The optimal play for scum here would be being friendly towards everyone else and get out the most sus player tomorrow.
I feel like you have the best grasp on the game, but you are a bit misguided. Let’s talk though
I gotta say. I know for a fact its Gorta and Kiro, literally all logic is pointing in that direction, yet Gorta is still making me doubt myself. Gorta is good at throwing suspicion at other people, he’s done it a ton and he’s good at convincing people too. Good plays on his part ngl
Sorry this just took me forever, but I ISO’d Arctic.
Well, this is what I had written on the possibility of an Arctic/Kiro scum team. I’m going to ISO Arctic now to make sure I don’t miss anything.
Lol
So, as you all recall, Arctic pushed very hard on me all the way through D1. He kept it up even after I outed as PR, and kept it up the next day until I gave my tracking information as well.
He pushed a little on Appel for placing so much stress on Silviu and nearly getting him mislynched early which we obviously went ahead and did anyway.
He pushed a little on Min for also jumping on the Silviu train (but without voting).
Well, he was right about that, wasn’t he
Then there was Arctic’s initial readlist in which he actually scumread everyone. That’s not an attitude I see common among wolves - they look for an easy target or two instead of sussing literally the entire court, but I guess it could be an uncommon tactic that I’ve just never seen before.
He strongly questioned the mislynch on Silviu, which I guess most other people also questioned tbf. He abstained from voting.
He threw a lot of sus on Gorta for that vote on Silviu. And the thing is, I see a lot of consistency in what Arctic says. He hasn’t backed off of Gorta and he started out by being sus of everyone, which is probably a better (and less wolfy) way to start off than to trust everyone, unlike what Kiro was doing. As a townie, it’s not good to trust everyone in the beginning because it not only puts you at risk, but it puts everyone else at risk for your misreads and misvotes. Arctic has been very careful and abstained from all the voting (although that can be a case in itself - he hasn’t voted on anyone despite pushing).
But in comparison, Gorta, on the other hand, has been inconsistent and we’ve all seen it. Appel commented on it, Cloned mentioned it, and I also brought it up a couple of times (see my post above). I know I’m not supposed to confbias here, but the level of inconsistency in Gorta’s statements far exceeds what I see in Arctic’s statements because I haven’t caught him being inconsistent without stating his reason for a change of opinion.
This was pretty early, wasn’t it?
He pointed this out as well. The thing is, if he’s scum with Kiro, he set Kiro up for a bus today and he’s setting us up for a mislynch on Gorta. But Gorta has had suspicion on him since D1 so I’m not really convinced it would be a mislynch. If Gorta’s just bad town as Appel put it, he’s a really great scapegoat that literally everyone has suspected, and I really don’t have much more to say because I’d be kind of stuck in my thought process here.
He made a good point here, too, imo. Kiro really didn’t say too much about Gorta and still hasn’t. Kiro was so totally focused on tunnelling Cloned that he didn’t give much of an opinion on anyone else, which basically just says to me he was avoiding interaction with the other wolf. On the other hand, I saw Arctic questioning Kiro’s behavior, but I didn’t really see Kiro interacting with him, either. So basically, what I draw from this is that Kiro’s been distancing during the game from his scum partner.
When Cloned was still claiming to be alignment cop finding me as scum, Arctic went through and analyzed the situation. He did the math, doubted there was a framer, and still sussed me more than Cloned. But then he checked the wiki for information on how framer works and found that it can frame tracking results.
He called for a thunderdome between Cloned and me, but this was before Kiro claimed PR and Cloned revealed his bluff.
He even considered this angle, which honestly I didn’t see most of the rest of you bring up as a possibility until after that.
He called for investigative town PRs to out themselves, but also just PRs in general.
Once Kiro outed as a protective PR, Arctic changed his mind and decided that the protective PRs were more sus than I was because of the low likelihood of two protectives. This makes me think that if he were scum with Kiro, and we pretty much know at this point Kiro is scum, he wouldn’t tell Kiro to claim protective PR. He would either tell Kiro to claim some other kind of PR, or he would tell him not to claim PR at all. As Worse pointed out, Kiro could have felt forced to claim PR because I’m a tracker and would see that he was taking night actions and was therefore not VT, but unless Arctic was setting up a kind of pointless two-day bus on his teammate, this doesn’t make sense to me.
The point of Kiro claiming protective PR was to throw the sus on Cloned, not me, and Cloned died N2, which blew Kiro’s cover. If Arctic had really been setting up the bus that long, then he would have to guarantee none of us would ever suspect him and be very meticulous at covering his tracks. And for that matter, he could still bus Kiro but tell him to claim a different type of PR, and not the same type of PR that he was planning to kill N2 because that would defeat the entire purpose of claiming protective PR.
The thing is, if Kiro had claimed investigative, we would have had a tracking chain and probably a role check instead of a protective chain, and while the investigators can track each other, they can’t kill each other. My being the only investigative claim in the game has made me the “most wanted” target, meaning that the real protective claim was guaranteed to be on me and would have to die first.
But the truth is, Kiro is almost definitely a rolecop. A mafia alignment cop wouldn’t make sense as we only have two factions in the game, a parity cop wouldn’t make sense for the same reason, a killer PR would definitely not make sense (and we would have lost by now), and so only a rolecop or a protective would be left. Of course there’s a chance Kiro could be a mafia doctor, but what’s the purpose of having a mafia protective if nobody can kill you? Town doesn’t have a vig or I’m pretty sure someone would’ve been shot by now.
For that matter, yes, I think Kiro could’ve made a panic claim and just had to claim some kind of moderately feasible PR and hope the game went in his favor and not against him, but I really doubt that Arctic in particular would have advised Kiro to claim protective. As unlikely as it was to have two town protectives, most of us agreed it wasn’t totally impossible (but also that one of them was fake).
He picked the same t/w pairs that the rest of the town seemed to, although I guess we weren’t really given too many options given the information we had at that point.
He suspected Gorta more than Appel throughout D2, but also said it was less likely Gorta was scum than Appel based on his earlier reason with Gorta thinking Cloned was protective.
But if Kiro was a rolecop, and he checked Cloned and not Arctic as he claimed, I suppose mafia would have known for a fact that Cloned was a bodyguard.
On the other hand, Kiro immediately said (along with his doctor claim) that he healed Arctic N1 because he thought he was the most likely to be killed. Why did Kiro think Arctic was the most likely to be killed? Would it have made any sense for him to bluff and claim to be on his scum partner as a fake protective as opposed to claiming to be on one of the outed PRs who were, from a town point of view, much more important (sorry VT) and need protecting? Remember that Kiro has also been hard townreading Arctic and not just me, and if Kiro is distancing with his co-scum, this doesn’t add up.
He brought up some interesting points here. He pointed out that it’s possible neither Gorta nor Appel is scum. He sussed Worse for sheeping on reads, but so did I. Basically in this post, Arctic reconsidered all of his reads, and I feel like that kind of open mindset is really uncommon among wolves at that point (but please tell me if you come up with any examples where a wolf has done this). He was less willing to vote Worse than I was because of the possibility of a mislynch. I don’t think I’d consider that TMI, since we mislynched Silviu D1 and look how that turned out.
He did, however, change his view from Gorta being lockscum with Cloned. He said Cloned was the only person he could see being mafia with Gorta, but Cloned flipped town so we’re looking at Kiro now.
He changed his mind on Appel here after she jumped votes from being so flustered with Gorta (but honestly that’s what made me the most sus of her and pretty much sealed my vote on her).
We have this from Arctic, as well. Kind of NAI, I think, but he did a lot of speculation on it throughout the day.
He asked about why I thought Gorta/Kiro could be a w/w pair since he didn’t see it as very likely.
This was an interesting read because I hadn’t thought of it. I’d say it’s NAI because it could either indicate TMI or legitimate speculation…
He brought up distancing here as a tactic. I didn’t actually know what he meant by that at the time but I understand it now as scum not interacting much with each other or even slightly scumreading each other.
When I gave my plan of having a protective chain, and Kiro said he did not want to go on Cloned, Arctic was the first to jump on him and tell him to follow the plan (I can’t find the quote but it’s somewhere).
He was totally honest about this earlier and couldn’t determine where Kiro fit into the PR claims. (And Worse agreed with this statement as well and wrote his own take on it.) I don’t recall Gorta commenting at all on this, though.
Lol
Maybe he has a good point here, maybe he doesn’t. The thing is that the ones I assume are the two most experienced players here (Appel and Gorta) pushed on each other to the point of a thunderdome, and we had a fairly level playing field there because it wasn’t just an experienced player versus a newbie. And even that was hard to tell between.
I’m trying to think of how I should interpret this if I assume Arctic is a wolf. He could have simply picked a side, but he was sussing on Gorta until Appel suddenly switched and removed her vote. Then he sussed on Appel, but then went back to sussing Gorta more because Gorta’s arguments against Appel were always the same, while Appel had multiple points and had dissected Gorta’s inconsistencies.
When he read the evidence Gorta provided against wolf!Appel, he did believe it because of how similar she was to this game.
And yet he still questioned why Cloned seemed to prefer voting out Gorta. He didn’t just go, “ok we vote out Appel” because it would have been easy at that point to vote and mislynch. He stopped to question why Cloned would choose Gorta over Appel, and then he himself didn’t place a vote on either of them. Oddly enough, neither did Kiro because Kiro was so intent on voting Cloned. I feel like if both of them were wolves, one of them would have voted on either Appel (to make the voting go faster and since that’s where most of the suspicion lay) or one of them would have voted on Gorta (to “prove” that, once Appel flipped town, one of them would be “confirmed” by a vote on the right person). But the fact is that neither of them voted, and the votes on Appel were slow and last-minute, so it’s not like the wolves would have outed themselves by having one vote on Appel. This basically tells me that only one of Arctic and Kiro could be a wolf because it’s weird and a bit counterproductive for both to abstain, and we know that to be Kiro. There had to be a wolf pushing on either Appel or Gorta there, and nobody placed a vote on Gorta even for the sake of a townread bonus.
The thing is, Arctic still hasn’t really townread anyone else at this point, and as a wolf that’s kind of weird. It only takes a light push to shove the rest of the town off the cliff as the game’s a gamble determined by the D4 lynch. And Arctic hasn’t jumped to vote at all the entire game. In fact, he literally hasn’t voted.
This goes back to my earlier point about Kiro’s protective claim and claiming to be on Arctic N1. I just don’t really get how a two-day slow bus would even be a good strategy for them. It would honestly just be bad because it could cost them the win in the end.
He did also suspect Worse of being scum with Kiro, except for the fairness of the setup, going off what I said earlier.
He interrogated Worse for his wording of “other maf” as opposed to explicitly naming Gorta, or admitting that Worse was also considering Arctic.
He did continue to scumread Worse after that. Could be a scum frame. Worse is just a very easy scum frame to be perfectly honest.
But then he went through and ISO’d Worse, and reached the conclusion that it’s so unlikely that it can’t be.
It’s not confbias, at least, since Arctic was also fairly convinced Worse was the remaining scum for multiple reasons. But could Arctic be scum who’s choosing between framing Gorta and Worse? Why not just pick one instead of being indecisive, unless he’s really just being meticulous enough to pick the one with the weakest counterarguments?
I was also wondering why no one was pushing on Arctic lol. I’d definitely like to see his ISO on Gorta once he’s awake and has the time.
Also, this x100.
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I literally ISO’d every single one of his posts I’m sorry
But yeah, basically - I don’t see any scumslips, I don’t see any wavering or jumpy opinions/votes without a good explanation, and I really don’t see anything there that smells like a wolf. Not that I should be talking; I’m town and I went through the entirety of D1 being wolfy (and even soft admitted I have a tendency to do that) so wolfy behavior isn’t everything to me.
But I took notes throughout the whole game and I just ISO’d both Gorta and Arctic, and came up with maybe 1-2 questionable statements at most in Arctic’s ISO, and a heck of a lot more in Gorta’s, so I’ll let my interpretation speak for itself. I know confbias is a thing, but I’m also capable of taking a step back and looking at things a second time. If I read something the first time and immediately think, “this is really towny”, I’ll go back and analyze later and ask myself, “if I were confbiased in thinking this were a wolf instead, how would I interpret it?” and then write down what I see.
Literally the only way Kiro/Arctic could be a team is if they megadistanced and planned to bus Kiro from the start of the game, but also not too soon, and to give Kiro 3 days to live in order to confirm Arctic as locktown.
Which is, actually, a really elaborate plan and kind of seems like too much work as well as being very risky if Kiro gets bussed D2 for claiming protective being on his scum partner. That’s just a weird play, but I guess this game has been full of weird plays tbh.
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And also, I just really think Arctic’s way of reading everyone as scum and letting them work themselves up the ladder is a very towny way of building an effective readlist.
Gorta, if you want to ISO Arctic and give your reasons why he’s a scumread, please do.
I mean I was never gonna go through his entire iso and prove why I didn’t think it was him, but yeah. The way he’s been acting has been very not-sus to me, he hasn’t really hard pushed on anybody except wind D1 (i think), and I think he had a very good reason for doing so. All in all, if its arctic I will commend him for such a well played game.
Yeah, that’s another good point. You can totally have a non-pushy wolf, but the other wolf needs to be effectively pushy, and Kiro mostly pushed on his kill target which is not a smart move if your partner isn’t pushing on anyone at all.
As of right now, the suspects are as follows:
- Arctic suspects Gorta.
- Gorta suspects Arctic.
- Kiro suspects Wind (I’m the only other PR and his only push option; he’s cornered)
- Wind suspects Gorta.
- Worse suspects Gorta.
And we already know Kiro openwolfed by killing Cloned and not giving a readlist, ggs.
I’m guessing Gorta is pushing on Arctic rather than Worse because he sees we’ve kind of already made up our minds about not suspecting Worse for setup reasons and also for Worse’s scumreads.
He didn’t say a thing about Arctic
but wouldn’t that be a smart play from a scum PoV?
Kiro was never getting lynched there
Not if he scumreads Kiro for three days straight, imo.
I disagree. It jumped from being a lynch between Cloned and me to being a lynch between Cloned and Kiro, or possibly any of the three of us, until I said we’d test the PRs during the night instead and the court swapped over to choosing between Appel/Gorta.
No, if you think about it if you do that you distance well. I could argue that that points to them being wolf with Kiro. They would know Kiro could be a wolf and push that earlier. Kiro was somewhat well townread on d1 and most of d2
By that point we were in the Appel/Gorta dies today phase
But both of them not voting D2 and Arctic not pushing on anyone at all except for me on D1 is like… they’d have no agenda pusher at all as a result.
Lol yes, but neither Arctic nor Kiro pushed on you or Appel. Kiro pushed on Cloned and that was kind of it.