if we do happen to tie between us
then we hve exactly 50% chance of winning
…which I see approximately as good as our current chances
It is between Arete and Appel. I want to just say it’s Appel, but there is a tinfoil that says that it’s Arete who is making it seem like it’s Arete. Like Appel trying to keep the doors open and trying to soft defend Light at the EoD is scummy as hell, but I feel like them voting Light when Light voted Arete is kind of towny. My tinfoil includes stuff I mentioned before and that Arete was trying to frame Appel, but that’s just a tinfoil
Aka I think it’s likely just Appel, but this is something I am not 100% confident in
like
I am very very deep into my villager range and very far from my wolf range and I think both these facts are obvious
but clearly they are not obvious or we wouldn’t be having this conversation 
okay
are … there specific questions you want to ask me to help you evaluate for yourself whether it is true
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sure
the obvious thing is – I’m not, actually, good at acting villagery as scum, and mostly I don’t try to (the exception is NK because NK doesn’t have TMI and can literally just play as a villager). this one is kind of hard to explain because most people aren’t super familiar with the difference but if you read my posts it is clear that I don’t know who the wolves are and that’s not, actually, something I can fake. in particular, I have a hard time faking my thought process as scum, and especially faking any form of reevaluation.
when I play scum I really really hate to bus, I almost never do it (like, the rare times when I’ve attempted to bus are ‘I have a completely useless teammate who everyone thinks is a wolf and who has obvious meta tells’) and even then I rarely do it, like, in FoL 28 I vaguely tried to bus Italy but wound up reversing that and hard defending him even though he was literally the most blatant wolf in existence. I’d be especially unlikely to bus here – like, on D1, people were mostly townreading me and basically expecting me to die at night, bussing Wazza wouldn’t really help me were I scum (since people were already townreading me) and would raise more questions about why I didn’t die, as well as making the neut more likely to townside source 1 (was N2 convert) source 2 source 3 (was N3 convert) source 4
these also … aren’t the nightkills I make as scum basically ever. cloned’s been talking about how I could in theory be scum megabraining everyone but killing off all the people harddefending you and letting the people who’ve been tunnelling you since D1 live is not in fact mega-brain, that’s zero-brain. this one is harder to give meta examples of because most games on this site are PR-heavy in a way that ends up dominating the nightkills but as an example I would give Candlelight – Marshal was tunnelling me all of D1, I killed him N1, and everyone just ignored him. like, in this case I wouldn’t even have needed to ““implicate”” myself with a nightkill as cloned was top wagon on D1 until I pushed a CFD onto Wazza and, were I scum, I would have just … let him die
lastly, Light and I don’t actually make sense on a team together. like, if you re-read EoD1, I was trying to CFD Wazza while Light was trying his hardest to resist the Wazza elim. it makes no sense to have the more townread member of a wolfteam hard-bus the third member and the less townread member hard-defend the third member, like, there is no world in which that is a remotely good plan. the way Light and I treated each other on D4 also doesn’t make sense for partners, like, I think a lot of people are getting caught up on the fact that Light was defending me, but were we W/W there would be no reason to have one of us bus the other and the other one harddefend them.
to touch briefly on the main reasons people have for suspecting me, as far as I can tell:
‘you’ve been wrong a lot/you pushed villagers/you defended wolves’
yes, I have. my reads are in fact not perfect! in the champs finale, I harddefended literally every wolf. pointing out the fact that I have in fact been wrong is … not really evidence of anything without looking at why I was wrong (which, in this case, was because I don’t know who the wolves are )
‘why aren’t you dead yet?’
a couple reasons, probably. the first is that people (especially cloned, but not just him) have been tinfoiling me since D1, and so wolves probably thought they could get me misexe’d.
the second is that besides Wazza my early game reads weren’t great! like, I lightly TR’d Light, Gorta, and Eli on D1, and more strongly townread cloned. Regardless of who the last wolf is I was not a threat to them once Wazza was dead.
‘maybe you were bussing, how did you just CFD a wolf like that??’
I wanted to save one of my townreads (cloned) so I picked a player who was pinging me and who other people mostly seemed to agree with my suspicion of them (meaning the CFD might actually work).
‘Wazza and Light defended you’
yes, they did. it turns out that sometimes wolves call villagers town! (but more seriously – even when I was the top wagon vote-total-wise at EoD4, Light showed literally no concern that my flip might make him look bad. you can compare that with how he treated Wazza, who he completely avoided calling town even when he was trying to push away from him)
‘you’ve been strawmanning my arguments against you’
your arguments mostly suck and I’m not patient enough to pretend they don’t. I’m sorry if you felt I was strawmanning you but like, I’m sorry because I don’t want to hurt people’s feelings, not because I think their arguments were deserving of me … acting like I thought they’re good when they aren’t, or something. in this post in particular I tried to be minimally strawmanny so if you have some concern that I didn’t address feel free to ask me about it.
Gorta’s response here is pretty good actually, the thought process here gives a genuine feel. So you’re saying that the way you would take Cloned’s pushing into consideration is to kill him and frame Arete for it, instead of keeping him alive.
This was my starting point, I thought I made it clear there. Right now I’d say Arete is the wolf because some of the things they’ve done seem like a direct attempt to make me look worse – like immediately saying the nightkill makes the most sense from me BEFORE they even analyzed it, and using arguments that are based on assumptions (such as the argument that I must’ve killed Leafia right after subbing in.)