Autumn Invitational - Day 4 (5/13) - Town Wins!

[Chloe]

Vote Count

Accused	Voters	Number
sulit	Hippoyeetus, Geyde	2/5
orangeandblack5	katze	1/5
Geyde	Arete	1/5
Not voting	Icibalus, Solic, sulit, orangeandblack5	4

[Arete]

hi Solic

[Solic]

@Arete

in my admittedly very limited experience with scum Solic he can fake conviction on reads that he knows aren’t true (thinking here of him deathtunnelling me in SFoL 53, though that’s admittedly backwards of the situation I’m looking at here) so I don’t want to give him too much credit for seemingly believing his reads

…

I didn’t even push you at all that game? I was trying to fly under the radar using mech evidence of a bleed that game I think. I agree that I can fake conviction well probably.

@Geyde

I can usually find him really easily when he’s scum and have done so pretty much every time?

You’ve also misread me as scum, when I wasn’t scum. There was this one game where I was mazonizer and we scumread each other until I masonized you. Like your read on me is decent, but it’s not infallible

@Arete

not sure

the model of Solic that exists in my head is a super good player who’s really strong as any alignment but I’m not sure how much that reflects his actual scumplay

I have shown stronger townplay than scumplay, which is why I’m more eager to roll scum atm to actually try and improve that aspect. Although my winrate is actually quite good as scum. I’ve thought about it a bit, because you asked me a hypothetical earlier and I think the problem with my scum self is that I adapt to gamestate and don’t create it, whereas my town self really has a heavy hand in where the game is going.

That was me like a year ago though and now I just don’t have enough time on my hands and I notice it especially here. Like I honestly don’t know how I could have turned up 500+ posts in order to accomplish that, but I’m also going through a personal transitionary period that requires some more attention so, what can you do.

@sulit

When’s the last time Solic scum

… I don’t think I even remember…? Lemme see if I can find it later.

@Geyde

He has this read that the wolf partner of mist/dat was deep but he never developed on it
It’s maddening

And I don’t understand where he is

His takes have been good, but how much of it is him successfully imitating his town tone, which he has done in the past

For the record, I was taken aback slightly that he believed my Dat read relatively quickly, but again this requires reread… AAAHHH

[Solic]

Bye again, work time until like 5 hours from now.

[Arete]

@Solic

…

I didn’t even push you at all that game? I was trying to fly under the radar using mech evidence of a bleed that game I think. I agree that I can fake conviction well probably.

maybe I’m misremembering, it was like a year ago and like the entire wolfteam was pushing me that game along with the entire village

one of the things I remember was people saying that there was definitely a wolf in {me/you} but that might have been because I was pushing you? I can check

@Solic

I’m also going through a personal transitionary period that requires some more attention so, what can you do

(off-topic)

hope everything’s alright with you

[Arete]

(more off-topic)

rereading Solic’s Iso from Looming Threat and I’m like

@Solic

@Arete

Back from O-chem.

Solic:

Also there are probably like 6/7 scum and not 4. Bookmark this freaking post if you have to

I have a tinfoil that Solic is scum and slipped that conversion isn’t a thing.

Effective scum. There is most likely conversion otherwise CW is a super bland. Mercenary turns completely pro town and Swear Fealty is useless (already asked, Elected king gets Swear Fealty). Hunting converts over starting scum is always a bad strategy though.

how did he get away with this

[Arete]

hm, searching my name in Solic’s Iso from Looming Threat it looks like I was misremembering

¯_(ツ)_/¯

[katze]

hi

i didnt remember any of [redacted]s posts today and thought [pronoun] dropped off the earth

instead of being a normal person and ISOing them for D3 i did an approximation of all of the alive players’ postcounts per day

SBPCBWWE

Orange
D1: 590 posts
D2: 120 posts
D3: 360 posts

katze
D1: 410 posts
D2: 60 posts
D3: 250 posts

Geyde
D1: 205 posts
D2: 50 posts
D3: 200 posts

Arete
D1: 210 posts
D2: 25 posts
D3: 170 posts

Butter
D1: 185 posts
D2: 30 posts
D3: 75 posts

Hippo
D1: 155 posts
D2: 15 posts
D3: 55 posts

Icibalus
D1: 125 posts
D2: 50 posts
D3: 20 posts

Solic
D1: 60 posts
D2: 40 posts
D3: 20 posts

i have a few opinions but ill keep this post Objective:tm: so people aren’t swayed either way

so i redacted the name and gender of the player in question

[katze]

oh there was some rounding in place because im too lazy to do exact calculations but it’s like accurate enough okay

random thoughts

sulit town :wowee:

ici postcount today is but theyre still prob my strongest V read so im ignoring it

i didnt realize geyde had so many posts

the player in question was hippo if it wasnt obvious and i was surprised they had so many posts today

if solic is alive on D4 they must 0 post to continue the pattern

currently trying to figure out if i think the last wolf posted a lot or not on D2 and im thinking it doesn’t really matter because D2 was either a pure wagon or only 1 wolf so it was mostly villagers pushing conroy

if i had to guess the first pushers are prob V

rereading days is effort but D2 was like 10 posts so

[Arete]

@katze

Orange
D2: 120 posts

how

that’s 40 posts an hour

[Arete]

for the record when I saw your initial post with the numbers I figured you were talking about Ici

and I was like ‘but he’s V though’

and then I scrolled down and you basically said that so :wowee:

[katze]

@Solic

This is such a gamer gamestate jesus.

Also my reads have been so bad lol.

im going to quote a player

katze Solic said gamer, katze Solic is V

this read isnt serious but i thought this post was funny because i interpret solic as a person who doesnt normally say things like this

[katze]

@Solic

Posts like these make me think that the scumteam was just in an all around terrible position, because Birdo is screaming I’m trapped here, so anyone that is universally townread day 1 is probably correctly universally townread.

this take is interesting because its basically the opposite of what other people believe (that Mists play indicates that the scum weren’t all fucked)

i actually think i agree with this more but i get both sides

[katze]

okay im not actually seeing what i expected to see but i now want a massclaim more than i wanted it before because i have a very strong PR or wolf read on a player

[Arete]

@katze

okay im not actually seeing what i expected to see

what were you expecting to see?

[katze]

something like SoD2 hydra game 3 where everybody came in saying “X is bad”

it doesn’t start off with the same fire as i thought it did

[katze]

i guess multiple people were like “oh i was gonna say dat is bird and also bird is bad” but they were surprised to see that instead of alive bird at the front door there was DeadBird

and then it kinda shifted into conroy bad

Summary

@Solic

@Centuries

I think you’re biased because from your pov sod is way more interesting due to the fact you’re more of a center piece compared to dat who just hops into thread later on and is thus less involved than you

but i still think

-> sod is way less bland than i thought it would be

into

-> sod is boring

is a rather odd jump

but i dont think its scum ai

First legit argument that is not memes defending a bud in a hedgy way even.

@Centuries

I think you’re biased because from your pov sod is way more interesting due to the fact you’re more of a center piece compared to dat who just hops into thread later on and is thus less involved than you

But going back agian

@Centuries

but i still think

-> sod is way less bland than i thought it would be

into

-> sod is boring

is a rather odd jump

and back again. Walking that hedge real tight.

@Centuries

@orangeandblack5

“boring” in particular is such an odd word choice even given dat’s own explanation

I don’t think it’s that awkward tbh

like i felt the same way in the hydra game

@Centuries

i think dat is v tbh tbh

and i didnt even really try to read his slot

its a spiritual read

@Centuries

@Arete

what does this mean??

i dont think he’d call sod boring as a wolf

because

the way he comes into thread, and his feelings sound like something town would have

he shows lack of interest in a townie way

@Centuries

@Arete

like you said you didn’t try to read his slot but … that’s a read … on his slot …

eh

i didnt really read the content

im taking what orange said about what he did

at face value

Yet, you still defended them fairly hard.

@Centuries

@orangeandblack5

except a lot of his first posts showed specifically heightened interest

ok let me reformulate

he shows a regression of interest in a “townie who hopped into thread and then noticed the thread was mostly interacting without them” way

reformulating, or warping your read in a way that you can actually townread them.

@Centuries

yeah im a wolf just like last game

I’d believe it.

@Centuries

@Vulgard

/vote Centuries

@Vulgard

i also dislike him having dat below centuries but that’s a minor point

@Vulgard

centuries is still mafia

@Vulgard

centuries is still a wolf

@Vulgard

you have merely adopted the forum of lies

i was born in it
molded by it

@Vulgard

/vote Centuries @Chloe @astand should make it easier

im going to post it again

but i dont believe that at any point

my early posting generates this response from vulgard

this is literally 100% of his interactions with my slot in his catchup post and none of this is actually content being analyzed or whatever

the motto is deflect deflect deflect.

@Centuries

@orangeandblack5

god forbid he not go in depth an hour into the day?

thats not even not going in depth

thats literally me being his top scumread and literally never explaining the read and then just going

“this post is wolfy, this second post is wolfy, this third post is wolfy” with like no substance

I struggle to understand your reaction because to me it appears you’re not even looking at the argument im making?

So, is Vulgard a wolf for that??? No, apparently not, because you can’t say that, because that’d be OMGUS.

@Centuries

@Centuries

thats uhh

@Vulgard

a read

on you
a scumread, to be specific

i think you entered this game in your “i am mafia and i must look like i am doing things” mindset
so you posted a few times and it looked to me like tryharding
you didn’t really meld into the thread atmosphere without being obviously contrarian and i usually see that as wolfy
and none of your later posts inspired me to change my declared vote

i still do not trust orange having 8 reads before the 100 post mark and pushing on datbird because “his thoughts don’t align with his posts”
he made the exact same read on the possessed/sulit hydra some time ago and was mafia
i don’t think he’s mafia because of that (making the same mistake twice, and such an odd mistake too, is something i find unlikely for him) but that makes me not trust him
basically

@Vulgard

i actually explained it a few moments later

I had to actually react to your post to actually pull a reasoning away from you

I’ve seen nothing that indicates to me that you were making this post if I didn’t actively ping you to ask you why

You’re painting my post as if what you did was post a wall and then immediatly after post the actual reasoning for scumreading me in a separate post when that isn’t the case

@Vulgard

you not agreeing with my explanation doesn’t make my thoughts fake

I’m calling your thoughts bad because I’ve already debunked it and even if I think there’s room for you being a villager who is just flat out wrong about the part where I “tried too hard” (which you never even explained whether it was me trying hard to actually post fluff that makes sense (to try and seem at ease in the thread) or if it was me trying hard to make the game move or something (by pushing kat i assume)) I still think the gap in how much your argument makes sense is like, giga big

@Vulgard

centuries i partially retract my point

most people are tryharding
it’s not just you
and yes i did get “tryhard” from your early posts despite you describing them as memes now
it’s an intent read

and uh to this

I still wasn’t trying hard nor was it my intention to appear as if I was or whatevere

Deflect deflect and deflect some more, but don’t make a call on Vulgard’s alignment sure. I can’t believe a town Centuries would not have the slighest hint of “Vulgard is scum, because they are pushing me falsely”. Instead they just float float on in the thread. The only actual posts of substance they thus far are hard defending themselves and Datbird, take note.

@Centuries

see

i scumread vulgard earlier

some of his posts are MESSED UP

but then

arete logged onto forumoflies forums

said

“vul meta town read”

now i sad because i cant fight that

I bet you are sad about it.

@Centuries

idk why im angry as to him being a walking ic

its just

his read on me is wrong and it makes me angry D:<

I can think of a reason.

@Centuries

fool

thinking claiming pr would allow you to escape your fate

Is this too overt, or is it just me.

@Centuries

SHUT THE FRICK UP MIST

thanks

I bet they were mad after Mist claimed PR unnecessarily.

@Centuries

i wanted to make an ordered reads list but then i realized u all are too kind to be mafia so i just have trs

vulgard
dat
sulit

is my top 3

in no special order

im dumb but at least i believe in my dat read

Gotta reiterate that they definitely believe in that dat read.

@Centuries

V lean

DatBird (early read still stands)
Geyde (variance is higher than the datbird read)

Nullish

Katze=Solic (v leaning, solic i dont have much thoughts, kat i fucking hate you for wolf claiming + your treatment of my slot in your readlists)
Marshal (slightly less v leaning, im kinda hypocrite because im a lazy mf and im putting him here because he also was lazy early on lmao, i dont have much thoughts on him either)

W leaning

Mist (pr claim? but cc’d? idk you guys are pushing her not me)

This supports theory that Centuries wasn’t too informed and thus could make a Marshal kill together with Datbird who also didn’t seem to pay too much attention.

@Centuries

ok good

i like the fact im default poe despite nobody talking about my slot

makes me want to play the game

It’s probably not fun to play the game from your scum team’s position, so yeah that kinda sucks. Lady fortune.

@Centuries

@Centuries

variance is higher than the datbird read

im way more confident on datbird because the datbird comes from socially solving his slot compared to geyde read which is like, mostly dumb gut i got from reading his posts since i dont wanna iso him

Gotta hardbuddy with Birdo now that Mist is down for the count. Note also that most players (like me) were lowering Birdo again later on, because they just kept posting incredibely low effort, but not this guy.

@Centuries

@Vulgard

you have to understand it’s normal

its normal to put me in lower ends of the readlist because im not as active

whats not normal is that nobody has iso’d me / even tried to find my alignment / quoted any posts that looked sus

this is the exact same thing as the hydra game once again

its easier to townread 300 posters
doesnt mean every 300 posters should be town read
its easier to scumread low posters
doesnt mean every lowposter should be scumread

actual fact

less than half the game has even voiced a read on me

why is that

Why me, fry me.

Rereading it instead of skimming it like I did previously actually makes Centuries being last scum very likely to me to be honest.

this post sucks in a villagery way tho

[katze]

@katze

when we’re done that flag is gonna be all white

@Centuries

Centuries

@orangeandblack5

concession woo

@Centuries

ok for legacy

who thinks i flip w here

@Arete

I mean you literally posted a white flag so yes

this is hilarious reading back

@sulit

i think this is bullying now

@katze

join us or you’re next

this would have aged well if i were a wolf because i’d have let the butter fucking melt

[katze]

i dont think solic tunnels so hard on conroy if he’s a wolf because conroy was already fucking dead and the fact he makes a second

Summary

@Solic

@Centuries

you start the wall trying to prove im scum

not trying to find my alignment

rookie mistake

pog

Making this wall can be finding your alignment as well.

@Centuries

@Solic

First legit argument that is not memes defending a bud

why cant it be me defending someone i tr

It can be, but it’s less likely

@Centuries

@Solic

hedgy way even.

if i was mafia why would i be hedgy about a tr on a fellow mafia

Because you’re uneasy hard powerwolfing. I’ve never seen you powerwolf, just deepwolf.

@Centuries

@Solic

But going back agian

@Solic

and back again. Walking that hedge real tight.

i dont even think its hedgy, im taking a stance here, his annoyance was fairly v ai to me at least

If you use but twice, it’s hedgy.

@Centuries

@Solic

that just shows me you’re biased towards me being scum rather than trying to find my alignment

thats such a non argument its just quoting a message of mine and going

It’s , because it’s more of you defending your partner.

@Centuries

@Solic

Yet, you still defended them fairly hard.

I didn’t defend him

I never went agaisnt any W read on them past that point

I expressed a TR of mine

That’s semantics, expressing you townread someone when someone is scumreading them is indirectly defending them as is your scumstyle. You don’t take the confrontation and deflect deflect deflect and float through.

@Centuries

@Solic

reformulating, or warping your read in a way that you can actually townread them.

why can’t this be me, a townie, trying to reformulate my thoughts in a clearer way

Because it’s less likely. You keep trying to make this defense which is making it seem as a if it has to be yes or no and don’t look at any likelihoods obscuring the actual scenario. Something that typically scum do. Possibilities over probabilities.

@Centuries

@Solic

I’d believe it.

padding

Still funny, I remember you openwolving as scum and not as town thus far so. Feel free to point out a game where you did so as town.

@Centuries

@Solic

the motto is deflect deflect deflect.

im not even deflecting hard seeing how my read literally 180s later on

Still deflecting and you can’t even argue against that, so you’ll stick with that it wasn’t the worst deflecting ever.

@Centuries

@Solic

So, is Vulgard a wolf for that??? No, apparently not, because you can’t say that, because that’d be OMGUS.

i dont care if my argument is omgus

its not even omgus

its me telling vulgard his argument sucked

not that it was scummy lol

I didn’t think it was townie, honestly I thought he was scum early on because he seemed very off pushing me

but I’m not deflecting, there’s much easier people to push than vulgard anyway if me vs him is w vs v

Fairly sure this falls into deflecting.

@Centuries

you’re not trying to figure out where my sadness comes from

i thought i caught a wolf

in the end he was just dumb

thus i sad

Hmm, but fairly sure I named a reason why you could be sad about Vulgard not being very pushable.

@Centuries

@Solic

This supports theory that Centuries wasn’t too informed and thus could make a Marshal kill together with Datbird who also didn’t seem to pay too much attention.

thats just

twisting it in a way that fits ur agenda

you cant prove its what happened

No duh, it can’t be proven. Doesn’t mean it can’t be a likely world. You’re dismissing all my arguments based on the fact that there is another possibility out there with non zero probability. That’s all this response has been. I told you to point me to who the scum is, if it’s not you, but this won’t accomplish that, so my vote will stick for now I guess.

@Centuries

@Solic

Gotta hardbuddy with Birdo now that Mist is down for the count. Note also that most players (like me) were lowering Birdo again later on, because they just kept posting incredibely low effort, but not this guy.

you’re confbiasing yourself

i didnt read too in depht

i didnt think he was scum

period

like yeah it sucks the read i voiced the most was on scum

yeah it puts me in a bad position

doesnt make me scum

Yeah, the read you formulated most on like a 100-poster, was not read too in depth. Sure. Not buying it.

like this post was made after arete thought conroy already conceded the boy was already dead

[katze]

im disappointed nobody called me a wolf for jokingly TMIing conroy V like 3 times on D2

anyway im voting hippo or geyde today unless someone throws a wrench at me

i have way better reasons to V read anyone else