wolf
Ohhh that is a good point
It really does make no sense that Marshall is still alive. If I were scum, even as a new scum, I would have wanted him taken care of by now. The only reason I can think of that scum would keep him alive is either his reads are way off or he’s literally a wolf.
The thread is pretty much dead, I’ll probably finish stuff and then do a readlist.
Let’s get this started, shall we?
Did some other stuff while I was at it, but it’s done now.
Whysper
SLIGHT TOWNLEAN
Gutread go brr
Whysper has had a great tone at the start, despite what Alice said. Upon re-reading, I do notice there hasn’t been much solving, but their reads made sense and I could get behind their thought process easily. However, as the game has gone on, the focus on defending themselves instead of solving has become a bit suspicious so I’m willing to lower this read. That isn’t enough to make me scumread her, but I want to question Whysper more and see how this day goes.
Ngl, I was just watching some videos about criminal psychology and this is… a thing. It’s more silly than anything since this is also a valid excuse, but for a moment it did make me go “oh god oh fuck is Whysper actually a wolf”
Something that I also want to say is that in Wild West, while Alice’s townreads were correct (save for Cent), pretty much everyone in her immediate PoE was town. Alice might be an experienced player, but I trust my gut more than I trust her scumreads, especially when some of her points seemed streched or simply didn’t convince me. That’s why I’m ultimately against cuddling Whysper here.
an_gorta_pratai
SLIGHT TOWNLEAN
This deserves a slight townlean, because I still hold the belief that their interactions with Eli were really scummy; with that said, after doing a full ISO-dive and looking at their other scumgame, Gorta is overall towny. I got too focused on the interactions at EoD and completely forgot about everything else that made me originally place them that high on my previous readlist, but after going back and reading things over, I get more town pings than scum pings. Especially with today’s posts, I can understand their thought process clearly and believe it’s more likely to come from a town perspective.
Marshal
NULLSCUM
I originally thought this slot was towny enough to make me trust them, even though I had a few reservations about their reads, but Insanity’s flip and the way they’ve acted during this day is giving me lots of wrong vibes. They were setting up an Alice -> Whysper cuddle, and it’s not a good look given that Alice is V and I townlean Whysper here. With that said, their tone has been good and that’s what I’ve been basing some of this read on, so it’s not quite enough to go to the scumlean-territory.
SirDerpsAlot
TOWNLEAN
I’ve correctly gutread Derps’ as a wolf in previous games, and I’m not getting the same vibes here. It doesn’t seem like they care about how they appear, sometimes they go against the consensus and sometimes follow it. However, this doesn’t happen in a flip-floppy way and instead gives off the feel that their actions – and especially votes – are directed by their own thoughts rather than a wolf continously pushing agenta.
Esquiddy
SLIGHT SCUMLEAN
They’ve been mostly in the sidelines while giving out their own reads, so there’s not much to go off about them regarding interactions. Given how my current reads are, the following posts are giving me bad vibes
A piece of advice, or simply more like my own mindset: it’s always better if you post whatever comes to mind, rather than not posting at all. Posting helps people read you better and know your thought process.
This is confusing, to say the least. Marshal and Whysper are clearly against each other here; do you think they’re a scumteam together? If not, which one do you scumread more, and why? I can’t see the thought process here.
Trochilidae
TOWNREAD
I still can’t see anything that would make me think they’re scum here, their tone is basically identical to Wild West. They were more than willing to go boom if it meant it would help town, and although I don’t agree with it, it’s a valuable basis nevertheless. The birb is town.
PokemonKidRyan
NULLTOWN
They honestly don’t have much content to go off, but I don’t believe the way they defended Whysper comes from a wolf perspective unless the two of them are W/W. This read is really thin, but especially as they’re someone in PoE and generally not townread, it would be a suicide to go against the general consensus like that.
Luxy
NULL
Would you believe me if I said I’m too lazy for this and just want to motivate the thread instead of writing these thoughts no one will read if this goes on
@Marshal what are your reads as of now? I want to solve your slot the most.
@Luxy @an_gorta_pratai @Whysper @PokemonKidRyan @Esquiddy
Get in here and talk with me you nerds
I’ve kinda come to the realization that 9 people really isn’t too many. There are only 2 wolves left, I want you all to give me two people you think are most likely a scumteam, and why. If there are people you scumread individually, put them together and look at their interactions. Think to yourself; “Are these interactions likely W/W?” If the answer is no, re-evaluate.
Let’s get this game going.
These ones?
I personally think it’s probably serious, just because they continued it for more than one post. But I’m not Luxy, so I’ll let them answer for themselves.
