16-2 confirmed neuts and-2 confirmed evils - 1/2 for BD neut thingies, then minus 2 for prince and king
So 9 and 1/2
That would make it so 1/2 the time we get two of everything and 1/2 one of themselves missing.
Honestly this part of the randomness I do enjoy cause the wacky spawns of three of a class is a lot of fun imo. It makes the setup a tiny bit less balanced but fun or balance at this point
Are you sure that you understand the math behind that 
I can try to explain the math, later.
From Giffyglyphsâ Monster Maker:
https://i.imgur.com/HLVII9C.png
Here it teaches you how to convert fixed damage to random damage. You can see that both 4d4, 3d6, 2d10 and 1d20 have similar means. In question of balance, all those die are equal. The average damage is the same.
However, the common range shows up a different perspective. You can expect to hit 7-13 on a 4d4, 7-14 on a 3d6, 6-16 on a 2d10 and 4-17 at a 1d20. All those 70% of the time (I guess he calculated the common range on 70% of the time taking the 1d20 as a base since every roll in a d20 equals to 5%).
The difference from 7 to 13 is 4. The difference from 4 to 17 is 13.
Here is the thing with exaggerated randomness. It isnât predictable. Most of the time it doesnât matter how your character is positioned or if your enemies have high ground if you use the 1d20 weapon.
This die doensât reward you for thinking strategically, because none of your plans will probably carry out anyway due to how chaotic the die is. It matters the most how much luck you have to roll more numbers between 10 to 17 than numbers betwen 4 and 9 for damage.
But you have an average output at the 4d4 thatâs easily predictable. You know that you will consistently do something betwen 7 and 13 70% of the time. Luck wonât come to save you as a miracle here. The weapon depends primarily on how you use it. The combat scene starts to matter because you can plan things ahead.
Usually, in FM, people like to depend on their understanding of the game more than on their luck.
Thatâs the problem with swingness. No one wants to join games on which half are insta BD win because of classes rolled and half are insta scum win, even if those two halves average at 50% winrates. People want to join games on which that even if the rolled classes give one side or other a small advantage, the final result depends on how much effort they put in the game.
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Unfortunately you canât have randomness without swingness, but you try to contain the swingness. Swingness is only a necessary evil you pay to randomness so you wonât have an auto-massclaim solving crap or eternal montainous every time you play mafia.
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Exactly this.
Thatâs why I love the backswing which is added by the conversion system, and thatâs why for me the swing problem is less caused by âtoo many PRsâ (whatever this means in a PR-based game), but the problem is that games are ending in FoL too fast because their outcome is too determined too fast.
So do you think games are ending early because we are using a strange meta in FoLâŚ
using risky strats instead of safe strats?
Like doing early massclaims. Thatâs risky. High risk, high reward.
No, I think they end early because there are too many PRs.
Outsiderâs perspective btw, I only play SFoLs but never FoLs.
And I only play SFoLs because I like the concepts. Otherwise they are simply too complicated for being semi-open.
we are lynching early because it is much more important thing in FoL than in ToL since in ToL you can rely on mechanical confirmability more so you dont have to lynch every day. Also time most dont want to conclude 72 hours long day in no lynch
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Whatâs wrong with my math? Theres 6 guaranteed spawns as it is. And with then ten remaining 9 of them are always bd, with the tenth slot fluctuating between BD and neut. So half the games if we were to use your system we would have 2 of every category. And half the games we would have 2 of everyone but theres one group with only one. Since a neut spawned. Explain to me the math
Thatâs not how sheâs saying we should do things, sheâs saying that for any given spot you Forest randomly choose which category it falls into (but independently of each other), then which class it is in that category.
Basically, this lets you add e.g. more killers without changing class ratios such that half of what you roll on average is killers.
Just got defensive cause I like math. and u can tell my reading skills are phenomenal
