The great wall of Icibalus
Luxy:
/vote Sarun
Sarun (Scumlean): His defense of Celeste seems out of place, almost like they are a scumteam. I don’t see any reason to defend Celeste in this situation as it really is just a 1v1 between her and hippo, why would Sarun jump in saying ‘You can’t read her until Day 2 or 3, so don’t vig her.’ This just really seems like scum defending scum to me. Passively defending everyone like he doesn’t want any lynches or he wants a CFD onto a townie last minute. Deflecting all the pressure he is receiving. His reasoning for voting Hippo is flawed and just feels like OMGUS.
Now that we know that Celeste is an Innocent Child, this previously natural progression makes more sense for a wolf to post.
I think that this post seems to make a lot of presumptions about Celeste’s allingmnet which is a wolftell. What’s very interesting is that just 6 posts later, after Sam applies his vote as thus:
Sam17z:
/ vote Sarun as overseer I must side with bd.
Luxy says this.
Luxy:
I think if Sarun flips scum we FoS Marg, unless Sarun is whiteknighting as scum.
Notice that he already incorporates WIFOM into his assocation read so that if the lynches go Sarun -> Margaret he dosen’t get suspected. This is the first part of what I consider Luxy’s biggest wolftell- the fact that they seem to be hedging on every read other than Sarun.
I think that Luxy wouldn’t do this as town, he’d attempt to pursue every read with the same vigor as he does the Sarun read instead of hedging arounnd one most and being hyper-confident on one.
Luxy:
I genuinely think he is town, especially after what sarun has been doing.
Notice this as well, that every read of his is done based on proximity, whether mental, physical, emotional or just gut feeling to Sarun. I don’t think that this shows “Town who is confident about his vote”, I think this shows “Wolf who is attempting to get off a mislynch and then get ‘I told you so’ credit on every one of his other reads for free.”
Luxy:
Maxi I have a red check on you, how do you defend yourself?
Hoooonestly this reactiontest is pretty NAI and isn’t even a serious reactiontest in most people’s books.
lolreactiontests btw
you’d have to reach to make it AI.
Luxy:
I tried because at the moment I have a slight scumlean on Maxi. Due to his excessive amount of fluffposting at the start and his lack of town motivation.
Notice that he says that the reaction test was serious when everyone knows “I have a red check on you, claim now” is a joke reaction test. I think that this shows Luxy attempting to get credit for NOT being memey all the time.
Luxy:
Am I the only one feeling that psycho is town? I think this psycho wagon is scum driven. I don’t think a scum would make such bad play like psycho IMO.
Another thing to note is that this post is a massive shade-thorw on literally everyone who is on Psycho’s wagon. It dosen’t make sense for town!Luxy to post the middle sentence of this post imo.
Luxy:
The fact that Parfait, Boss and Insanity are all on this psycho wagon, 3 of my top scumreads right now makes me feel this is a mislynch and psycho just made a dumbass play and is VI.
Notice that he introduces his boss, Insanity and Parfait reads in an extremely non-natural way, in comparison to another wagon. It just dosen’t feel natural to me at all.
He then goes into a few posts arguing with Parfait. Parfait is a good enough wolf that I can’t say conclusively if this is WvW or TvT or TvW or what (but as I’m suer you’ve gathered I’m wolfreading Luxy)
I think that Luxy introduces their wolfreads in a very unnatural way a lot and I don’t think that the lack of progression is because we can’t see it.
Luxy:
I don’t think you’re lock-scum yet. But some of your posts are awfully suspicious.
Then comes the Livicus case. There’s nothing much I can say except that I think Luxy might be trying to move into a Livicus pocket with the final point. EXCEPT for the above, which is another example of Luxy hedging on their reads.
Luxy:
Arguing with Sarun, who is almost lock-scum to me. This may be an attempt at distancing though.
psychoneirik:
Notice now that he agrees with Psycho due to the comparison with Sarun, in fact all of his points on Psycho are about how he agrees with Luxy on Sarun.
Also, this post is another example of Luxy hedging on all their reads but one.
Next up, Orange votes Luxy for putting in too much effort in their reads:
Luxy:
These are my day 1 reads after reading about 1000 posts. Why would I not write down what I read?
Orange has a point here. It feels like Luxy could easily be reaching for towncred by putting so much effort into reads that will likely be proven 100% innacurate soon enough.
Luxy:
I get it, but I’m trying to get people’s reactions and defences. Also I post my reads so I die, people can see my thinking.
Is it just me or would Luxy not immediately point out that Sam is actually immediately telling him NOT TO WOLFREAD? This post feels like a super-unatural response to a wolfy post. Sorta like pocketing by not attacking.
Luxy:
He was trying to pocket celeste, they are obviously not scumbuddies.
Notice that he now flips his reasoning to be Sarun whiteknighting Celeste after Celeste reveals as IC. I’m feeling like town!luxy would instead say “I’m going to reevaluate my read on Sarun after that IC reveal” but instead he just bowls on with his tunnel.
And now comes the DIRECT interaction between our two main characters>
Luxy now pulls out what I consider to be the most suspicious thing they ever do; they accuse Sarun of gaslighting them. I think that we can’t find much AI in the actual posts of the argument (mostly) because of the fact that Luxy is GOOD at faking TvT and would appear the same as both allingments.
the wolfy thing from this is this post:
Luxy:
I just feel a Sarun lynch will reveal more. If Sarun flips scum, odds are psycho will as well due to the supposed bus. However, if Sarun somehow flips town then it clears psycho more because they couldn’t have planned that. Furthermore, a Sarun lynch clears hippo due to the arguments they were having etc.
This post is the only example of saying Sarun might be town and it isn’t good. Notice that the result of Sarun flipping wolf (which from his perspective is ALMOST CERTAIN) is that one of his strongest townrreads is wrong. Notice that the result of Sarun flipping town (the truth) is that one of his strongest townreads is affirmed as correct, according to him.
i think that this post shows not a desire to accept that they might be wrong but they are instead setting up for “I told you so” reads.
Luxy:
/vote psycho
I don’t like it, but it will help reveal Sarun’s alignment if psycho flips town. I just don’t see why scum would make that terrible hunter play but ok.
He now votes his own fricking townread after I start a push (which I now believe to be in error) on them.
He is CLEARLY fishing for “I told you they were town now can we lynch Sarun pls” credit here and it’s almost openwolfing how wolfy this post is.
Luxy:
Also I believe I may be suffering from confirmation bias as most of the things Sarun has said have just pinged scum more to me. I’ll re-evaluate Sarun in the morning.
Also, this is a totally unnatural point to reevaluate your read. At this point on the Sarun read progression town!luxy would just rush forward towards a mislynch without looking back, not reevaluate it. It just dosen’t make sense to me and comes at an awkward point imo.
AND YOU KNOW WHAT? I’M JUST GOING TO BOOKMARK THIS POST HERE:
Luxy:
Of course, i changed some things already. Also sarun seems more towny to me now.
AND CONTINUE THIS WALL LATER BECAUSE THIS IS ONLY HALFWAY THROUGH
With that titan of a wall said (and spoilered so you don’t have to read all of it if you don’t want to):
/vote Luxy
i’m only halfway through the ISO help
