It also varies from player to player.
For me activity is NAI as I can easily top-post regardless of my alignment.
For others like Emilia and at times Marl, yeah, SBPCBWE does exist.
It’s why I was wolfreading cheese over it as Emilia can’t keep up her volume when she wolves and he’s been on this site long enough to know that.
sbpc exists but its a general trend, not a be all and end all, and should be treated as such
additionally apply case-by-case basis for whether they have irl stuff to do
tl;dr: if youre using postcount as the only or primary reason why you wolfread a player, then you shouldn’t
This tells me nothing, and it shouldn’t for you either
Take a look at the names.
The entire town list is a group of hyperposters, with the exception of lili and phraze since I don’t know them well enough to comment on them.
Centuries had about the same posting as vulgard, both more subdued posters than the likes of marl, you, or chloe. Emilia who replaced into Vul’s slot is a known lowposter as either alignment.
Psyx had a low postcount but waaaaaaay more wordcount than a lot of the others.
Reading alignments from postcount is seeing association from a random distribution.
Basically, yeah.
Defending a player that is known to have a volume tell because “activity is NAI” is a really bad move.
Seeing Emilia I’d say you’re confusing “existing and not contributing” to the postcounts themselves
I had a lot of fun playing with you guys on D1! I didn’t quite expect town to turn things around, but I’m impressed that you all did, considering where we started on D1. Thanks for the game. 
W/e.
I’m just saying is that if you defend a player because they’re a weak player or because they’re slanky and they flip red, you die.
As I said before, I stopped townreading anti-town plays on this site because it has backfired on me more than once as people are now aware of this shit that they’re incorporating anti-town moves into their normal wolfplay like Marshal letting a PR rand in Overwatch or Emilia fakeclaiming red checks in PJO.
Like, what’s stopping you as a wolf from hard-defending and chainsawing over a slanky wolfbud and then trying to handwave it away by claiming that defending slankers is part of your town meta? Absolutely nothing. And because people on this site accept anti-town plays then you’ll probably get away with it.
Point is, this attitude is literally allowing wolves to openwolf without any repercussions at all. And I’m not going to let shit like “I let my top town rand against the flipped wolf because rands are fun” slide.
there are very much extremely villagery defences of lhf wolves and also very very wolfy ones
if you want to make useful reads then you have to read at a deeper level than “X defended Y” or “X didn’t post very much”
When did they defend?
How did they defend?
Why did they defend, and does it match up with their mindset as a villager?
I’m not going to argue about Marshal setting a PR into a rand or Emilia fakeclaiming agenda-y redchecks as things that shouldn’t be punished by the town
but there’s nothing inherently anti-town about defending a slot that hasn’t posted much i dont think
admittedly i don’t have enough context to understand how cheese was handling it but I assume that he was just debunking the “postcount is AI” argument
/shrug
like you can say validly and understandably that cloned’s perspective on that individual point was wolfy but i dont think you can say that it was anti-town
if that makes sense
I get that, but the thing is that defending solely because “they are LHF/slanking” is not acceptable.
LHF-y players can rand wolf and wolves are statistically more likely to be lowposting because many players tend to have volume tells.
I’ve seen way too many people on this site defend wolves just for this reason. Wild West is probably the best example as we had like 3-4 villagers defending W!Seth for no reason other than “he’s LHF.”
Yes, it is antitown as if you’re a villager then you don’t know the slot’s alignment and trying to shut down conversation surrounding that slot is only impeding gamesolving.
It’s why I reacted in a very PO’d manner towards Chloe earlier in the game as I wanted pigeon to actual do stuff this game and towntell and her counterpush on me was nonsensical. There was nothing then indicating that pigeon was villaging and since the only thing he did was OMGUS me and manufacture a read then he died.
D2 was a different story as I was trying to keep up cop cover as I n0’d Vul over bad reasons and thought Appel was cleared over misreading Phraze as the cop, so mea culpa.
I think glossing cheese’s defense of Emiliagard as ‘he was defending them because activity is NAI even though he didn’t have any reason to townread them’ is a mischaracterization, that was how he responded specifically to the activity-based argument against their slot but he did also have specific reasons for incorrectly thinking the slot was town beyond that, which he talked about in P#4802
The majority of players can’t reliably be read on results, the distinguishing feature between town and Mafia isn’t ‘town is correct all the time and Mafia is wrong all the time’ but rather ‘Mafia has TMI and town doesn’t,’ I think cheese was findable as V due to his thought process consistently displaying a lack of TMI (which is more nuanced than ‘he was defending a wolf so no TMI’ since yeah, that’s fakeable)
I disagree with the comparison to Marshal in Ninjas and Guns since there was basically no plausible town motivation for Marshal to randomly push her top townread that she’d said was always real into a rand with a player that she had spent all day calling an outed wolf whereas there was plausible town motivation for cheese to defend Emiliagard
I know this. I just hate cheese’s entire “activity is NAI” philosophy as volume tells and SBPCBWE is something that actually exists in FM and while he did have an actual thought that incorrect led to Vul W it still left a bad taste in my mouth that he partially used that philosophy as a basis.
I actually think activity is relatively less AI on FoL than on most sites outside of a few specific players (admittedly including Emilia) – e.g. SBPC is, weirdly, more accurate on MU than on FoL from my experience (disclaimer: I haven’t done a rigorous statistical analysis of this or anything)
(If I had to guess I would say it’s because people on MU tend to, broadly speaking, prefer villaging, whereas a higher proportion of FoLers either prefer wolfing or don’t have a preference?)
Eh, doesn’t even matter.
As I said before, next time a player on this site defends a wolf just because they’re LHF or is slanking then I’ll turbo them.
Before my hiatus I used to let this shit slide like…
If y’all want better townplay on the site, start actually punishing people for anti-town play.
This was my entire mindset irt Marl d1 as him going apeshit over a n0 was nonsensical.
