Isn’t this logic the same as from ToL?
You can rule out which classes a slot can be by occupation/jail as mech confirmation based on night kills.
Why do people keep missing out parts that literally tell them the answer?
Look below the ‘Terrible Logic’ line.
We literally had in the last FoL Game, 5 deaths in one night. There would’ve been 6 but one of them was prevented.
Ignore the Observer line, that was there because my original vote was for Andy but Alan started existing. Same goes for the Jail Exe Alan. Names are confusing.
Sorry to burst your bubble over there, but Alan is the King, and well, voting Alan here isn’t a viable strat here.
Though I do really like your post over here.
I mean jailing the King might be a play if only that were possible.
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Come to think of it, I find it fairly likely that at least one mafioso hopped onto this wagon, given how easily it ended up forming.
I firmly townread Alice and Nicolas, so it would have to be somewhere within Isabel/Jane/Helen.
The slot among these three which struck me as the most obviously suspicious is Helen, because of how little she has done overall. Jane is on my priority list when it comes to reading people. I’ll probably end up posting an ISO of her soon, unless I decide to start with Isabel instead.
Can the King Grand Trial himself?
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Mary making me think about that in her post with all the responses is slightly towny. Another mild town ping from Mary’s slot, I’m taking notes of those.
They probably could, but it is practically useless as king will just welp, decides not to execute himself.
But I guess you could do that to just get rid of its uses if that is what you mean by that post.
This is the same Helen who was one of Lucy’s scum reads and they died.
I’m sure there has to be a connection there.
I think I got Andy confused with Alan way too much.
Helen is literally not doing anything. It’s the most cop-out lynch I could imagine.
But I also think it’s likely to hit a mafioso.
Then again, I would rather lynch Alan today if people are not opposed to the idea of killing the King, or Andy for blatantly lying about not realizing Thomas has been replaced (as well as being tracked to the nightkill, and being underwhelming analysis-wise, etc., etc.).
I have about as many mafia reads as townreads, and I’ll try to fix that by the end of today.
By the way, I’m aware that he claimed CW.
@Andy_Bernard Why did you go on Lucy of all people? Especially not protecting them from all visitors and well, death.
I saw you Townread them but that’s about it.
It felt cheap especially cuz they had active playstyle
I was hoping he’d understand if you remember he just spammed alice scum with 0 awareness
admittedly D1 I was mainly just reacting to stuff that caught my attention mainly but that’s D1
I do however feel that me talking about theory read is a bit missaplied while I get here it was directly related to whether we should lynch thomas or not
and yes I defended myself I did it mainly during school breaks and while I was watching movie yesterday cuz it doesnt need that much time
neither do I get the defense being non productive like if I was scumreading someone best insight I could get to them is if they were telling me their thought process and answering my initial concerns
Were you able to garner any more reads than you had on day 1 and early day 2? Do share.
I haven’t and I will make them when I have time
Anyway, time to ISO dive on some players that I was mostly curious about rn.
Nicholas
Opening were pretty NAI, however, he does bring up some good point that Andy’s opener were somewhat iffy.
Although I sort of disagree with his first post, he did seems like he was being aware about Thomas’s slot, so some TL from me.
Just some random interaction with Thomas with no avail, NAI.
His read list here seems pretty town motivated enough, and have written down some pretty detailed information about them.
Somewhat random fluff inside here, but meh.
Ehhhhh. I didn’t really like how him naming Thomas being “obvious” town is just a sarcasm remark, especially when he didn’t clarify it first in his read list.
Though the below explanation does seems to explain that a little bit.
Here is the main part that irked me about Nicolas at EoD1, it just feels kinda awkward for him to post something like this at first, though he did said:
Just a little bit meh overall.
This was his response when I was asking Gilbert about his response being somewhat defensive, even though I really wasn’t asking Nicolas question.
And well, he responds with this, and I gotta say, the logic kinda eluded me over there. So that is kinda why I scum read him a little bit over here.
And then over here, Nicolas claimed observer, stating that Andy has visited Lucy and then accused him, which Andy does confirm that he did indeed visited Lucy, claiming court wizard using Magical Barrier on Lucy. Looking back at here, unless Nicolas is a converted observer, then him outing his result seems like it seals the deal of him being town inside my mind.
Obviously, I will disagree with the accusation over here, but he does provides a somewhat “valid” reason on why did he vote me, so he seems like he was town motivated.
But anyway, Nicolas is looking good on my side, though people should probably still tries to monitor him to see if anything went wrong with him, including me.
Conclusion: Nicolas is a strong TR in my opinion, as he have shown a clear town motivation for me to see, though there is some somewhat meh post in between, but most of them were pretty good.
/Vote Helen
I’ll likely detail read this later but I’m tired so I’ll see how this turns out.
My reads are quite close to “sort by postcount.” Especially my townreads. I don’t see a problem with that, though.
I actually like Isabel’s opening string of posts. I think the progression between them is fairly natural. She keeps analyzing everyone who entered the thread one by one, and gets right into solving despite the cesspool day 1 had become.
I would also like to point out that Isabel did not say a word to Thomas or about Thomas after the initial claim that Thomas is a villager. That is probably the best look by far within Isabel’s early ISO. The fact she simply acknowledged Thomas, but ignored him later is indicative of Isabel wanting to solve, rather than waste time talking to / about Thomas.
Alan being a townread is the only thing I question, although at the time, Alan looked much better than he does now.
Isabel also has a full readlist on day 1 that does not look like it was developed with little effort. So far, so good.
Pretty much every high townread there is something I agree with now, except for Alan. There is also a townread on Ivo, which is notable, because Ivo was considered quite suspicious at the time. But instead of using other people’s suspicions to scumread Ivo, Isabel has her own contrarian read which seems to have turned out correct. I believe this shows that Isabel’s solving process is very genuine.
These reads remind me that I need to look into Sarah myself.
I feel like her posts have gone through a shift on day 2, however. I feel less good about them than I felt about her posts on day 1.
She also seems less independent now, and has been doing more work bouncing off the reads and pushes of others.
This is notable, because Isabel expressed a townread on Ivo on day 1. (Fifth from the top on her readlist, which is fairly high.) The change in Isabel’s read seems abrupt, especially since she claimed to have mindmelded with Ivo on day 1.
She spends quite some time helping with the reaction test against Andy. While it clearly looks helpful, I’m afraid a mafioso could easily do this to seem helpful as well.
These posts look needlessly self-aware, and rather performative. I was expecting a more… emotional response. Perhaps “stronger” is a better word to use.
The declaration that the push makes Isabel suspicious is rather WIFOM-y and I would rather not try to glean anything from it.
This is something I could call an exception from her general day 2 pattern of helping others more than doing things herself. Since I agree with the target of the push, I do not find it suspicious.
Conclusion: I like Isabel’s posts on day 1, and I think they show a genuine, independent solving process. On day 2, however, Isabel started to fade into the background a little more, and her independence is much less visible. Most of her contributions today so far have been a part of other people’s pushes and claims.
It is not extremely scummy by itself, however, the change is notable enough that I will have to keep it in mind. At the very least, the person she is pushing right now is a person I also scumread, so I do not mind Isabel’s push whatsoever.
If I were to conclude Isabel’s alignment based on her day 1 alone, I would say “town” and add her to my town circle. However, day 2 has given me a little more pause. It feels like Isabel has experienced burnout from being so independent earlier, and there is obvious potential for conversion. There are also a few odd things she has done that ping me as mafia indicative, especially the way she handled the Ivo push. Not only did I fail to find a reason for the abrupt read change on Ivo, but I also disliked the way Isabel finished the push after it had become known that Ivo was the Prince. The string of two posts she wrote struck me as needlessly self-aware and potentially performative, as I described above.
However, despite all that, since hunting for converts is not the best idea this early on, I think I will let this go and call Isabel town until further notice – because, in my opinion, her posts on day 1 still outweigh her less towny posts on day 2. I am not very interested in pushing her today, unless she becomes scummier over time. If she does, I’ll make sure to let you know.
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