Rwby fm - wolves win! at least it wasnt a ******* scumstomp

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#6984

Continuing to lean away from the initial v/w declaration. Feels like “okay, I don’t actually want to bus. Now, how do I walk away from the path that leads me to bussing, always? I also like Marl and I don’t want to bus him.” That last part is creative freedom.

At this point during day 1, this is actually a true statement.

These are his only notable comments sprinkled here and there, he’s mostly been quiet.

Chloe/Marshal not W/W :>

Lots of dancing around the idea that Chloe may be a wolf, not much dancing around the idea Marl may be a wolf.

What about Marl?

Eli continues to contribute meaningless comments. With Marl in the thunderdome this is a tough situation for the wolves. Marshal feels like she’s dancing around it and Eli feels like he’s pushing the “this thunderdome is dumb” line because he can’t come up with anything else. Idk if that in particular is wolfy, but.

V/W thunderdome between Marl/Chloe and commenting on it doesn’t even cross Atlas’s mind, instead they’re doubling down on a prior scumread.

Villagery. Doesn’t look like deflecting from the thunderdome, more like genuinely not caring.

Fluff.

What even is this post.
Noting that Mafia Neapolitan hasn’t flipped yet.
Marshal.
Marshal.
Are you a gamer.

What. About. Marl? Even Chloe talked about Marl, and Marshal just… stops doing that.

Fluff and fluff.

Eli’s only alignment read at this point is sheeping lol on min town and not liking PKR’s AtE (but saying he doesn’t scumread PKR). What was that about him being incapable of making reads as mafia again? This is 1200 posts in.

LMAO.

…Villagery…?

Pointing out again that Marshal had an excellent evaluation of the Marl vs Chloe thunderdome, and then spent like 50 posts walking away from it and calling Marl a villager, while dancing around a Chloe wolfread. While she townreads Marl, she also brings up the possibility of it being V/V after all.

Marl would rather bus than continue the thunderdome.

HE’S RIGHT! HE IS 100% RIGHT!
Sorry.

Should’ve tunneled min.

I… feel like a wolf is more likely to take the claim for granted, considering the entire village was already doing it? It’s possible lol is trying to make the wolves not shoot Mistyx, but that would be villagery as well. There’s also the “lol is trying to convince the doctor not to protect Mistyx because Mistyx isn’t an actual PR” or something, but the doctor is even night, so that doesn’t work.

Lol having this random discussion feels villagery but it’s probably not AI.

Actually finds an example.
Now that’s >rand V imo. Maybe?

#6985

Votecount

Voted Voter Votes
Cowards
Vote
Do it
Free me
Not Voting EliThePsycho, Vulgard, Marshal, Arete, Atlas 5

(this is a joke btw)
(im just vibing)

#6986

Marshal slowly trending down, because after an excellent read on the Marl/Chloe situation she spends every other post afterward trying to dissolve the situation and townread the domed wolf.

Meanwhile, lol wrote several posts I interpret as villagery.

Also, I notably didn’t really notice that Marshal was PR reading Arctic when reading the whole thread. I don’t think that’s AI for anyone, I would just like to point that out. It didn’t feel like Marshal was townreading Arctic because she had a PR read on him, not at all.

#6987

And I am considering the “leveled herself out of it” option, but it still looks super convenient. After an initial 100% correct declaration, she makes the most pro-wolf progression she could possibly have made, and spends a lot of time on doing it.

#6988

The neapolitan post also strikes me as Marshal being a gamer wolf, because I don’t understand how this thought could possibly enter her mind if she were town. I know she is meming on Chloe’s posts about what the town PRs should do, but Chloe didn’t bring up the wolf roles, obviously. Marshal mentioning a wolf role by itself is NAI, but she specifically mentions a wolf role that hasn’t flipped until today. Genuinely thinking she might’ve outright claimed Mafia Neapolitan there with this added context.

#6989

me: ‘should I go to sleep, so that I can do my actual job that I get paid to do tomorrow?’
me: ‘no, instead I’m going to summarize my thoughts on all the possible pairings in the game’

Marshal/Eli
Marshal/Atlas
Marshal/Vul
Vul/Atlas
Vul/Eli
Eli/Atlas

Marshal/Eli

Eli’s early Iso has basically nothing substantive with regards to Marshal – he mentions her a few times but never in a super meaningful way. I guess P#3009 is arguably sort of unpartnery if you squint? P#4879 is his first read on Marshal, which is “V lol,” when I asked him to explain several of his reads he responded (albeit not necessarily with an explanation) to all of them except his read on Marshal where he completely ignored my request for an explanation (frankly I find that confusing regardless of his alignment). He reiterates the V-read in P#5330, claiming he’ll explain it (I don’t think he ever does). I think P#6248 (where he openly says he’s sheeping Vul/Marshal) is mildly unpartnery with both of them. He has a couple more interactions with Marshal that are substantive but don’t really pull me either way, in the solidly-WifoM-if-Mafia camp. I kind of think him saying we shouldn’t sleep because Marshal will just die (P#6481, P#6488) is also unpartnery? I don’t think that’s really the sort of thing he would want to draw attention to as wolf with Marshal.

Overall there isn’t anything from Eli that makes me think he and Marshal are 100 percent not partnered but there are a couple things that make me think it’s less likely.

Marshal starts out by calling Eli 95 percent villager in P#179. I checked Eli’s Iso and he had at least done something by that point so it’s not a completely absurd conclusion to come to. P#264 feels mildly unpartnery, P#276 kind of feels like Marshal is pocketing Eli which seems weird for W/W? P#890 reiterates that Eli is near-lock-V - if they’re W/W they’re going for a haaard powerwolfing strategy which admittedly is not remotely out of Marshal’s range. I hate how searching Marshal’s posts for ‘Eli’ brings up a ton of things that are about ‘feelings’ or ‘aelin’ or whatever. She continues harddefending Eli throughout day 1, telling people to vote her over Eli. I actually think P#1790 (where she hard advocates for Derps to be shot over Eli if it’s between the two of them) is really unlikely to be W/W with Eli and Derps, it sets her up to look great if Derps gets shot and horrible if Eli gets shot and Eli isn’t, like, a much more valuable scum partner such that this would actually make sense. In P#3238 she does an Iso on him and concludes that he’s >>rand V if PKR V, lock V if PKR W (since PKR was V the second half isn’t super relevant). I feel like the random unprompted Iso is also pretty unpartnery. In P#4755 she claims she forgot Eli was in the game which is pretty bizarre regardless of their mutal alignments given how hard she was defending him. In P#5043 she starts dropping Eli in her reads for not doing much after day 1. She continues to drop Eli in P#5634 and also tries to tie him to Blizer/Derps, I think the tie to Derps is pretty non-W/W. As of yesterday she calls him the “likeliest living player to be Mafia” – P#6592. This is obviously pending votes but I don’t think Marshal goes for a hardbus in My/LyLo with 2 wolves left including her unless she’s very very confident she can win in F3. Her trying to tie me to Eli as a wolf partner is pretty weh, maybe more weh if Eli is a wolf, but I don’t think it necessarily means he has to be wolf if she is?

I think overall there are a fair number of points in her Iso that realistically could go either way but a couple points that I think she plays differently if she’s W/W with Eli – I think her treatment of the vig shot at EoD1 is one of the most obvious ones.

okay I changed my mind it’s 4:20 AM I’m going to sleep

#6990

@Vulgard

would appreciate you reading this post since Marshal/Eli is your current world

I think there are a few things in Marshal’s Iso that point reasonably strongly to ‘not that’

#6991

@Marshal

I haven’t forgotten about your thought process question I just keep shoving it to the nebulous location of ‘I’ll do it tomorrow’

#6992

Now accepts the claim.

That part is not AI. Initially denying it and thinking Mistyx is lying is kinda villagery fmpov.

Not a very nuanced take on Marshal, but that’s also the impression I get from that post (and other parts of her overall handling of Chloe). So…

Kinda weird how Derps instantly jumps to Marshal’s defense.

Marl is also mafia, so this is a correct take.

This is an incorrect take.

I’m… not actually sure whether lol means “theatre” as in “wolf” at this point considering lol then calls Appel wolf outright and votes her, but doesn’t vote Marshal or Marl.

Lmao. This is about Derps.

This is dumb, but. At this point, I’m fairly convinced Atlas is a villager, which means there are 2 wolves in lol/Marshal/Eli.

If lol is with Marshal/Eli, doesn’t he think to at least slide one partner in there? Or try?

Very good PKR read in hindsight, actually.

Noting that lol has townread two players we’ve misyeeted. Maybe we should’ve listened to him.

Wazza’s top scumread is Eli. Wazza is the n1 kill.

There’s no guaranteed connection, but it’s notable.

Yeah.

Also townreads Atlas and I think Atlas is also town.

I really don’t think it’s W/W, but can’t explain it well.

I think this is super villagery. You could argue “lol is trying to make BlueLance look bad/partnered if lol does flip here,” but, 1. it could still be interpreted by us as whiteknighting later down the line, rendering the move useless, and 2. pepega.

Derps sheeping lol’s read here right away.

Lol’s reads get sheeped by flipped wolves a lot. A lot. A lot. A lot. A lot.

I don’t think this is consistent with “wolves were bussing each other, so lolslot is mafia.”

More sheeping of lol’s defense of BlueLance.

Lol’s towncore is 100% pure if Atlas is town.
Why does wolf!lol townside so hard? Dude townreads 6/6 people correctly if Atlas is town and pushes people to sheep that.

Randomly adds a wolf. This part doesn’t look great, but I guess he had to be wrong at some point? I’m not sure if this is a joke or not.

Hmm.

This part where lol calls CRich town but doesn’t take a hardline stance defending him doesn’t look great for lol, admittedly.

Continues refusing to take actual stances on conflicts in the thread.

This doesn’t count because it’s his first actual independent scumread. First and only iirc, for a very long time.

Very level 0 reasoning, not really AI, though.

And… that’s it. That’s the entire reasoning.
What?

About Eli. Previously says he has no thoughts, now says this.
It’s ~fine. And I kinda agree in hindsight.

I can’t track the progression here at all. Arctic townread wasn’t mentioned before iirc. The statement on me isn’t a read. The CRich scumread was accompanied by level 0 oneliner reasoning in a previous post. No read on Appel. Doesn’t remember if he scumread Wazza or not. Lol scumread feels super static, considering lol has posted a lot more since Eli last called him scum, and Eli showed no interest in further evaluating lol’s alignment.

I’m not sure if any of this is AI.

…Villagery? Lol is top wagon and says this.
Probably NAI.

Lmao.

Interesting exchange in hindsight.

Wazza is definitely the biggest Eli pusher and also the n1 kill.
PR hunt is a possible reason, but I don’t want to ignore this.

Outright gives herself an out not to question Marl about his Derps read because “Marl doesn’t listen to logic.”

What? I think I missed it when I previously read Marshal’s posts. This looks awful in hindsight.

Looks super pro-wolf. Not very AI by itself, but.
I didn’t remember Marshal having Marl this insanely high on day 1.

Naked wolf vote on a villager, part 1.

Naked wolf vote on a villager, part two? I know he did at least voice a scumread there before, but eh.

Noting how at some point the CRich wagon is pushed over the pure Eli wagon by wolfy people.

Not damning, but a thing.

#6993

The problem is this: I think Atlas is town, I’m leaning toward you being town, and Marshal/Eli are literally the only people left.

If you townread me now, then it’s any combination of Marshal/Eli/Atlas to you. Can you engage with my points on Atlas once you’ve woken up? Because if you think I’m a villager, and if you think Atlas is a villager, then you have to think Marshal/Eli is the pair.

#6994

I already know who I’m going to vote.

#6995

To me, its either eli/Marshal or eli/arete

#6996

So it would make sense to vote the person in both of those worlds

#6997

sure

4:40 AM brain says ‘Atlas fits with everyone alive’ but the part of my brain that knows why I shouldn’t make decisions at 4:40 AM says ‘that’s probably not actually true, we just think that because we’re haven’t checked’

#6998

goodnight

#6999

Valid, same reason I ain’t voting yet

#7000

I agree that Marshal would need to be powerwolfing hard if Eli and Marl are her partners and she’s doing this kind of stuff at EoD1.

I’m not sure if that means she isn’t mafia.

Wazza consistently scumreads Eli and wants people to vote Eli throughout EoD and a sizable part of the day. Wazza dies N1.

If the kill was done to frame Eli, I’d imagine there’d be more Eli pushes. But there haven’t been any, at least not any notable ones.

PR hunt is an option, I guess, but.

I don’t think this post looks that terrible in context? It reads like confidence in a CRich townread.

Also votes Derps here, who is mafia. Votes away from the ez CRich wagon.

Marshal’s EoD legacy is townreading two town PRs, one wolf, and possibly another wolf.

True, if she’s mafia, she’d be hard powerwolfing. She’s the top poster. But still.

Votes another potential wolf.

You could argue it’s theater, my gut response is that I don’t see a point of flip-flopping between two people here. Especially since lol puts his vote back on a wolf, even if Eli is V. Distancing, I guess, but. My thoughts about this are jumbled.

Mrrrh.

Derps wrote this as a wolf.
Asking to be shot is pure WIFOM and I’m not going to read into that much.

Wazza had an insanely towny EoD, and if Eli’s a wolf she played an excellent VT game. She played a good game either way, imo.

Eli’s defense of his slot is… eh. I don’t think it’s AI in either direction.

This post, click the arrow in the quote box to see it.

Kinda surprised wolves didn’t think PKR was a PR considering this post.

Nervous energy?

I wish she did that.

@Arete I’m not sure why “Marshal wants to bus Derps and run to endgame with her other partners, because she thinks her other partners are more defensible, and she doesn’t want to solo wolf as someone who gets tinfoiled a fair bit” isn’t a viable world to you.

Also, she can claim “she was super wrong but that doesn’t make her a wolf,” which is true on principle. I’m not saying that’s 100% the case, just saying.

This is kind of an unpartnery response to Marshal’s Eli whiteknight, though? That part I could see not being W/W.

What. Eli’s scumread on PKR was forgotten about, but now it’s suddenly relevant when Mistyx wants to shoot in Eli/Derps? In other words, between a wolf and himself?

Kinda yikes in hindsight.

More reasons to kill Wazza N1?

Derps openly declares he’s going to be a bus target.
Not really, but you know what I mean. Mindset thing.

He had just said he was townreading Marshal, but now he’s back to thinking this.
Idk if it’s theater or flip-floppy town, honestly. Players like these can be hard to read.

Derps continues to be okay with being bussed. Mindset thing.

Still thinking Atlas V.

Doesn’t want PKR shot, correctly…

Also directly conflicts with who Eli wants shot, and with who Marshal wants shot (to some extent: Marshal wants PKR shot and calls him vigbait, but also strongly suggests Derps).

Another sign of them not being paired fmpov, although very minor and possibly just NAI with me reading into it too much.

Eh. I thought he was townreading CRich. This is getting hard to track. In a vacuum, I think lol bouncing his progression on people this EoD is villagery but idk.

So, his reasoning on CRich scum is the same as his reasoning on PKR scum. “AtE.”
Easy line to take, and I would expect better from town!Eli? I feel like this is poor reasoning even for him, correct me if I’m wrong.

Lmao.

This is NAI and I am not scumreading Marshal for this. I think she would always do this.

Back to townreading CRich?

Insists on the Appel scumread while there are three viable-ish wagons, at least one of which is a villager.

…Kinda villagery maybe?

That’s EoD1.

#7001

The thing I like about Atlas the least is that they’re super floaty during EoD.

#7002

Lol was bouncy while Atlas was floaty, Marshal and Eli felt more pointed.
This read is becoming ridiculous.

#7003

I take that back, it is a viable world to you, you just don’t believe in it.

This is true, but also, “the entire game has barely discussed their slot” is a thing as well.