Oh, that’s the thing. I’m not looking for a specific tell. I’m looking for details I’ve missed in ISO’s or wagonomics, and indirect hints. That being said,reading spew has also not gone that well for me in this game, but I’m still sifting through for information.
Alright welp.
I have to go eat dinner now.
I’ll probably return back in like an hour or 2 unless I get distracted by something else.
Someone said to get my head out of confbias which I obviously did not.
I found some of Illwei’s earlier posts to be towny and then decided to doubt my reads because she looked progressively scummier as time passed, plus she was not super active and fit the “scum unaware of threadstate” theory.
I found Shurian’s earliest posts to be at least somewhat towny, but dropped the townread on them when they reaction tested by voting Eli with no explanation. They also fit the “inactive scum” theory.
I found Derps’s D1 and D2 posts to be towny and I only scumread him because of “inactive scum” and his push on me, but he was correct in saying he could’ve pushed someone else more easily as scum. And before he got yeeted, I started doubting if he was scum because it seemed almost too convenient that he’d be entirely clueless about the JoaT claims, when a wolf would have a second wolf to at least summarize the updates. I thought he could be feigning thread ignorance, though, and I was also willing to policy vote him anyway.
Wagonomics haven’t told me much. The only thing I’ve really noted so far is Maple hammering all over the place, and that’s a Maple thing and not AI. But if Maple has done nothing technically AI for themself all game and has pushed the “OK, scum must be stupid and inactive” view, I can easily see it as a cover for them plus agenda push, all in one. Arctic is capable of the same, but from his meta i would expect that less of him unless he’s being solidly coached by his partner (which,yes, is possible). But he’s been tunnelling his scumreads and I don’t see anyone else (besides me) doing the same, so I still see it as less scumlike than it could be.
I’m gonna continue this train of thought later because I have to go for a bit, but hopefully I’m giving everyone else something to think about, too.
Addendum to my last paragraph - as I said before, I kind of see Arctic’s tunnelling as a “third scum” function here, i.e., the scum is using him to push their agenda so they don’t have to do it. And same goes for me. I’ve been doing a great job of throwing all my D1 reads out the window because I didn’t trust them, and turned them all into (incorrect) scumreads and pushed them with whatever I could find.
Hey… I know I’ve kind of given up this game mostly.
But I wanted to thank you for at least trying to help me not to give up Wind.
It helps reinforce that you’re likely town since you’re not just trying to push me down into the ground and it’s finally letting me consider different worlds.
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Well, I’m guilty of tunnelling you, too 
but I’m trying to at least make use of past mistakes this game by using them to prevent future ones, so hopefully the rest of town can be inspired to do the same, too.
Although I will say, if Maple also flips town, I kind of think we may have lost at that point (or at least it means that every single theory I’ve had has been wrong lol). At least at this point, I know there’s at least one scum player other than Marl who’s worth voting as MVP xD
Im trying to think a bit farther ahead this time, since I didn’t do a very good job of figuring out potential scum before flips that I was fairly certain would be scum but were actually town. I think if Maple flips town specifically, Light would have to be the scum mastermind pulling this off. This is not to say that I individually scumread Light, but that I believe at least one of Maple/Light has to be scum to pull this off. I don’t know yet if I see them as a potential team, though.
I know Intensify self-meta’d and said they’re not good at deepwolfing, but if they have a good partner, they can still be considered potential scum imo. I’m having problems pinpointing anything in particular they’ve done as wolfy, although wagonomics from yesterday hint at something.
Remember the start of the day when Light voted Maple? Then Min voted Maple (but later took their vote off), I voted Maple, and Intensify voted Maple. I’m pretty sure one of us (and it wasn’t me) was looking for towncred for doing that, knowing Maple was not going to be voted out before Derps anyway.
If I’m doing the wagonomics thing correctly, then one of Light/Intensify should be yeeted after Maple if Maple flips scum. If Maple flips town, both are still potential scum, but then wagonomics fails here.
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You are guilty of it, but you’re giving me a sliver of hope from the darkness that has been this game.
So I cannot blame you.
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I feel like you’re leaning way too hard into PKR = town because lol el machina
but we’ll see where we are after Maple’s flip
Also
I 100% legitimately can’t blame anyone for the SDA execute
I was against it but even I wasn’t too confident in the read
derps was town because scum doesn’t just say ‘idk’ when asked who the second mafia is
scum comes up with a bullshit read on a LHF
i did say this yesterday
no one was willing to kill PKR though and they still aren’t so i’m not sure what i’m supposed to do here exactly
We still kill in PoE
Unless you’re exactly a mafia goon who didn’t kill and intensify managed to get past my iron fortress of mental instability, we still win.
why does me being town mean we win
there are still plenty of opportunities where we fuck up
5v2
elim maple
if town
4v2
nk on eli
3v2
me+you+intensify town = we win
alternatively
5v2
elim maple
if scum
5v1
nk on eli
4v1
miselim
3v1
nightkill
2v1
Some combination of me, you, and intensify will be alive in lylo, as well as the last scum
therefore
we win
are you implying if maple is town then it’s wind/PKR scumteam? how do you know intensify isn’t mafia?
this is interesting
I assume you’re planning to yeet me regardless of whether maple is or isn’t scum, based n this?
either that or you assume I’m getting night killed, and either way I’m dead before LyLo, but I don’t know exactly what makes you think that
Oh wait, I know the answer to that question lol. You meant because I’ve plopped you and Intensify into my PoE and also that Arctic never dies because he tunnels lol.