[Standard] NUF FM 2 - GAME OVER (MAFIA + NEUTRAL VICTORY)

Oh wait, no, that’s me just being mean and I know this is fluff but Cloned is absolutely not just vanilla flavour wise. They’re something with more substance but something overlooked too. They’re like an oatmeal raisin cookie, basic.

I think it’s time for my readlist, so here goes:

Town (in no particular order)
Eli: I started out sussing them a bit, but their starting behaviour was apparently just a bit eccentric, and the followup was good enough for turning that around. There’s some specific points that did it for me, one of which was their immediate response to marl trying to random-throw a wagon on me, which i think mafia would’ve needed a bit to comprhend first

Decora: this one was a bit debatable, even by my own standing, so I’m kind of surprised that they ended up here. It’s a small townlean though, and it’s really mostly dependent on their D2 behaviour so far. The main counterpoint from preventing anything more towards town is the apparent attempt at not voting anybody? No exe all of D1 and starting D2 with a no exe vote too? Blah!

Eevee: I originally townleaned them for their behaviour - the stunt at the beginning of D1 with PKR, their passuve agressive nature, just seems like stuff mafia would want to avoid due to pulling attention too much. Due to the complete absence in the second part of D1, I’m chalking the no-vote there up to that. I’d like actual words confirming it though

Intensify: While I don’t agree with all of their reads, as far as I remember, they do make sense and the general style of inquiry, coupled eith the dynamics of their reads seem town enough to me to put them here.

Null:

Lol: this one has been giving me mixed signals, so i can’t really put them in either category. There are some sus points, but there are also town points.

Aelin: I originally sussed her on a misunderstanding, which was totally my fault.
But the “ooops, I made a mistake!” Puts pretty much all my D1 reads on her in question, both before the misunderstanding was resolved and afterwards. I’ll try getting an actual read on her again this day phase, so I hope I can move her out of null at some point.

Anybody else that isn’t mentioned (these specifcally will be under scrutiny in the later parts of D2, because they’re mainly here because I don’t remember them yet. Bad memory is a feature, not a bug!)

Scum (in no particular order)

PKR: I originally townleaned this one for the same reasons as eevee, but on review it was more a onsided thing there. The part where they are around in a leadup to the entire marl vs EVO tie without voting even outside is kinda sus. They did say it’s due to timing/item trouble that they weren’t there at EoD, so it’s not as sus as it could be… but they were still there for the beginnings of the wagon, so it’s also not all gone.

Gonz: till bow I’ve literally only seen scummy behaviour and fluff. Okay, it was D1, and the scummy stuff could have been fluff too… but it irks me >.>

Cloned: original sus was on their opportunistic behaviour very early in D1, which was mainly written off in the followup due to outside opinions.
I’m not too convinced that their bahviour following wasn’t opportunistic either, but it’s not exactly a solid thing.
But they were quite insistent on lynching marl over EVO, even if they had some reasons; so if EVO turns out scum, I’m 70% sure cloned is too

EVO: I was kind of teetering on wether to move this one up to null, following the EoD1, but it wasn’t there yet. D2 is promising some stuff, though, so when that comes it’ll be at least a reevaluation.

Gorta: the part where they showed up close before EoD1 and put effort into investigating one side wasn’t great, in my opinion. Doing a full investigation on one and ignoring the other is… questionable, but time constraints are a thing, so I guess I’m mainly begrudging the usage of that time. This is therefore more of a temporary read till there’s something more indicative, going either way

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hey @clonedcheese I have a question for you.

if you yourself were so convinced that my push on Marl was for legitimate reasons yesterday, what are your reasons for voting me today?

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I forgot two things:

  1. Putting it in a spoiler, so sorry.
    And 2.
    Wind: (in the nulls)

The entire wagon on marl was started by her, basically. Or at least the biggest push for it.
This is dampened by marl’s read on her; since he did claim to be good at reading her.
On the other hand, the other one claiming to be good at reading another person is her on marl. And marl flipped town.
Some of the things she’s saying this day phase have that some tone to it, so i’m really not sure how to evaluate that. I’m currently suspecting she’s just a high-charisma type, but i dunno if that’d make her behaviour more town or more scum. It is to be seen

I just want to know how Marl died with 8 votes. When I got off it was split and when I came back I saw no new votes in thread, yet Marl had 8 votes

I think the wolfiest thing about PKR right now is that even before EoD, he expressed a TR on Marl but didn’t really do anything to change the consensus read. He just kind of did a “see I told you so” and left it at that, as if he’s trying to grab towncred for being the only one to explicitly TR Marl (other than Aelin’s willingness to change her read). I also disagree with what he said about that it wouldn’t have made a difference if he’d voted EVO at EoD, by the way, mainly because the wagons were extremely close until the last 10 minutes or so. A single line from anyone other than Marl himself explaining why Marl should be townread might have been enough to change the outcome and either vote EVO out or CFD.

So you didn’t think GonZ’s case on EVO was reasonable?

I’m not totally convinced that I’m wrong on Cloned being town, but I don’t like that he just came in and plopped a vote on me right away after agreeing with me on the Marl case for the majority of yesterday. If he has thoughts on why I should be a wolf all of a sudden, I’d like to hear them from him, hence my asking above.

Oh heck it, since Tilgarial just posted that I guess I need to do what I wanted because I feel like there’s multiple problems here.

(This is going to make me a target and disliked and I know it. But fuck it, I’m doing it anyway)

@clonedcheese I do not want you to full claim. However, I want you to claim if you’re a PR or not. If you’re non PR then people shouldn’t check you during the night. Also I think that you have been acting clueless with no info meaning non investigative anyway. So if you’re already giving that away you should go further.

I do it as both alignments so it isn’t really going to help you to read my tone tbh.

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also no one is going to read that wallpost Wind, I know I didn’t

a couple people at EoD decided to move their votes from EVO to Marl at the last minute and then Marl hammered himself

I don’t care whether EVO thinks D1 wagonomics are relevant or not; if he’s a wolf, the people moving their votes last are sus. If he’s town, the people on his wagon before the tie was broken are sus.

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btw, I also meant to say here that I put high effort into all my games and rarely drop off the radar, so not only tone but activity is NAI for me. You’re gonna have to determine for yourself whether I’m actually solving the game or not.

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I… do agree with what you’re saying. Especially since it was a 6/6 tie at the end, and the only reason marl was hammered was a selfvote. If anybody had made it a 7/7 tie… i have no idea what would’ve happened.
I’m also not sure if things would have gone as tey did if there was 1 more vote on EVO in the beginning

Hmm… I may have forgotten that/it was lost in the entire going-on’s at the time.
But I’m gonna go out on a leg and say it was probably alongisde a slew of other opinions going both ways, so I’m not sure if that’s any AI for him

Eh, he could very well be town. It’s just gonna need some effort to prove it, i guess?
Also the latter part of my reads kinda hinge on EVO’s alignment, so i’m not even sure if they should be included in the cloned read before that flip

I guess we’ll see how that turns out, then

the interesting thing is that I’ve also concluded that if the wagons were T/T, the tiebreaker votes come from town.
because ties are resolved with the yeet being determined amongst the players not tied for votes, T/T tied wagons would guarantee that all wolves would be in the rand pool, which is something they wouldn’t want.
so actually, now that I’m thinking of this, there is motivation for wolves to prefer one wagon over the other even if they’re both town vanilla.

Yeah, but that’s the same motivation for town.
Not to mention that the chance of hitting a mafia is smaller than hitting a town, it also would have been a random lynch and thus not told much about anybody’s alignment, even completely disregarding which alignment the randomlynch hit.
I’m not sure mafia would be as against it as you seem to think

well, there’s a higher risk if the rand is 3 wolves to 10 town in the non-tied pool versus 2 town in the tied pool. It guarantees that 2 town are saved, at the very least, if they’re T/T.

ugh, I had a really important thought I was gonna elaborate on here but I got interrupted by something and now I’ve forgotten what it was. Oh well, I suppose I’ll remember it later.

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Oh yeah, I remembered it now.

I consider PKR one of the people who knows Marl’s play style best, and it looks like he saw the same thing I did. We were on opposite reads of Marl, but both of us thought it was likely that if Marl didn’t get voted out on D1, he probably just… wouldn’t get voted out at all. The difference was that I was pushing Marl and PKR was townreading him.

That being said, it’s possible the scumteam was aware that Marl becomes difficult to ML later in the game specifically because he tends to be able to clear himself as town at least at some point imo. It would be a motivation for them to try to get him voted out over EVO even if wagons were T/T, since it could result later on in a townclear still being in the game (Marl), whereas I don’t think EVO is able to clear himself as town so easily based on the last game I played with him. In the Thing Game, EVO made it to LyLo and while he did manage not to get ML’d, he had a decent amount of suspicion on him for a little while.

*by “a little while” I mean the entire game, btw.

Hmmm… I can see that bring a thing way more than the random lynch avoidance, but it would mean at least 1 mafia knows both of them at least to a certain degree.
And since it would require the mafia favouring the marl lynch over the EVO lynch, that should further limit things.

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