No, it’ll just change the meta to exe King day 2 to get a guaranteed good King up on day 3. And then it’ll go back to whisper the King.
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66/33 is still higher than what you can get from a D3 RB unless its prince. And if it is prince then you loose a prince and I don’t need to explain why that is a bad idea.
If the Prince doesn’t reveal, they can get randomly killed night one.
And that’s super swingy, since it’s probably 2 to 3 times stronger than a normal Blue Dragon.
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Good for him? That’s a separate issue that requires a completely different set of solutions.
I’d say its tricky to do without overcompensating. Especially when you realize that his swing is good for the game whenever he doesn’t die before N3. (but bad when he does). Mostly because of the dynamic he has with scum which has everything to do with his massive power.
I think it would be a good start if he didnt prevent visitors.
He would still be a Super Butler, Psychic, with a 3 use Super Cold Steel
Prevention actually made him LESS BD sided. Cuz now you can’t invest a jailed target.
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That is unlikely to be the case - if the unseen/cult manage to hit a royal convert (6/16 at best) then it’s more favorable statistically to exe the starting King.
Actually it’s 6/13.
Unseen aren’t trying to convert king or each other.
And in a cult game or a game where Unseen optimally accuse its a 71% chance of a converted Royal if 6 royals. That’s a 5% increase from a starting king.
No trial favors BD in that case, as it prevents the unseen from getting royals executed.
And that’s ignoring failed converts and failed kills. And again, loss of order exe is worth it not being used against you.
Unseen would be more likely to kill or convert the royals at night. A failed convert makes the probability closer to 55% and a failed kill is irrelevant because I assumed no kills anyway.
If you DO count kills then remember that the odds of all the royals being killed is not that low in games with less royals. And the odds of them being converted is high in games with more of them
Imo this provides variety. I find the Prince to be a big deal, his being alive or dead necessitates a changing strategy.
So I did the math - the odds of converting a royal are highest with more royals, but that also lowers the odds of them being elected.
You basically have a 90% chance of electing a non-evil King if no royals have died (if you pick at complete random). The most favorable, non-obvious scenario for the unseen (i.e. the only royal choice is converted) is still a 70% chance of a good King.
Also, fun fact: the MM only has a ~62% chance of getting a N1 convert under reasonably favorable (1 neutral, 1nk) conditions and assuming nothing about the actions of the other players.
EDIT: I’ll post math when I get home.
EDIT2: MATH
Probabilities
Assumptions
- Prince jails someone at random every night
- Assassin has no successful kills
- Nobody else does anything that removes royals or stops conversion
- There is only 1 neutral aside from the NK.
- The Prince does not count as a royal for purposes of this discussion, as him stepping up is worse than having an evil king.
- All living Royals step up for Royal Blood
- The person selected for king is random from available candidates
- Both the MM and the Prince choose their target at random.
So, MM has 13 possible conversion targets (can’t convert himself, the king or his assassin). However, there are 3 targets that he cannot convert - Prince, the NK and Neutral A. Additionally, the since the prince is jailing someone there is a 1/14 chance that he can’t do any conversions - if he’s not jailed then that’s an extra person* that he can’t convert.
*If the assassin is jailed then it technically can be 3/13 but the difference between 4/13 and 4/13 * 13/14 is minor. I also didn’t account for the fact that no sane MM would choose the same target twice but that doesn’t change the odds of success too much.
P(Fail) = (1/14) + (4/13) = ~37.9%
The MM only needs to succeed once. So the odds of him NOT succeeding at all by D3 are P(Fail)*P(Fail) or ~14.4%. This means that the odds of there being ANY successful conversion given the above is 1-P(Fail)^2 or ~85.6%
So now that we have his odds of success, let’s figure out what his odds of picking out a royal. There are between 0 and 6 non-Prince royals in any game and there are 9 possible conversion targets after we’ve taken out the nonconvertible ones.
Let r = # of royals in the game
P(Conversion Target is Royal | Conversion success) = r / 9
meaning (approximately)
P(Conversion Target is Royal AND Conversion success) = (r / 9) * 0.856
Let’s look at this for each value of r:
- 1/9 * 0.856 = ~9.5%
- 2/9 * 0.856 = ~19%.
- 3/9 * 0.856 = ~28%
- 4/9 * 0.856 = ~38%
- 5/9 * 0.856 = ~48%
- 6/9 * 0.856 = ~57%
However, because we select the king at random that means that the chances of any given candidate getting chosen are 1/r. Meaning that effectively, the odds of the king that stepped up during royal blood being evil is the same regardless of how many royals there actually are in the game under these assumptions. Which is, to say:
P(Royal Blood King is Evil | Assumptions Above) = 1 / 9 * 0.856 = ~9.5%
Ironically, even if we assume a 100% success rate in conversions you still cap out at ~11% chance of the king being evil. When Royals start dying then things get a bit more complicated but it still ends up being better than 66% in most scenarios. I haven’t done the math, but I imagine assigning a priority system to the various classes would just make it worse for the Unseen.
