(Misc) Blood on the Forums 2: Electric Fang Gu Signups (Closed)

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#167

i just lost a game to pit hag turning the evil twin into a vortox at a clutch moment

#168

I haven’t run the numbers myself but it seems correct that a 0% winrate 25% of the time puts a huge hole in your ability to win consistently

#169

Ironically my first game on this forum was still somehow the best game I’ve ever had as good

#170

Think of it like getting a 0% on a quarter of your assignments in a class and trying to get a passing grade from the other three quarters

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#171

im pretty bad as good

#172

Also, I really shouldn’t be letting myself get baited by an ad hominem attack, but I am sometimes a slightly flawed person so I’m letting it happen anyway.

and it’s 2:42 AM so I’m not pulling examples from more than two games

#173

I’ve just taken an example from your own reality, since that’s what you’ll understand the best. There was no attack involved.

#174

I’m not sure I really read this as targeted specifically at calling your D1 reads bad with intent to insult tbh

#175

Although I do 100% see how it seems like one

#176

And would hope we’re a bit more careful about wording in future :slight_smile:

#177

Sorry, I thought they knew about it and are self-concious about it

#178

I should run the numbers on my D1 reads sometime

But that would take ages

Granted, I think FEFM is probably a pretty good outlier to have on my side :stuck_out_tongue:

#179

Maybe my explanation is confusing for people who aren’t already familiar with the set-up? To put things a little more simply:

  • If you automatically lose 1 in 4 games, you have to win a lot more of the remaining games to make up for it. Knowing there isn’t a Vortox isn’t helpful enough to make up for it.
  • Even if knowing there wasn’t a Vortox were helpful enough to make up for it, you could do even better by solving the game as if there were no Vortox, but not intentionally losing-if-Vortox on D1.
  • Even ignoring the above two points, a Minion can turn a game that didn’t have a Vortox into a game with a Vortox.
  • But none of that actually matters because it ignores all the reasons people actually play games.
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#180

Ah

Cutting words

I feel you rn

#181

These final 4 are gonna suck :frowning:

#182

Well this is obviously wrong from my perspective, because the only thing I wanted to show is that to no-lynch doesn’t damage your wincon. D1 no-lynch is always the optimal play without having mechanical leads, and since you can’t trust any mechanical leads in this game, you should play it like mountainous.

#183

Now I have literally no idea what this game is

But losing 25% of games D1 is definitely not doing anything except harming your winrate, right?

Do I misunderstand a mechanic?

#184

What do you prefer? A fast lose or a slow lose?

#185

When I sign up for a game, I generally want to play it

Also I’m not convinced you’d lose significantly more than 50% of the games this thing is in

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#186

Well, this actually gets into some slightly complicated theory questions about the differences between an odd and an even number of players, but at the very least in odd player counts, it’s nearly always optimal to lynch daily in S&V – if you no-lynch even once, you have fewer total lynches with which to catch the Demon, which means you have fewer chances to be wrong.

Also, since dead players can actively participate in discussion in BotC (they just can’t use their ability or nominate, and their voting is more limited), many of the normal drawbacks of lynching town no longer apply.

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