Well actually if Livi is true that makes it 1/15
And if there is not a MM in the setup you’re looking at around 1/30
The odds are so damn low it is fearmongering
And even if so lynching scum is not antitown
I have been over this many times and repeating bad logic doesn’t make it true.
King and livi if true
1/13
So times two for the other setup
That is 1/26
I don’t not lynch scum on a less than 10% chance
Even if I agreed with your MM lynch bad which I don’t
The only way I move off Wolfy is if someone convinced me Wolfy is town
Lynching scum IS anti-town when it ultimately hurts town. Lynching a Fool for instance is not beneficial to town.
It’s not 25/26 they are Assassin/CL/Starting Cult/NK though. You’re making a false comparison.
The only good scum candidates to lynch would be CL/seeker which is roughly the same odds given that Seeker is 1/4th chance to roll.
Then in that case you kill the fool.
However a fool does not play like Wolfy here
But lynching MM if Wolfy is MM is not bad.
I do not see your argument and spamming it is not helpful I am not moving off Wolfy until and unless someone gives a case they are town
The odds of being a mastermind for any player right now are abysmal
Actually no
You have to take all of the scum spec/invests lump them in a pile and divide by setup and then distribute at beginning of day.
For fucks sake stop messing up combinatorics to try to get me to your bad point. It won’t work
Omg Math is tunneling scum. They can’t be town.
They disagree with my bullshit. They can’t be town.
I don’t give a shit about what is “established”. People have bad “established” things all the time. You keep trying to not lynch obvious scum and it pisses me off.
Call me neutral incorrectly all the fuck you want. I am still gonna do my damn job which is eliminate scum.
And I sure as hell don’t back off of scum because of microscopic (hyperbole) odds based on imho bad setup reasons
Wolfy needs to be town if they don’t want to be lynched.
Shrug, I’m done trying to defend Wolfy here. I’ll see you after the game if he flips MM. /vote Wolfy
Vote Count
| Accused | Accusers | Number of Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Wolfy | MathBlade, Luxy, thiccbal, Firekitten, Judekat, overthebin, Solic | 7/8 |
| Solic | bazingaboy | 1/8 |
| Redrabbit | overthebin | 1/8 |
| overthebin | Captain  , |
2/8 |
| WhatUpB | omfgcookies | 1/8 |
We have nineteen hrs left… Let’s try and get some inactives in here and pick a target this evening.
Math is tunnelling so hard. Can you accept the fact that getting other unseen out would better? Can’t you accept the fact that spec/invest results increase chance of Wolfy being MM?
We could be looking for other scum and fall back to Wolfy if needed. We could check out Wolfys claim to get more info on the two linked players.
And btw a one kill N1 is common in ToL. Either unseen/slow NK/someone prevented, or cult conversion night with fast nk.
No. I don’t accept doing an inferior play simply because I am begged.
We don’t know if unseen is in this game (unless you agree with me that it’s possible Wolfy handmaiden slipped)
I don’t accept things that are logically impossible
The analogy that Wolfy is more likely MM can be rewritten as such. (Different odds but the idea applies)
Deal 25 pens in front of you 5 of each color.
Say we don’t want to take a red pen.
We have information that the sixth pen is a ballpoint pen.
And we know ballpoints are sometimes red sometimes not at a given rate.
Then people are saying that not to take the ballpoint because it could be red. That doesn’t fucking connect.
Inferior play? The whole reason no one is active is because you are tunnelling Wolfy so hard. Why would a new player want to interact and risk being lynched if you provide them a sure thing.
And you’re way down playing the odds based on the total number of players. You’re convinced Wolfy is scum. If it’s an unseen game the spec/invest check makes it almost 50% chance depending on converts. Even if Wolfy is cult we can occupy him and do more hunting today.
And there’s nothing saying we can’t still lynch Wolfy by EoD.
https://www.math.hmc.edu/funfacts/ffiles/20002.6.shtm
This is the fallacy people are committing
Say there are three doors
One is MM one is spec/invis BD and one is not spec/invis
You take the one behind door one and the host then says you have a spec/invis
You then know the not spec/invis is behind one of the other two doors but it doesn’t actually increase your odds of MM
It’s still 1/3rd in this case.
Patently false. They are inactive for a plethora of reasons. I engaged people to try to get their thoughts. Tunneling does not as not decreased activity. This is quite possibly one of the slowest day ones I have ever been apart of. People aren’t posting for a plethora of reasons
This is more shit to try to get me off Wolfy that isn’t Wolfy is town because …
What do you lose by hunting more now? Nobody is going to if you won’t start. And you can be damn sure we’re going to be watching how Wolfy assists with that.
He’s at L-1 we risk losing the chance to hunt further at all. We could identify scummy targets to block/invest at night.
