Unless he’s prince. In which case converting the sellsword wont help.
There is a practically infinite number of ways that a game can end up with an MM, SS, poss and BD. So you can’t say never …
Yes I can. Because once you get to that point there is a finite number of outcomes.
You tried to say I could never, as MM, have good reason to believe that poss will attack the BD that night. Which is not true because it’s not a deterministic outcome, it depends on the players’s knowledge and personalities.
I said the possessor would never have a good reason to attack the BD over the sellsword outside of a situation that would screw you over anyway. (Hunter or Prince)
He does not need perfect knowledge. He just needs to not be stupid. If he IS stupid then he wouldn’t get this far anyways.
That reasoning does not necessarily hold true for every possible case of 1 bd, 1 mm, 1 ss and 1 poss. Which means it is still theoretically possible for converting SS to be a good choice,.
You are Possessor when night begins and there are 3 other players. You think the last Assassin that died was Mastermind turned Assassin, so Unseen is dead. You know about the Sellsword, but he can win with you so you leave him alone. You think the Mastermind is Alchemist, so you leave him alone too. You kill the BD.
When day dawns you are shocked to find the “Alch” and “Sellsword” voting against you. (Actually the game might automatically end with you losing).
You are presuming what the possessor does in response to a situation. That goes beyond the game mechanics and thus allows for things such as the Possessor being afk an losing because of that (which we both agree is not something we need to balance for)
Of course I’m assuming the Possessor kills the BD, and also assuming that the MM correctly predicts this. That proves that it’s possible for converting the SS to be a good strategy.
No AFKs in this game because that would be meta gaming to prove my point which is not satisfactory to either of us.
No. Because that isn’t an assumption you can make. Give me a situation and then we won’t have to assume because assumptions like that lead to bad strategy’s.
I literally just did… You said I was “presuming” what the poss does as if that somehow made my proof invalid.
It does. Because you can determine a best course of action without the need for assuming what they will do. In other words you first need to prove that there isn’t an objectively best course of action to take and then present why the possessor killing the sellsword is the objectively worst decision to make and then prove why the MM converting the sellsword in that situation makes him more likely to win than otherwise and then prove why any of this leads to more interesting situations overall.
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Because you can determine a best course of action without the need for assuming what they will do.
Wrong. Players may take into consideration what others are likely to do in order to determine the best course of action. Assuming (or “predicting”) others’ choices can be a legitimate step in determining the best course of action.
Here is proof. In the scenario I defined, predicting the Possessor’s action is crucial because if you try to convert the Sellsword when the Possessor kills the Sellsword, the day will begin with a kingmaker BD player and you can lose.
Whereas if you knew the Possessor would kill the Sellsword, you would obviously have to convert the BD.
This is a situation where there is no “best course of action” for either the MM or Poss that does not involve predicting (or in your words, “presuming”) the actions of the other player.
then prove why any of this leads to more interesting situations overall.
“Interesting” is subjective and I never set out to convince you that converting a sellsword makes the game more “interesting”. Maybe some people find ToS more “interesting” because there is no conversion.
I’m only proving that converting a sellsword can be the best course of action.
Exactally. So you need to present a situation where converting the sellsword is beneficial rather than breaking even at best. As in that situation you have to real way to know what the possessor thinks about the data he has available. (In other words. Why would he ever assume that a dead assassin was the MM when he knows there is a living non-prince BD. Even if he actually does you would have no way to know that so it doesn’t help you) The best you can do is use it for WIFOM.
Also there is the fact that the sellsword himself doesn’t want to be converted so you also need to set up your situation where he doesn’t know anyone’s class. Why? Because if he guards the BD then the possessor has a good reason to kill the sellsword thus causing a guaranteed kingmaker situation.
In fact. In your situation (he knows 100% who the sellsword is and thinks there is an alchemist and BD too) the safest think to do is no action and try to lynch the BD. Because that covers anything anyone could do.
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I literally defined the situation so that converting the Sellsword is the ONLY good choice, and is therefore “beneficial” as you put it. A key part of my definition of the scenario was “The Mastermind has good reason to believe the Possessor will kill the BD.” There is no WIFOM involved.
Your raise the possibility that the Sellsword might guard the BD preventing me from converting him. This is a silly objection if you already understand that my proof remains valid by assuming the Sellsword guards the Possessor or the Mastermind.
In fact. In your situation (he knows 100% who the sellsword is and thinks there is an alchemist and BD too) the safest think to do is no action and try to lynch the BD. Because that covers anything anyone could do.
It really isn’t important WHY the possessor kills the BD that night. It is only important that he actually do it and that the MM correctly predict this.
It is. Because with a better reason not to he won’t. In otherwords if you don’t include the reason to validate the prediction then it won’t be a correct one.
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