[Standard] NUF FM 2 - GAME OVER (MAFIA + NEUTRAL VICTORY)

[WindwardAway]

@an_gorta_pratai

why has no one attempted to make me post earlier?

@an_gorta_pratai

@WindwardAway

I have a feeling Gorta was not paying attention to the vote count and it’s way >rand town.

No, I wanted to see EVO dead and thought with lol’s vote the wagons were tied. I voted EVO because I thought I was breaking the tie. I tried unvoting, but I got the “the body is too similar to a previous message” and then couldn’t resend before the EoD

what I was hiding is that I redacted my townread on Gorta.
the reason for this is because I heavily townread him for the first post I quoted here (which I believe Marl and maybe someone else also did).
but that was under the assumption that mafia had a 24/7 chat, and if mafia only has a night chat, Gorta could very well have posted that as a wolf, too.
same reasoning on the second post I quoted here. I thought Gorta’s vote that tied the wagons was >rand town because I assumed someone in the scumchat would be able to tell him where to place his vote, but again, if there’s no day chat, my interpretation is also invalid here.

my PoE is Eli/Tilga/Gorta, and 2 out of 3 of them are wolves.
If I’m wrong today, I’ll just get yote tomorrow and town loses, but I’ve given my opinions and I’ll stand by them. I just don’t think anyone else’s plays in this game make sense as scum, and if I’ve let a wolf escape my PoE, then gg, you done fooled me. But I’m voting where I have the highest level of confidence first, and while it’s not 100%, it’s the strongest read I have.

/vote Tilgarial @Zone_Q11

[Tilgarial]

And see, here’s the thing that surprised me the most.
You try going through logical paths and finding the right conclusions, but in the end you throw things in like my idea that there was a neutral, and me thinking that mafia only had a night chat as further evidence of my being scum?
If anybidy else from nuf were still alive, they’d be saying the same thing, lol. Because that actually are things to be expected on nuf from a game like this.

[Tilgarial]

@Tilgarial

Alight, Alrightt

Anyways, i hipe nobody noticed this, but ya’ll see that the only two typos - which, for somebody as clumsy as me, is an actual effort - are a missing R and an additional T in this post.
Done because i was suspecting something like that to come from wind next, so I needed a way to prove that that was an RT.

[Tilgarial]

Additionally, you’ve been setting up my lynch for a while now, i think.
Whenever there was something concerning me, you’d say it more like “there is something about tilga, but something something” instead of actually saying it. I asked the first time, and that was the convo about the neutral stuff.
The neutral stuff that I only mentioned twice in the game, before that

[Tilgarial]

The only thing I’m surprised about is the fact that you didn’t try leveraging lol’s death against me; but maybe there’s a different plan for that. I’m fairly sure he was sussing me too; and that you went immediately after his death with"evetybody is townreading tilga" is very interesting

[Tilgarial]

Additionally, putting gorta back into your PoE? Seriously? I don’t see him being mafia, and him faking it would be… hard, i think

[Tilgarial]

Your PoE has narrowed down the last few days to be basically only the easy lynches, and me, that you have been seemingly trying to set up as a late-game lynch.
Arguments that “if you were wolf, you’d already be decided on who to lynch” are also a good way of avoiding sus after my inevitable townflip

[Tilgarial]

And now that I’ve voice all that,

/vote Tilgarial @Zone_Q11

My flip today, your flip tomorrow

[Tilgarial]

Btw, gorta can basically be taken out of the PoE, but I wouldn’t be so sure on eli. The way she’s been going around actually lynching him while keeping him in the PoE could be specifically manufactured, so don’t just ignore him

[Zone_Q11]

Vote Count

Accused	Voters	Number
Tilgarial	WindwardAway, Tilgarial	2/4
PokemonKidRyan	Intensify	1/4
[Not Voting]	an_gorta_pratai, PokemonKidRyan, EVO, EliThePsycho	4

EOD5 is at 2021-04-07T20:00:00Z.

[PokemonKidRyan]

/Vote Eli

I’d rather us not do a trade rn since I had townread Tilgarial until recently and I had scumread Wind until recently. Now my mind hurts and so I’m electing to vote outside of it.

[Tilgarial]

Lynch me. And then when i flip town, realize this is the setup I am seeing right now.

The thing about

@Tilgarial

Alight, Alrightt. Getting a single mafia gets us another potential mislynch, and should narrow down the entire thing again.

The thing about this, is it works the other way around too. My life for a mafia! This is a worthy trade.
As long as it 100% reveals a mafia, I am at peace with my death.

[Zone_Q11]

Vote Count

Accused	Voters	Number
Tilgarial	WindwardAway, Tilgarial	2/4
EliThePsycho	PokemonKidRyan	1/4
PokemonKidRyan	Intensify	1/4
[Not Voting]	an_gorta_pratai, EVO, EliThePsycho	4

EOD5 is at 2021-04-07T20:00:00Z.

[PokemonKidRyan]

Intensify’s going to lock on me if you die and flip town, Tilgarial.
So there’s no way mafia kills them or me…
And so there’s no chance of victory.

Unless Intensify is Mafia.

So you can see why, to me, I have no option to 50/50.
I need to hit a mafia.

[Tilgarial]

That’s… thinks

[WindwardAway]

Half of Tilgarial's ISO

@Tilgarial

I realized the game prior that I’m too easily townread/leaned and thus tend to be night killed rather early.
In an attempt to correct that, i tried to be a bit suspicious, which ended in about a one hour back and forth between me and that game’s cop on D1 that was basically senseless and was only wasting time/energy

I clearly remember the first part of this post. When I first saw it, I was debating whether to take it at face value or whether it was going to be used as a support for Tilgarial to be considered town.
Looking back at it now, I can say that I did think of this multiple times during the game because every time there was suspicion on Tilga, it felt like it was overridden by someone saying Tilga was very towny, and then they didn’t get questioned much.
But why, then, if Tilga is so towny, are they not dead at this point in the game? The rest of you are probably wondering why I’m not dead, and I don’t have a good explanation for that, either tbh, but I’m perfectly aware that my reasoning on Tilga can also be used against me, and that’s a risk I’m willing to take here.

@Tilgarial

Since you’re asking about it, how does their interaction seem to you?

@Aelin

I don’t really think there’s anything AI in it for PKR, although I can follow Eevee’s train of thought quite easily.

Here’s the first interaction I see between Tilga and Aelin, and it revolves around the PKR/Eevee thing on D1. Nothing really notable here.

@Tilgarial

On one hand, i want to speak up for PKR being possibly town, mostly from a behavioural/intention read (…yeah, okay, msotly gut), but onthe other hand, pocketing (?) Me is exactly what he is being suspected of, so wtf am i supposed to do?

at first glance this seemed like a towny post because it didn’t really reach a conclusion, but looking back on it, it doesn’t necessarily come from town. Taking it as NAI.

@Tilgarial

As for townreads, that’d mainly be eevee and PKR for their interaction there in the beginning. That was threatening to make them the top focus of the day phase, and in my experience that’s generally not what mafia wants, regardless of which side they are on there (lynched/lyncher)

They later followed it up with this explanation of their takes, which looked pretty good to me since I also read the interaction as T/T.

@Aelin

Don’t you know? Any inconsistency, no matter how small, makes some lockwolf! ^-^

@Tilgarial

That seems like it would cause lots of town infighting…
Being dynamic with your reads is kind of important as data and info changes?

Aelin made a joke post and Tilga responded, taking it too seriously by the looks of it.

@Aelin

Speaking of one post, how are you doing, lol?

@lol

doing great just woke up had some pineapple juice what about you mate

This was where the weird interaction between Aelin and Tilga happened over Tilga misreading the post where Aelin asked lol how he was doing. It seems way too awkward to be planned, but if unintentional, could still be scum theater.

@Tilgarial

@Tilgarial

Is it just me, or does aelins reaction seem somewhat nervous?

Here i mentioned it first.

So it should be this exchange:

@Marluxion

Aelin is mafia, thank you for attending my bread talk.

@Aelin

You know what, you’ve got the godread on me, I’ll sheep it tbh tbh

/vote Aelin

@Aelin

Anyway

/vote EVO
one post then dipped was :wowee:

Speaking of one post, how are you doing, lol?

@Aelin

The person I was talking to’s name was “lol”, you baka!!!

@Tilgarial

Ah.
That… that actually makes more sense … >.>

@Aelin

/vote Tigerial
Did you just
not even read the context at all??

@Tilgarial

I thought you meant that for the other person you also mentioned?
And that sentence is totally awkward if i read lol as “laughing out loud”!

@Aelin

If someone’s going to push on me “because of an awkward interaction” I’m going to assume they read around the posts they’re quoting.
The fricking interaction . This just makes it feel like they’re cherry picked in bad faith.

@Aelin

Do you guys seriously not see how ridiculously scummy that is??

@Tilgarial

Hey, it was an awkward interaction and seemingly nervosity at being suspected!
That’s at least two different points!
…but yeah, apparently that was my mistake, sorry >.>

@Tilgarial

You remember that part where i sussed aelin for seeming nervous? Yah, she was just talking with the person lol, apparently
… >.>

@Aelin

I mean
If you’re going to talk about the interaction being awkward
I’m going to get kinda worried if it becomes obvious that you haven’t read the interaction

@Marluxion

she read the interaction
she just thought you were talking to me

@Aelin

OHHHHHHHHH

@Aelin

I get it now facepalm
/unvote

@Tilgarial

When the game is over, we can look back and laugh about it. Till then, it’s probably going to be an embarrassing start

ftr I still think this was a genuine misunderstanding between Aelin and Tilgarial, but the question is whether Aelin was using this as an opportunity to distance from Tilgarial by making it look like an opportunistic vote on a villager.

@Tilgarial

Not opposed to lynching:

Marly
EVO
GonZ
Wind
Eli

Opposed to lynching:
PKR
Eevee

Everybody that hasn’t been mentioned is a) somewhere in the middle or b) I haven’t remembered their existence/participation in this game yet

when Tilga gave this readlist, it matched up with their PKR/Eevee read from earlier in the day, but Marl pointed something out about it.

@Tilgarial

But anyways; with everything as it is, it be time to consolidate wagons somewhat, and it doesn’t seem like gonz is the one this day phase.
Although the fact he went back into hiding isn’t something i’m gonna call positive…

So
/Vote EVO @Zone_Q11

@Tilgarial

You know what, whatever.
Last game i almost lost a sure win due to paranoia

/vote marluxion @Zone_Q11

@lol

i don’t like this

@lol

wagons can be crazy, don’t know how it works here but it settles around 2 hours before eod usually no need to rush it and force people into boxes

i don’t agree with the paranoia but i don’t dislike it

@Tilgarial

Hmmm… it is possible I’m rushing things a bit.
I’m kinda used to 24h days, so maybe I’m unconciously being a bit in a hurry?
Especially considering how the votes seem totally spread out, that could have been the case

@Tilgarial

Somewhat, yes
I would have said he’s a neutral if we had one on this game though (…actually, do we?)

The paranoia is more on the scumread being too easy/too supported, though

@Marluxion

The fact that PKR and Eevee both made it onto Tilg’s “do not yeet” list stands out

NO townreads at all even after 1700 posts, for any reason except the two people having a semantics argument?

@EVO

Why did he switch off me to marl btw?

@Marluxion

It’s easy to look uncertain as scum

@Marluxion

sheeping wind’s read

@Marluxion

they haven’t voiced an independent scumread on me yet

and yet windward is in their “Would yeet” list

it makes no sense

@Tilgarial

There’s a fair few in the middle that’d end up on the sus list rather easily if they don’t show any town behaviour before EOD or in D2, if you wanna include that.
Otherwise, ya can also ask for reasoning, which on most of those i already gave, i think

@Tilgarial

Okay, so, I ain’t gonna have propper quotes in this because I’m writing it off site. Imma add numbers and poster to quotes so they be somewhat good, aye?

So, here is the list i posted that said who I’d be okay with lynching/yeeting/executing for the day:

Marly, Wind, Gonz, EVO, Eli (post number 1619)

So, what makes this an actually useful venture is this post from Marly:

“If EVO is town, every single bolded person in this list is town” (PN 1706)

-he bolded everybody but gonz

The reason why this is interesting is this:

The reactions gotten from it.

I’m specifically thinking about the reactions from those on that list, but i guess you can also go back and check all reactions. I suspect mafia not being ready to deal with that, so they should be caught off balance, somewhat.

My main take is on the people in that list, however.

Because town would be more willing to yeet me if they consider everybody in that list town too.

Mafia, however, would be a bit more queasy about it - if you lynch somebody off based on the premise of you being town, and the person flips town, that’s gonna but at least some sus on you

Or at least so goes my thoughts on the matter.

So here goes the analysis of what happened so far:

Eli immediately:

“I don’t like their slot either” (PN 1707)

Due to the suddenness/speed of the entire thing, there wasn’t much thought behind this, so this is an honest opinion.

I’d say that puts it more likely as a town reaction - considering the main reason Eli was on my list in the first place was basically only their first few posts seeming more of a chaos starter than an attempt at helping, they weren’t particularly high on my sus list in the frst place, so this prolly moves them more towards null/town

EVO - “why did he switch off me to marl btw?” (PN 1712)

I’m not sure if this is an honest question, or indirectly throwing shade.

People are generally more happy about not being voted instead of questioning the why, in my experience.

Also, timing was interesting

So EVO stays where he is, in terms of sus.

(Main reason i didn’t answer in the original readthrough was that i totally missed it, but: i was originally more sus of marl. The entire controversy my head has on them was the literal only thing that prevented me from voting marl earlier than that - and as soon as i started reconsidering the placement of my vote, it was only a question of time, basically. Added to that the immediate convo surrounding that, with wind and somebody else i think, is why it happened so fast? Maybe?)

Next up, despite not being on the list is cloned:

He reacts confused, which honestly can go either way (PN 1718 /1733)

…aaaaand this is the point where i check the thread and see everything went on to another topic, so I’m unlikely to get more out of this.

@marluxion i even said I’m grateful so that if you’re town, you could’ve continued! Smh

Mebbe it’s just the different culture thing though. Can’t get the stuff others try indircetly telling ya if that stuff is different, i guess… but still.

@Tilgarial

@Tilgarial

/vote EVO @Zone_Q11

I may change back though, be warned

@Tilgarial

As for why you’re in my yeet list - I don’t town lean you, and your posts on marl made things somehow controversial for me.
That + no town lean/read = I’m not defending you if people decide to yeet you.
On the other hand, I don’t exactly sus you either, though
But I’ve mainly written that off as over suspicious paranoia by now, so eh

@Tilgarial

I’m doing the mental equivalent of gnawing on my nails.
I could switch, and that would doom marl.
But it could be the wrong decision
On the other hand, staying on EVO could just as well be the wrong decision
Why is it so close?

Do we have any other late voters we can throw at the problem?

The semantics are only part of it - for PKR it’s also simply his tone and in a certain measure his helpfulness
For eevee it’s his willingness to aggravate people. Which, while not nice, isn’t something i expect from town

While people have told me some/most of that isn’t necessarily telling due to meta reasons, it’s, for now, still something I trust my inpressions in

@Marluxion

@Tilgarial

Not opposed to lynching:

Marly
EVO
GonZ
Wind
Eli

Opposed to lynching:
PKR
Eevee

Everybody that hasn’t been mentioned is a) somewhere in the middle or b) I haven’t remembered their existence/participation in this game yet

If evo is town every single bolded person in Til’s list is town

Normally I’d want to say that town can be flipfloppy like this, but it’s not that hard for scum to imitate indecisiveness, especially not when the wagons contain no wolves. But I’m taking a hard look again at that “would be fine with wagoning/would not wagon” list. It’s still a hard if but I’m thinking Marl’s analysis here had merit.

@Tilgarial

@Tilgarial

As far as I can tell, you do seem to be searching for mafia/weakpoints, in your own way.

The seemingly random vote on aelin from you was what put her in my suspect list, as an example
It feels genuine enough that you’re either actually searching for 'em, or actively getting people lynched is your mafia style?
But at the same time, you also don’t seem particularly comfortable with even one person suspecting you. That can either be due to the previous 100% read thing, or not being lyncjed is more vital to you than it otherwise generally is for town.
Which leads me to think of neutral.
But I’m putting way more effort into this than it probably deserves, because this is honestly not that strong of a read

@Tilgarial

It’s honestly mostly just a feel, that I realized existed/came about from shortly after somebody (I forgot the name, the one with a previous 100% readrate on you? Or at least something along the linrs was mentioned ) voiced their possible scumread on you.

I originally thought it could be a W/W attempt at distancing from each other early on because I couldn’t quite tell where/why it started, so I asked for the ISO technique and check ya out.
The possible W/W attempt turned out to be a bit too organic for even my paranoia to mistrust, but something still seemed off

Quites are flipped, second one is first

Hmm… Self analyzing, i just saw in the serch function talk about neutrals was a thing before this, in the favourite-faction talk somebody asked about
Otherwise, it seems to have started with a weird feeling from marl, that wasn’t necessarily mafia?
I’m not sure why i didnt go to the conclusion of him being mafia from that, tbh

It’s not so much the speculation of whether or not there’s a neutral in the game that raised red flags on Tilgarial for me; it’s specifically how this is explained. I’ve gone into plenty of games assuming there was a neutral when there was absolutely nothing that would lead me to think either way, and in some cases there was, but in some cases there wasn’t.

But more importantly is why Tilgarial had such a weak read on Marl being somewhat “off” and then said he might be a neutral, then flipflopped on him and decided to go with voting EVO instead. The paranoia explanation about my read on Marl was fine imo, but then there’s the part in this post where Tilga says that they used the search function and noticed there was talk about neutrals sometime before, and maybe that’s where they picked up the idea of a neutral. The weird part about that is… in response to min’s question of favorite alignment, Tilgarial also said their favorite alignment is neutral - so they were, in fact, still one of the first to mention it.

@EVO

T. I have only seen you asking questions. Do you have any thoughts about Gorta in particular?

@Tilgarial

I am kind of unhappy with how things went with gorta, considering they basically came in, read one side, said “nothing seems town about this one” and voted them, in a situation that’s on a high-tie.
And I did intend on asking about it at some point, because it could’ve just been a busy town.

It’s not necessarily AI, though

@EVO

Kind of a hedgy answer

@EVO

But fair enough.

@Tilgarial

Scum (in no particular order)

@Tilgarial

Gorta: the part where they showed up close before EoD1 and put effort into investigating one side wasn’t great, in my opinion. Doing a full investigation on one and ignoring the other is… questionable, but time constraints are a thing, so I guess I’m mainly begrudging the usage of that time. This is therefore more of a temporary read till there’s something more indicative, going either way

Tilga’s read on Gorta on D2 is weird. It’s hedgy, as EVO says, and doesn’t really seem to go either way. And yet Tilga lists Gorta as a (temporary) scumread, and repeats again that it could go either way.
This is one of the things that actually makes me wonder if Tilga/Gorta is a team.

I gotta get going on other things rn so I’m gonna cut this ISO short, but I got through 200 of Tilga’s posts (i.e. almost half) and left off around the point where Tilga was giving their interpretation of the PKR/lol interaction and the “scumslip” PKR thought he caught lol for, which has now obviously been proven false, but reasserts that PKR is probably just town if he came up with that.

[Intensify]

3 way wagon coming up? >_>

[Intensify]

Also there’s…

Something questionable about the move Tilga just did…

Why the hell did they self vote with only 1 voter on their wagon.

[WindwardAway]

@Tilgarial

@Tilgarial

Alight, Alrightt

Anyways, i hipe nobody noticed this, but ya’ll see that the only two typos - which, for somebody as clumsy as me, is an actual effort - are a missing R and an additional T in this post.
Done because i was suspecting something like that to come from wind next, so I needed a way to prove that that was an RT.

I saw the typos and didn’t notice it was an RT, but I thought something was weird with the post (mainly just that you were chaining yourself with Eli).

@Tilgarial

The only thing I’m surprised about is the fact that you didn’t try leveraging lol’s death against me; but maybe there’s a different plan for that. I’m fairly sure he was sussing me too; and that you went immediately after his death with"evetybody is townreading tilga" is very interesting

but aren’t they? I thought most living players expressed a TR on you.

@Tilgarial

Additionally, putting gorta back into your PoE? Seriously? I don’t see him being mafia, and him faking it would be… hard, i think

not hard to fake if he doesn’t post much, tbh.

@Tilgarial

And now that I’ve voice all that,

/vote Tilgarial @Zone_Q11

My flip today, your flip tomorrow

if you’re town, this is a dumb thing to do and you should get your vote off yourself. I’m the only one voting you as of right now, and this is a weird move to make with absolutely no pressure. I know why Marl gave up and voted himself (which, yeah, he shouldn’t have), but you don’t have an excuse for it if you’re town.

@Tilgarial

Btw, gorta can basically be taken out of the PoE, but I wouldn’t be so sure on eli. The way she’s been going around actually lynching him while keeping him in the PoE could be specifically manufactured, so don’t just ignore him

at first I misread this and thought you meant I was going around yeeting Gorta (which is also true), but it makes sense now that I noticed you meant Eli lol. What gave me doubt on Eli is that you tried to bet your flip on his, like you’re chaining my flip with yours, which I’m not really sure what to do with. At this point I kind of want the game over, but I also don’t want to screw it up when we can still win by identifying wolves.

@Tilgarial

@Tilgarial

Alight, Alrightt. Getting a single mafia gets us another potential mislynch, and should narrow down the entire thing again.

The thing about this, is it works the other way around too. My life for a mafia! This is a worthy trade.
As long as it 100% reveals a mafia, I am at peace with my death.

…yeah, this is what I’m not sold on. Mafia haven’t had to put much effort into this game, seeing as the only wolf we’ve yote was a rand and not even a wagon. There’s no reason we need to be chaining people to each other right now.

@PokemonKidRyan

Intensify’s going to lock on me if you die and flip town, Tilgarial.
So there’s no way mafia kills them or me…
And so there’s no chance of victory.

Unless Intensify is Mafia.

So you can see why, to me, I have no option to 50/50.
I need to hit a mafia.

yep, I see your reasoning but if that’s true then my readlist is fucked.
I’m also fucked if we don’t yeet scum today because I know several of you are either SRing me or at the very least tinfoiling me, and I don’t really have any more of a defense than what I’ve given already.

[WindwardAway]

@Intensify

Something questionable about the move Tilga just did…

Why the hell did they self vote with only 1 voter on their wagon.

exactly what I’m wondering