Wild West FM - Day 5 - Mafia Win!

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#5462

I wanted to address some comments from Ash and others about my lack of posts. For D1, this was due to being out of town. For D2, it is mainly because I’m finding it rather difficult to say anything that seems constructive beyond what others are already saying. Yeah, I know that shouldn’t stop me from posting, and that’s something I need to work on.

When I first heard that this was a vanilla game and learned that meant no special mechanics, I was interested in how that could possibly play out. I thought for sure that you’d need at least some mech to distinguish people and allow for proving or disproving claims. A completely social reading game seemed rather difficult to comprehend, but I thought I should at least try one for the experience. I know that social reading and social solving are skills I need much work on.

And yeah, it is really difficult. Everything is based on tone and people’s past experiences with each other. I only have experience with a few people from SFoL63, so those have been a little easier to read. But everyone else is baffling. I often default to looking at certain people with aggressive behavior as wolfish, but I realize from my little experience and what others seem to say that aggressiveness can often be a trait of good town solvers. And other behavior like fluff-posting is often dismissed for certain people because that’s just who they are.

So I’ve been writing a few of my thoughts here and there, but I feel rather unskilled at some of the bigger thought exercises. I also don’t want to derail things when there are serious conversations going on. I’ll just continue with writing out my thoughts as best I can so that you can at least see what I’m thinking. Thanks for understanding.

My next post will be some stuff I wrote up during the night phase.

Watch Your Mouth!: Sophomore Year (3/17) - Day 5 - Planters (Mafia) Win!
#5463

So here are my thoughts that I wrote up during the night phase.

Centuries - town

Open-wolfing at beginning, but this is considered normal silliness for him. He’s recently switched to solving more.

Ash4fun - town lean

He seems to be invested in solving.

Trochidillae - town lean

She has an Innocent tone and seems very involved.

An_gorta_pratai - town lean

I mostly base my town lean for him because his tone is similar to SFoL63. I don’t usually find his comments particularly helpful, but I guess he’s attempting to solve.

Light - null

This one has me confused. I still didn’t like how he didn’t seem very town-friendly on D1.

Appelsiini - scum lean

The argument with Wazza makes me think one of those two is scum. I don’t think they are both scum since the argument seemed to genuine. But I think one is trying to shade the other, and the other is feeling very defensive as town getting accused.

Wazza - scum lean

He’s acting weird and I’m still not sure if this all stems from just being frustrated in general with these games due to SFoL63. I could see how that game might hit someone pretty hard, especially him since the pressure came down to him in the end. There was so much else that went wrong earlier in the game, but the end play gets noticed the most.

I do like how Wazza was re-examining Vulgard, who was quickly positioned as town core. Perhaps he’s right that this was a mistake.

Vulgard - null

Originally I was pretty sure he is town. His tone was generally the same as SFoL63. He does offer lots of comments to help solve. But then Wazza made some good points I kind of missed earlier when all the crazy stuff was happening. There is some definite flip-flopping by Vulgard, and I don’t know if that can just be attributed to him examining things from all angles.

Luxy - town

He’s really involved and working on solving. I wasn’t happy with his argument with Leafia and his early aggressiveness, but I have to acknowledge that he’s been pushing to solve.

Universal - town lean

His tone appears town. In general he seems to be helping and solving.

Thunal33 - town lean

Not sure on this one. Lots to say and generally seems to be working for the good of the town.

Sulit - null

She hasn’t said a whole lot. I guess I wasn’t happy that she voted me just for having few posts and not having the opportunity to reply. But I could see that just being town trying to solve.

Eevee - scum lean

Yes, I understand she replaced in. But the early players didn’t look good, and she hasn’t really improved the slot. She seems a bit too defensive about people asking for her opinion.

Apprentice - scum lean

He’s basically open-wolfed after getting suspected for bussing Seth. It’s hard to assess his AtE. He seems like the type of player who might use this to get out of dying. Like he would use reverse psychology to make people think he wants to die and so is just town.

Some of his advice about how to examine people seems good, like possibly not reading people based on player skill. I do notice this seems to be done often. Usually people place the most skilled players in town core except when they display some obvious tell that everyone thinks they know about. But I can’t help thinking that good players will change and modify their behavior. Like when people say they always bus as wolf. Why can’t they decide not to bus a certain game? I can see it being difficult the other way around where a person that normally doesn’t bus would not be able to turn around completely and bus the next game. But going from bussing to not bussing seems possible.

So here’s my PoE in shooting order from top to bottom.

Scum lean
Apprentice
Eevee
Appelsiini
Wazza

Null
Sulit
Light
Vulgard

1 Like
#5464

Thing of note,

Luxy is not the most clear town

And I doubt the people here regard them as “more powerful” than ppl like vulgard.

So the kill was probably for reads.

I’ma read up on them

#5465

Well, I was just entertaining a Luxy deepwolf theory last night.

#5466

I feel like we need to talk about a few things here. Luxy was starting to express that it was possible that the wolves were out of the PoE and also expressed some doubt towards Vulgard. I do think Vulgard is town, but we need to really take a look at everything Luxy had to say here.

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#5467

Yeah, I agree. Wazza said some stuff about Vulgard too I thought worth considering.

Watch Your Mouth!: Sophomore Year (3/17) - Day 5 - Planters (Mafia) Win!
#5468

Exactly. Also now that Cecil’s entire PoE flipped town I think we can conclude that town was really wrong D1 except for Seth, or someone with at least a little better reads would be killed. But we pretty much already knew that.

#5469

Our goals today include analyzing Vulgard and thinking about our PoE before blindly blasting in it. The wolves are at 4 and ITAs cut off at 8, so we have to blast a wolf before they blast in town.

#5470

And Apprentice made some good points about re-examining assumptions about players.

Watch Your Mouth!: Sophomore Year (3/17) - Day 5 - Planters (Mafia) Win!
#5471

Exactly. I’m getting the feeling that any PoE we make is really wrong. There’s definitely at least one wolf in the towncore, possibly two or more.

1 Like
#5472

We should look at people who were pushing the status quo PoE D1 and D2.

#5473

Even if my reads are good the wolves will usually let me live because I barely do a thing about them and when I do it’s easy to discredit me.

#5474

My main suspects for today are Centuries and Vulgard. We also don’t blast right away, so hold your shots until the later part of the day

#5475

This is the closest thing to suspicion there is–middle of last night

Followed 3 minutes later with

I think your assessment of luxy being suspicious of vulgard is exaggerated

#5476

Agreed, we need to talk things through before taking shots

#5477

I was going to make a list of deepwolves/people not in the PoE who maybe should be there, then I realized I was putting basically everyone on that list.

#5478

I recall a few other posts, but that’s why we are going over things and not assuming right off the bat

#5479

Ugh I don’t like this

Like it’s not impossible but I don’t feel like this accomplishes anything but make hero shots

#5480

GTFO

It makes literal no sense to SR these people.

It also mates literal no sense to SR them over, say, thunal who just pushed a CFD onto a villager

#5481

Gorta feels town with these recent posts, he’s pushing a narrative that encourages reevaluating and looking at people we haven’t thought about.