Anyways here’s my reasoning for Cloned’s execution.
First, we need to identify all the minions that spawned during this game, which were the Spy, Witch and Assassin.
We know this due to many factors and information. I died to Witch day 1 so there is obviously a Witch. Two players died last night, none of which claimed Gambler (the only other source of KP that could happen), meaning there is an Assassin who killed last night and we know there is no Baron because if there were to be Baron, all 4 outsiders would exist but currently we see 0 Saint claims anywhere.
Now that we know Minions have to be Spy, Assassin and Witch, we begin with why Cloned is naturally suspicious. Cheese claims Mayor, which is a role that can naturally survive attacks. With Spy in the game, we know that Spy knows all of our claims immediately and would’ve most likely told all their scummates already. With this knowledge in hand, we must now discuss the Assassin kill that happened this night.
See the Assassin kill that happened this night is interesting. The two people that died, Wazza and Gorta both have… debateable roles that Assassin would kill. Wazza is well… claiming to be Preacher but is now evil investigator which is… like : | and Gorta claims Exorcist. Now Lil Monsta killing one of these theoretically makes sense and that doesn’t really matter too much since hosts are controlling them, however, the Assassin kill is interesting.
My question is… why does Assassin kill a Preacher/Evil Investigator? or Exorcist over the Mayor. Some may argue that it’s too dangerous to let Preacher or Exorcist to live since they can disable scum abilities, but the thing is, 2/3 of scum don’t really care if their abilities are disabled.
Assassin? Yeah they’re killing tonight so they’re about to lose their abilities.
Spy? Not a big loss if they lose their abilities since they already know most of the grimoire and the only thing they lose is the ability to know night actions, which can mostly be easily swindled out by just talking and asking.
Now Witch is the only one who loses something. Now losing KP is pretty bad admitally, but this KP isn’t really necessary for the most part most of the time for Witch.
Now at this point, I’m like sure no one has read this far into my wallpost, so I’m just gonna start talking about apples. Isn’t it interesting why apples are red? Like red on a tree with green leaves seems like a great way to attract insects and other hungry organisms to eat you no? Seems kinda counterproductive to me. Anyways I’m not a biologist so I’m just gonna resume back on topic.
Now I’ve discussed what Minions could lose from Preacher and Exorcist, which some could still argue is still something. However, we must remember the existence of Mayor. Now Preacher and Exorcist can at most, remove Witch’s ability and maybe prevent the nightkill, but that is only if the Exorcist correctly chooses the lil monsta’s babysitter, which will likely be given to a player most townread, so it’s gonna be hard for them.
Mayor on the other hand… can bounce attacks off to other players, possibly killing Minions (though unlikely) if the hosts are trolls and if there is no execution at F3, they can make town win. So they seem like an ideal Assassin target correct? Some sort of protection, big game winning effect, doesn’t require them to actively choose the correct minion to do something…
So how come Mayor wasn’t killed last night instead of the Exorcist and Preacher, who were much poorer choices for Assassin stab. Well there’s like 3 conclusions we can make.
Conclusion A, the one I believe is that Cloned isn’t Mayor.
Conclusion B, one or both of Wazza and Gorta are evil and thus not Exorcist/Preacher, but that doesn’t explain why Mayor wasn’t killed.
Conclusion C, they wanted to frame Cloned, but that’s unlikely since this way of thinking right now requires some thought and we all know town can’t think, not atleast on forum dot throneoflies dot com.
Anyways, that’s my thought process on why I think the chances of Cloned to be scum are sorta high. There’s probably a hole in my theory, which well… it would be nice if someone pointed it out or something. And uhh if the Assassin just randomly yolo’d their kill without thinking I will send missiles specifically targeting the precise locations of their house the Tuesday after this game ends, 1:00 EST central.
TLDR: Not killing the Mayor (Cloned) doesn’t make sense for Assassin, since that was their best option, therefore Cloned is scum.
