Why 5% is a big deal

#1

Premise 1: King is trustworthy so long as the odds of him being BD are greater than a random non-king D1
Premise 2: People won’t claim to someone who isn’t trustworthy be default

Odds of being evil (Cult/Unseen/NK) if you are not king:

3/15 or 0.2 or 20%

Odds of being non-BD if you are not king:

2 or 3 neuts averages at 2.5 neuts. 3 non-neut non-BD for a total of 5.5

5.5/15 or ~0.37 or ~37%

37 > 35
37 < 40

thus the 5% crossed a thresh hold that makes king go from most trustworthy to least trustworthy.

Oh and if you assume that all 3 neuts spawn then its 6/15 or 0.4 or 40% = 40% meaning King is NEVER trustworthy now.

2 Likes
#2

I always policy lynch the king
It works 40% of the time, 100% of the time.

12 Likes
#3

but thats not effective since king can be good and then you wont be able to lynch next day

#4

That’s why I only lynch the good king when i’m evil :^)

works every time

8 Likes
#5

Wait. So 60% of the time it works 40% of the time and 40% of the time it works 80% of the time

2 Likes
#6

but dont forget that there is also this 0% chance and 0*80=0 so there is 0 chance of no success

#7

0% chance of what?

#8

of failing

#9

Prove it mathmaticaly

#10

@MathBlade

#11

Yeah he’s not coming

#12

rip

#13

I need time to process this and I am getting ready for work. Will respond later.

5 Likes
#14

When is later btw?

#15

Dunno, it works for me every time expect in times when it doesn’t.

#16

Well it never seems to work for me except when it does

1 Like
#17

60% of the time it works every time

#18

60% of the time it works 80% of the time

#19

Err… 40% of the time

#20

5% is a big deal rn

1 Like