The funny thing is, I thought more people had PKR in their PoE so it would make more sense for PKR to be alive at the end, unless you’re all actively planning to yeet him before LyLo.
Happy New Year all. (It has been for like 2 and a half hours here)
I’m having a drink and trying to see if there is any sort of takeaway open.
I’ll be around.
Sad that this is the first new year I’m not spending with family or my partner… since he’s in tier 4 lockdown 
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Damn, sorry you couldn’t spend new year’s together. I’m not doing anything special either, tonight, since I’m taking care of my grandma, but I’m enjoying the occasional firework as it pops up. Most of the public ones have been cancelled for crowd control, but some private fireworks seem to be happening. So I’m just chilling and trying to fix a tripod I found in my grandma’s stuff that seems to be too unstable to use for long exposure photos lol. I’m also having a drink, so cheers!
Any new thoughts yet on the possible scum team, or are you still looking things over?
2 of Intensify, Light, Maple are evil I think.
Idk if this is the drink talking or what.
I’d likely lynch Intensify over Light because they’ve been my suspect since fake checks watch D2?
If Maple flips mafia then my thought is fucked of Light/Intensify being a team and pushing the ML on Maple.
But I’m trying not to go too deep into it as I’m hoping I’m not just being pocketed by you lol.
I don’t think I am but I would put anything past me this game tbh.
Arctic seems ok I think. A bit stuck in a rut but fine.
Eli is JOAT so lol.
So it leaves 2/3 of the rest as scum imo.
Hmmm ok so there seems to be a pattern with earlier posts looking better than slowly dropping off as the days past by.
To be honest, I feel like we’ve pushed this veiw a little too much as for what our PoE should look like. Scum are probably just stupid or galaxy brain.
Ok so to be honest, this is perfectly possible I guess, but there’s some holes in this. Mainly that scum fully relying on Arc pushing X is kinda… a bad plan in general. Arc might not push the right people they want or Arc just might change their views, overall dangerous and risky plan.
Two things
- You can ask Eli, my wolfplay was pretty bad last time I randed wolf.
- Having a good scum partner doesn’t mean that a bad scum will become a good scum. Cause unless that good scum is directly controlling everything the bad scum says and does, the bad scum will do things on their own.
If Maple flips town: Intensify/Light team.
If Maple flips mafia: Reevaluation needed. But likely Intensify over Light for the sheer fact that I scumread them longer.
I would reeval during night though
Well no.
Because if Maple flips town, it’s always you and Light scumteam since everyone else is mechconfirmed
Well I know I’m Town.
Eli and Arc are both mechanically confirmed
That leaves me, you, Wind and Light.
I know I’m good, and there’s like no world where Wind is scum ever, which then it just becomes you and Light as scumteam. Of course… if Maple flips town… which I doubt highly.
Arctic is only mech confirmed as not having done anything on N2 lol
so if he’s a goon, he’s not cleared. He’s basically only cleared from being a mafia JoaT.
All right, so from your POV, if Maple flips scum, who’s most likely to be the other scum? PKR or Light?
Sorry to hear that PKR… Safety is always he utmost priority, though. You simply have something to look forward to when lockdown lifts!
I agree on the “view” part
It would imply that either both scum are inactive, or one scum is active and inexperienced and willing to listen to the inactive one
The thing with this is that I also found PKR’s earliest posts to be mildly towny. I mentioned it in my reads sometime during D1. I also think PKR’s posts got progressively scummier, but he was pretty much tunnelled from D2 onward so I’m not really sure it was a fair evaluation on my part, especially since everyone else I’ve seen do that has flipped town so far. As I said, I’m looking for some sort of pattern to see what I’ve been doing wrong, and this is the main example of it. It would be pretty funny if I turned out to be wrong this time about being wrong, though.
Early reads aside, the other thing they all have in common is the “inactive/unaware” label that has obviously not proven to be an effective scum detector thus far. After two MLs I was willing to start doubting this, and after a third ML it’s too much to be a coincidence and it has to be a hidden agenda push.
Going back to my earliest reads, if by any chance they were actually correct, I had most people as a townlean and Eli and Maple were farthest down. I think Marl was the next farthest down, Intensify was null, Min was null, Arctic was at the top, PKR was somewhere near the top, I gave Light a tentative townlean that for some reason does not look like I convinced myself of (I went back and looked at it), and the rest of the dead town was between townlean and nulltown.
Yeah… never mind, looking at those early reads isn’t very helpful.
Lol no, townreading Arctic isn’t scummy at all. But assuming Arctic will not die despite being essentially locktown is a strange assumption.
So you’re thinking Maple/PKR as the main possibility?
The problem I have with that is what you said right after:
If Maple is scum, they aren’t inexperienced. I can’t think of anyone who is both active and inexperienced in this game other than Arctic or myself, and you implied that Arctic is locktown for you and (mysteriously) never going to die at night, so that would imply that I’m scum by your logic. But I think I should be spewed as non-scum for the same reason I believe Arctic is spewed as non-scum - because when the first night kill failed, both of us essentially said “scum must be stupid and/or not paying attention”. It implies that neither of us would have tried to kill Eevee during the night, and I said explicitly that I thought it would have made more sense for scum to kill a VT outside of the 4 JoaT claims to guarantee the kill. Of course, Maple also agreed with this logic, and I excused them for it as well because I figured they’d know better, but a galaxy brain scum who is experienced could definitely use it to their advantage and throw us off their trail by purposely picking the targets they did.
I don’t mean to underestimate Arctic when I say that I townread him and scumread Maple for the exact same commentary. But because Arctic is a newcomer, I believe he called the scum stupid in complete honesty, and because Maple is very experienced, I don’t necessarily think Maple simply thinks the scum are stupid at this point. They’re experienced enough and probably smart enough to have figured out by now that the inactive players are not scum, and yet they haven’t said anything against it and have continued hammering or voting them out as if they’re perfectly comfortable with doing so. And I, for one, am very uncomfortable with it.
Anyway, at this point there’s a very high chance we randed three very experienced wolves in this game, and Marl was just unfortunate enough to be yeeted first because people weren’t familiar with his meta, but also because the other wolves were also competent enough to take a D1 loss and neither bus for credit nor attempt to defend Marl so that they’d stay under the radar and push their agenda quietly.
I’m… not? In the world where Maple is not scum, there are three people alive. Eli always dies at night. So, that means Arctic is still alive… and it’s LyLo…
see where I’m going with this?