[VFM] Town vs Bandits - Day 5 (4/13) - Bandits Win!

Not reallt sure, but slightly good vibes

Who do you wanna chop most?

by this, i mean that i’ve felt most of the logic against him has revolved around stuff like: “i don’t think vulgard would misread me this badly” or “vulgard isn’t interacting with me in the way i expect him to”, and it’s kind of impossible for me, as someone that does not have an established dynamic with vulgard or an awareness of your dynamics with vulgard, to trust in that read. i’m more interested in a holistic consideration of vulgard’s game and why it’s wolf-indicative for him specifically, but i don’t really feel like i’ve seen that yet

weh

villagery weh

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If the wagons are V/V, then Emilia is probably just villaging.

If there’s a wolf in Vul/Will, then Emilia’s probably wolfing.

If Vul/Will are both wolves, then Emilia’s lock wolf.

Never seen them this frantic about EoD before.

some general notes i guess from what i skimmed. probably gonna be a long post but shrug

  • don’t like how will says that he was townreading leafia until they voted him - that’s a reactionary and omgus-y response to pressure and is imo more likely to come from newb scum than newb town

  • think marl is town here. think if he’s a wolf it would have been insanely easy for him to push me given that i’m mostly consensus poe given my lackluster play so far but he actually took the time to really delve into my mindset and actually parse my catchup/wallposts and take things out from it, which is what i wanted people to do in the first place as opposed to monolithizing (that’s not a word but I want it to be). he’s taking the path of most resistance if he’s a wolf here and i think in this playerbase he would try to not make the game harder for myself

  • though i am concerned that i am potentially misclearing someone since i only have one real scumread (vulg)

  • haven’t read any of WW’s posts besides the one where she scumread me and did not vote or engage with me, i’ll try to comment on her posts as they come around. i do recall seeing that her wagon kinda progressed really quickly which made me a double-take though

so ww got quickly voted by i think alice, spf, and chloe (and then i think emilia later on). what’s intriguing to me is that her wagon just much more easily formed on her than any other wagon in the game thus far. gut feels like that’s rand town for ww? like what scum wouldn’t be chomping at the bit here? (i’m not sure who the scum is on the wagon, it might be emilia)

  • i need to do a more concentrated read-through on emilia but i liked some of her reactions to people prodding her, but i don’t actually recall what’s she’s /done/ today besides sheep others? again wish i had more time for this game

  • emilia/taylor are not w/w with how taylor has been describing emilia as being “fake” but refusing to elaborate/go deeper into why they think that is the case

can you go deeper into this? i don’t see anyone seriously pushing eli other than vulg and even he has mostly tabled eli off

  • 1125 from vulg is villagery in a vacuum, but still i don’t get why you would play the early game like that if you’re lost (pretending to have a super confident scumread and to tie spf together with chloe). i’ll check his meta where he tries to “get the game going” but i still think there’s a mindset discrepancy here

  • marl saying that he has a lot of exp. with spf makes me think that he’s even more town because of how he denied/pushed back on spf prodding him early in the game when i think as a wolf he’d just try to give her some reasons or appease her

  • can confirm that vulg and i have been trying to schedule a game together for a while now, out of game, since i like the dude and appreciated his post-game comments

  • marl’s 1158 is really good, i think i’m just gonna sheep him on ww because I don’t have the best track record of reading her (i knew her alignment in ditf and she was self-resolving in ciconia)

  • think vulg admitting that he is dead inside in 1159 is also a little villagery? also same with admitting that he is frozen. this is stuff that’s easy for competent wolves to fake but it shows a decent lack of self awareness/lack of caring how he’s perceived

  • i’ve read and liked a lot of spf’s posts but i’m gonna try to save a more dedicated read-through here until d2 since I just -haven’t had the time- today. it feels like i’m playing mafia in 2d and spf is playing in 3d lol (too strong for mere mortals such as I)

  • ww’s post 1198: okay. can sorta buy this from ww given that she kinda misread me hard in ciconia when i think as a wolf again it’d be insanely easy to just push me

  • re vulg’s 1199: i’m not completely sure if i buy the explanation about spf, but your consideration wrt arctic making sense in a spf/chloe team makes sense. just was wondering bc again I don’t do that type of worldbuilding generally until we get closer to xylo

  • i read one of the vulg games he linked but i’m not really getting the same sense that his approach this game was similar to his past games. in the light game on MU he linked, he voted and scumread diiye for having a different reading order and kinda kept tunnelling on diiye throughout most of day 1 and kept finding additional reasons to scumread him. feel like that’s different than what he did here with chloe and spf here

okay I can sorta see it in ciconia - his scumread on wazza felt very confident and i’m pretty sure the thread sheeped him on wazza in that game given how much shit wazza dealt with that game

  • wrt vulg’s 1212 (where he talks about emilia/will having partner equity) i don’t think a newb scum (willtaylor) just starts pushing on their buddy to start the game when it’s just detrimental to their win condition. if will flips W then i’m pretty confident clearing emilia

  • vulg’s scumread on alice feels like something he just pulled after looking at the playerlist honestly? like it feels unprompted and at the same time more detailed than any of the other pushes he has made thus far. not sure if he had any sort of progression on alice before. i need to check and see if he did. my question here is, if vulg’s a wolf, why isn’t he just railroading on me or will as opposed to actively trying to change thread direction and push on alice?

why would windward be afraid of hitting the post limit here? she is iirc along with me as one of the lower activity players thus far, and she entered the thread late

windward’s response to chloe in that post feels somewhat genuine, though

trying to wrap my head around vulg/ww kinda just seething at each other but not actually doing anything to brigade one against the other. maybe it’s just because ww is around ITT and alice is not, but I feel like his reasons for wolfreading wwa are a lot stronger than his reasons for wolfreading alice, but he’s voting alice and not wwa

  • wrt arctic’s 1284: sure, i was tired last night and didn’t think that through very well. but i still have issues with how vulg presented that team comp, since i think this was after he admitted that he was unsure about his reads

  • i like vulg’s 1291 in terms of how vulg is defending himself, but i disagree with his conclusion that marl is mafia. if marl is scum then he is taking the path of most resistance here and I don’t see that being the case

  • wind 1307: i give people room/space to work with as either alignment - i play this game because of the community, and i’d hate to see people stress themselves out over my presence in the game for oog reasons (i know that people will still stress but that’s due to a game-related reason).

  • vulg 1310: i did look at your reasons but they weren’t detailed enough or gave me any indication that you actually read the game (specifically wrt your read on chloe). i wanted a more detailed explanation of your mindset

okay just gonna skip the rest and post this because it’s an hour to eod and there is just so much content. i swear this thread feels like its 5/6k posts when it’s in actuality 1.6k. summation of where i’m at in my next post

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I’m giving up on getting caught up before EoD. That being said, what’s the threadstate and votecount at right now?

Eh, fair enough.

Main reasons I’m SR’ing him are due to intra-personal ones where I’m p sure that he wouldn’t misread Marl or me this badly so for someone who doesn’t have experience with us then this’d kinda feel foreign.

there’s probably exactly one wolf in the pool of windwardaway/will/emilia. i don’t think that will/emilia are ever partnered, so a world where that pool of 3 names contains 2+ wolves (like some have suggested, iirc?) is a world where windwardaway has to be a wolf. i would probably resolve in that pool today

If this was the team I would’ve already conceded and 0 posted :joy_cat:

I kinda think Emilia is only a wolf if shes a wolf with Vul ftr

I don’t see her going this hard on a villager

Doesn’t go the other way around though

i have enough townreads that vulgard is just on the outskirts of my POE by default, so i do kinda understand the suspicion toward him even though im not super convinced by the reasoning so far

what is your current take on windward?

IIRC I once hosted a mash where she faked a green peek on a wolf because she TR’d them, so I kinda don’t think that it’s guaranteed that they’d be wolfing with Vul W.

Though the way that she tried to explain her read on Vul felt more like she was backtracking on a PR soft after I saw right through what she was doing, so eh.

I was a lost wolf and I faked a green peek on villager, because I thought they were packwolf. That also led to actual packwolf being exed that day :joy_cat: .

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Eh, clarify?

I feel like will’s push on Emilia was plinko board-y enough to be W/W and that Emilia pushing Will over Vul makes sense since in an Emilia/Vul/Will world then she’d probably try to keep the stronger wolf alive.

You were not a lost wolf in Drakengard. You were a villager.

Oh I thought you were talking about clown fiesta.

I don’t think I faked a green peek in draken though? At least I dont remember.

I think she’s >rand w but my towncore full of people who know how to read her pretty well say she’s villagery, and I do actually agree with one of their takes that she did one of her self-centered reads that are usually indicative of her being a villager - but when I look at her posts on a larger scale there’s absolutely nothing that wows me, and this doesn’t feel like her normal towngame at all. She feels flat and she isn’t taking the position in thread I’m used to seeing from her, where she’s carefree with her RTs and makes everything orbit abound her and chokeholds the thread sometimes

One little instance of her being self-centered doesn’t quite do it for me

So I’m in an awkward position where I want to listen to the reads of the people I trust to read her, and I want to give her more time, but my personal read disagrees

Votecount

Voted Voters Count
willtaylor Leafia, EliThePsycho, Arctic, Marluxion, Emilia 5
Vulgard Prophylaxis, Chloe, Alice, GGhana 4
Alice Vulgard 1
Emilia willtaylor 1
Prophylaxis WindwardAway 1
WindwardAway staypositivefriend 1
Not Voting X 0

Majority is disabled for today. Ping me for votes. Day ends at 2021-08-30T20:00:00Z

Post Restrictions are now lifted. 1 hour remains.

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