Rwby fm - wolves win! at least it wasnt a ******* scumstomp

Here’s what you can do. You vote me, you get a wolf in 1/2 worlds. You vote eli, you get a wolf in 2/2 worlds

I dont think I’ll have a problem pushing Marshal at f3 with vul

hm

was going to go analyze Marshal/Atlas and found this from Marshal about Eli

@Atlas

Can you explain why you made this post

It was a joke and a pathetic attempt to make mafia think I’m doc

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Marshal/Atlas

Atlas → Marshal

922 could technically be a rule of three but that’s a really weak point. Switches to a townlean later on (around EoD1/SoD2), could go either way on that. Then switches back to a scumlean/read around when I replaced in but didn’t super push it. A couple of his posts around the ‘I knew you were doc’ part of the thread seem kind of unaligned? Once Marshal and Eli vote him he obviously starts tunneling on that world but he kind of has to.

Marshal → Atlas

Marshal starts out calling Atlas ‘obviously V’ (P#464) and defending him from the (admittedly kind of :joy_cat: ) accusations that he had scumslipped. Frankly I think that strength of read is pretty much entirely unwarranted, having reread Atlas’s Iso up to that point. P#542/P#757 kind of feel like she’s coaching Atlas in the game thread? which continues throughout her early Iso. By mid-d2 she seems to have forgotten the read (’ tf does someone like derps or atlas have going for them’) – I’m unsure if Marshal would list two teammates there. She eventually shoves Atlas into the PoE but continues lowkey shielding him. Looots of interactions in her midgame Iso that feel like they could go either way. In P#5944 she had Atlas as villagerier than Eli and I’m not totally sure when that changed. P#6463 is where she first starts pushing the ‘Atlas/Eli W/W’ angle. P#6594 she still has Eli as wolfier than Atlas?? P#6815 is the first time she reverses that and I’m not totally clear on why. P#6886 does seem to suggest that she expects Vul to vote Eli (which would point against Marshal voting Atlas in a W/W world). She spends a lot of time trying to tie my slot to Atlas’s which is maybe more likely to be partnery? P#7084 is where she first explains why she votes Atlas over Eli. not sure how persuasive I find the reasoning. meh. kind of not sure if she writes up such an elaborate ‘sorry if wrong’ post (P#7157) if W/W with Atlas? as opposed to just taking the ‘Atlas is a WOLF let’s KILL him’ angle (assuming her plan is to bus and win in F3, or WifoM people into voting Eli). and then after that she votes him and tunnels him, which makes sense regardless of their alignments.

idk

does Marissa vote Atlas in a W/W world? I’m not sure. I think if she did it was a misplay but she did say later in her Iso that she expected Vul to vote Atlas, so maybe it wasn’t a lot of a misplay, just a minor error about what people would do.

hi Vul

I’m gonna have to head to bed soon, not sure if I’ll be around for EOD

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@Atlas

Before you go to sleep: I was wondering why you mentioned me and Vul in this post, but not Marshal?

This has been a game of forum mafia.

I wanted to point out that Atlas / Eli barely have any interactions until right now, when they have to interact. I’m not sure if it’s partnery or not, but.

I think Atlas had a read on Eli day 1, but Eli didn’t have one on Atlas and never developed one? Something like that.

Please don’t quote vote posts, for a moment I panicked and thought you voted as soon as I showed up.

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Because it was mostly you who wanted us to crossvote, and vul I figured was town

And I dont tell wolves 

new strategy, quote vote posts to make wolves think I hammered and see if they’re like ‘yeah gg arete’

(this is a joke)

I wish both sides here gave the same amount of effort, but Eli seems unable to do anything while Atlas has been doing stuff. I don’t understand why Marshal thinks Eli is still villagery.

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Marshals wolf, I’ve been saying this

The fact stands that Marshal’s entire day 1 is super pro-wolf and especially if Eli is mafia. We couldn’t have known this at the time, so she could’ve got away with it.

Not gonna lie, every time I called Marshal a villager it was mostly on tonal notes and sometimes on thought process, which seems a bit pepega.

Vul/Atlas

Atlas → Vul

Atlas doesn’t mention Vul in a substantive way until day 4, when he drops a townlean/read on him for pushing him for inactivity (P#5494).

Votes Vul in response to my case in P#5828. Looking at the votecount Derps was in fact top wagon at that point, I think if Atlas were inclined towards bussing they would be way more likely to just bus Derps rather than hopping on Vul (in W/W worlds). Eventually turns around on Vul, most relevantly in P#6850 where he writes an extended Iso on why he’s town. I kiiiind of don’t think a newbie wolf would typically defend their partner to that extent. Post-crossvote Vul would have been ~confirmed town to him if town so I don’t think his comments at that point are super AI.

Vul → Atlas

Vul basically doesn’t interact with Atlas on D1, on D2 he puts him into her PoE post-Marl being outed. In P#2831 he gives him a townread and then immediately walks it back in a way that doesn’t really seem partnery – like he didn’t have a read in mind that she was going for, but was instead getting to his reads naturally. Reading further, he flipflops a lot on Atlas’s slot. In my experience I think Vul would be less likely to change his mind that often on a partner as W (he can obviously change his mind but that level of flipflopping usually isn’t what he goes for). When I vaguely shaded Atlas for thinking he should be scumread Vul went out of his way to shield him. Him going out of his way to portray me as not W/W with Atlas in P#5629 is potentially a good look since I think my slot was one of the miselims scum was planning to use to win. In P#5738 he presents a preferred yeet order of Derps → Atlas → Blizer → Arete. I think he probably wouldn’t put both of his scum partners first, low confidence. Reading further his progression on Atlas is very understandable. In P#6544 (day 6), he said he thought Atlas and Eli should cross but that Atlas had higher scum equity. honestly it’s mildly amusing that both the non-Eli/Atlas people had one that they said repeatedly had higher scum equity and then voted the other one, even if it doesn’t make it any easier to solve the game.

overall I think that Vul and Atlas are, like, probably not teamed

but it’s not something I would lock in

if this goes to F3 you should do your own independent analysis

I have decided that analyzing Eli/Atlas interactions to make it easier to decide tomorrow who to vote is less valuable than doing things that will help me vote right today