Do you think it would be so foolish to vote right now?
I may be silly but not so much
Don’t vote until you absolutely have to. If you aren’t going to be here for the final moments, vote when you leave. We need every one of towns votes to be able to kill a scum
1 Like
What did you do last night? Why do you say that I know?
The thing is that votes are locked as soon as you vote, and because we have two wolves in the remaining player pool, if just ONE town misvotes, the wolves will hammer.
1 Like
windward, you are the only person i know is town
i couldn’t imagine what it’s like being you right now with 4 unconfirmed players to choose from
First off - I think Kiro is a rolecop and if he did check me, then he knows I’m only able to track on odd-numbered nights. I was bluffing to force both Cloned and Kiro to out their actions first, but since Cloned turned up dead, I’m telling you guys this now.
Now I want everyone to give their readlist. Please write if you think someone is individually scummy, and also write who you believe their wolf teammate could be. State your reasons as clearly as possible. Also, if I were a wolf, who would my teammate be? Consider the same question for all players currently in the game.
Here’s my readlist as of right now. I spent a couple hours typing this up during the night phase and wanted to post it while I’m not dead.
Possible scum and who their co-scum might be:
Arctic: Gorta, Worse
Gorta: Arctic, Kiro
Kiro: Gorta
Worse: Arctic
Arctic
Arctic didn’t scumread Appel, unlike Gorta, Worse, and me, so that’s a good look for him right now. He still hasn’t really done anything wolfy from what I can tell, unless he’s just really good at evading suspicion, but I still think because of his long D1 push on me and then D2 on Cloned/me, he’s very much still a townread. I could maybe see him as scum when paired with others, but nothing he’s posted individually strikes me as scummy.
Gorta
We have Gorta’s whole interaction with Appel to go off here. If we assume Appel and Gorta weren’t just pointing fingers at each other as tunnelling townies on D2, then Gorta would unquestionably be scum. That being said, his scum partner would have to be one of the PR claims. His vote was on Cloned when Cloned was close to getting voted out by majority, and then he hopped onto Silviu when Cloned outed as PR. That doesn’t look like a likely pairing to me, but the other scum could be Kiro. I also think Gorta’s reasoning on whether Cloned and I could be t/t, t/w or w/w was a little flipfloppy, unless I just misinterpreted.
Kiro
This post by Arctic on D2 brought up an interesting point.
Kiro has insisted this whole time that I am town, but when I was close to getting yeeted out, he didn’t have anything to add in my defense. Why is he so confident I’m town? Why doesn’t he bother to give his reasoning when I’m close to getting mislynched on D1, if he’s so sure? Is there something he knows as a hard fact because he’s a wolf (TMI)? He’s been sheeping me the whole game and it still bothers me that he hasn’t really made as strong of reads on anyone besides Cloned (lockscum) and me (locktown). That really doesn’t tell me much, although his logic that one of the PRs is scum is probably correct. Is he pocketing me or is he just pulling a Surge?
Also, I want to remind you guys that Kiro offered to open claim, ended up claiming VT, and also asked early in the game if any of us think he’s a wolf and then voted himself. I didn’t see it as openwolfing, mostly just a careless and kind of weird newbie move, but does anyone think it could have been? Especially given the situation we’re in now. I did consider the possibility that Kiro is actually VT, not a PR, and not scum either, but then he’d just be playing suboptimally and throwing the game, so I’d much rather not think that.
Wind
I’m going to self-analyze a bit here and summarize my thoughts. If you find any contradictions in what I’m saying now as compared to something I’ve previously said, please do point them out because I want a chance to townclear myself (other than with this hellishly long wallpost). If this post doesn’t clear me, though, I honestly don’t know what would.
So far we’ve had 4 town flips, and you’re either going to lynch Gorta or one of us PRs today. All I’ve really done is proven myself as a tracker and nothing more in terms of night actions. So if you’re going to scumread me and say I’m a wolf, you should probably not consider Kiro as my scum partner.
Based on how I’ve interacted with the rest of you, what are your feelings? I’ve towncleared Arctic a bunch of times, which I suppose you could interpret as either a towny or wolfy move. I initially towncleared Kiro but rescinded it once he claimed 3rd PR. I scumread Gorta more than Appel initially because of how he was reacting (caps lock) and blaming his poor judgement call on trusting Cloned above his own intuition, but then thought Appel’s hedgy outburst in reaction to Gorta’s D2 tunnelling was a scumslip because she had remained very composed until Gorta was basically pointing at her (and I was obviously wrong). I’ve scumread Worse the entire game, and I don’t even know if that’s a good read or not because it’s his first game and he’d be unsure regardless of being town or wolf (it was mostly his jumpy votes in particular that caused me to keep a scumread on him), and for that matter I thought if Worse was scum then Cloned would have been the most likely candidate to be his scum partner. That being said, Worse has now moved up on my readlist.
Worse
Worse is really not the biggest scumread I have right now, partly because of Appel’s town flip and partly because I personally feel there’s a limited number of pairings they’d work in. But individually, I still don’t read them as towny except maybe just inexperienced town at best. He’s not my main concern right now as I don’t believe he’s a mafia PR either way, and we have Gorta to deal with as a priority. Also, I mainly saw Cloned as his scum partner, but Cloned was town. I don’t like his jumpy votes at all on D1 and I don’t like that he had to be prompted to defend himself when I was calling him scum and prompted to analyze for himself to decide whom to vote D2. At any rate, he has room for improvement, especially if he’'s town, but I think with more experience he’ll be more confident in his reads anyway.
Arctic/Gorta - Unlikely
I’d like to say the chances that Arctic could be w/w with Gorta are low. Arctic remained more sus of Gorta than of Appel on D2, even at the end when the majority moved to lynch Gorta. He could have been doing a light bus on Gorta because it was looking much more likely that Appel would be voted out, but I’m not entirely convinced of that, especially considering it was essentially a thunderdome between Appel and Gorta, so Arctic gave his input based on his reads. Still, Arctic/Gorta is more likely than Cloned/Gorta, except for the lack of a PR claim in it.
Arctic/Kiro - Possible
Definitely possible. Arctic never really towncleared Kiro the whole game, despite a lot of others doing so, and yet Arctic never chose to push on Kiro, either. Only once Kiro claimed to be the town doctor did Arctic suggest a lynch between the 3 PRs, which Cloned and I both discouraged (but Kiro spent the day pushing Cloned).
Arctic/Worse - Possible
Honestly, I haven’t given much thought to this potential pair. I don’t think it’s out of the range of possibilities, but I’m not sure why it would be a thing. Arctic did tell Worse to vote with his own opinion and not just follow others, and so Worse voted on Appel, which is the first vote I’d credit Worse with making independently. But other than that, there hasn’t been much interaction between these two. Is it because they have scumchat? Is it because they aren’t online at the same time? Is it because they don’t really ask each other questions? Idk.
Gorta/Kiro - Likely
Because Appel flipped town, Gorta is a pretty solid scumread at the moment. If he flips scum then we’re guaranteed one of the PRs is a mafia PR, and by Cloned’s logic in stating that we should lynch Gorta D3 if Appel flips town, Kiro has to be the scum PR because Cloned bussing his teammate when they’re close to achieving parity would, in fact, potentially lose them the game. All the scum need is a single, stray townie vote on another townie and they hammer to end the game, so if Gorta is scum then Kiro is scum. I know I said earlier that probably only one of Gorta/Kiro/Worse is scum, but I rescind that statement and take Kiro out of it because it only adds up properly if we consider this pair.
Gorta/Worse - Very unlikely
For the same reasons as I’ve stated before - there’s no PR claim in this pair, so it just wouldn’t add up. Only one of Appel/Gorta could have been scum, and only one of Gorta/Worse can be scum. Gorta was also prompting Worse to reach his own conclusions and not sheep, which is just sort of NAI to me, and Worse did decide in the end to vote out Appel, but again - there’s no way this pair can exist unless one of the PRs is not actually a PR at all (and both Cloned and I confirmed each other as some type of PR), which would implicate that Kiro is a fakeclaiming VT.
Kiro/Worse - Unlikely
I’m going to outright say that I think this would be a dysfunctional pairing; no offense to either of them individually. I say this because they’re both very inexperienced (Kiro having gotten lynched as VT in his first FM game for playing suboptimally and not understanding some mechanics, and Worse playing his first game here) and it would be really unfair for the hosts to have paired them as scum. If it were randed, yes, it’s a possibility, but as I mentioned before, I don’t honestly think they could have lasted this long as a scum team unless we’ve totally been looking in the wrong places and Kiro has improved drastically from his first game where he sheeped Surge (and yes, I did go through and read that game, so I’ve seen town Kiro, town Silviu, town Cloned and scum Gorta now, at least to some degree), but considering he’s been sheeping me in this game I really doubt that…
How the hell has this all worked out?
tl;dr - if Cloned and I are both town PRs, Kiro is a mafia PR and Gorta is the second scum.
I spent 3 hours during the night writing this all out and then deleting my speculation on Cloned once he died; that’s how.
1 Like
i actually think it’s much more likely we kill kiro here than gorta
kiro is a third town PR claim which at this point is a big no-no
they also didn’t follow the simple instruction of going on cloned. so off the bat that’s my instinct of where this is going
i’ll have my readlist out tomorrow, tonight is unlikely
1 Like
All good … I’ll have mine too later
Yup. Either way, we lynch one today, lynch one tomorrow (and I probably die tonight for my wallpost)
Yup, no rush. We ain’t hammering.
thank u and cmon at the same time
I don’t think this is the most suspicous thing, but it does make me doubt their claim
1 Like
if we don’t mislynch today and the game continues then yeah it’s very likely you die tonight and it goes to 2v1
thatll feel claustrophobic, but at that point I hope its fairly obvious who the scum is
You don’t have to reveal it right now, but do you have an idea of when you’re going to reveal the results of your investigation?
how is this not suspicious
we basically had a 95% foolproof way of winning if they followed this instruction yet they didn’t
LOL. I don’t do gamethrowing. Here it is not allowed to make different strategies?
It just doesn’t make sense to me. Attacking cloned/wind reveals they werent healing cloned, which basically discredits their entire claim. Why would mafia do this?
Sorry lol
Should be, based on who gets lynched today. I think my reasoning was pretty clear in my readlist wallpost, so hopefully that helps, too.
I did. I put it at the top of my wallpost; I’m an odd-night tracker and not an even-night tracker. Remember I said something about “watered-down PRs”? Yeah, I was softing, I’m a watered-down PR.
Well, no, because you got our bodyguard killed by not being on him. If there had been no deaths, you would be proven as a doctor. But Cloned died and you didn’t follow the plan, so you’re either mega throwing (which I doubt), or you’re a mafia PR who needed an excuse to be on Arctic N1.
They had to take a chance. They can’t get any kills through if the bodyguard is still alive, and this game was only built to last till D3 or D4, depending on our (mis)lynches.