Thing Game - Joy Flavor - Game Over - Town Wins!

[Whysper]

Either Wind and EVO or Wind and ATNo would give me a much better chance. Because then it would be just convincing Wind that the other was wolf.

[Whysper]

Actually the more I think about it, the more I see that this situation favors ATNo the most. W!ATNo would have the best chance to convince either V!EVO to vote V!me or V!me to vote V!EVO.

W!EVO would stand a better chance with V!ATNo and V!Wind, probably going with convincing V!Wind to vote V!ATNo, while still having a way to suggest a deep wolf possibility for V!Wind.

W!me would stand a better chance with V!ATNo and V!Wind also. Pretty much for the same reasons.

Also, I find it interesting that ATNo is pushing the idea of Wind being a suicide convert. He was stressing the whole suicide convert a lot the previous day, too. It was part of his insistence that Gorta had to be the cuddle to avoid him pushing the button. That somehow he had maneuvered Gorta into feeling safe the night before and waiting to use it.

This also conveniently serves a way for him to go back on previous reads. Basically he had everyone else as town, but since there’s a convert, all that is out the window. Though interestingly, he still keeps his TR on EVO despite also believing the suicide convert is likely. Actually if Wind was a suicide convert, ATNo would have been the best choice. Wind would want to still set things up best for a wolf win. So going back to the scenarios I described at the beginning of this post, converting ATNo would give the best scenario compared to converting either EVO or me.

Also his insistence on the whole hesitation for voting Gorta as suspicious doesn’t make sense. It’s fine to explain that as his original thought process. But shouldn’t the fact that there were two people hesitating and only one wolf indicate a faulty thought process? At least that the hesitation is NAI? Yet I feel like he’s focusing on using it to either suggest that Wind was a suicide convert or that I was wolfy for my hesitation or both. The logic doesn’t work out there.

Plus looking back at ATNo’s ISO, the tie vote comes back to mind. Yes, the story seemed plausible at the time, but maybe it was a mistake to accept it. Maybe it was just what it looked like on the surface, a successful attempt to save Appel at the last minute. Then the PKR vote could definitely be a bus to keep ATNo from being voted plus give him town cred. They could have agreed that ATNo had the better chance of continuing forward. PKR talked about being too busy. The bus then leads to the momentum towards Gorta that ATNo has been arguing was inevitable and shouldn’t have been hindered.

[EVO]

This is good discussion. @ATNoName any retorts?

[Whysper]

Considering another area, though, if we think Wind did a suicide convert, and we think that the person converted would likely display a noticeable change, I would actually feel that EVO seems more different than previous days than ATNo does. EVO seems more involved in facilitating conversation and solving. Now of course this could simply be because this is F3/Lylo. But that thought did come to my mind. Again though, I’m so convinced of a suicide convert by Wind.

[Whysper]

@Whysper

I’m so convinced

*I’m not so convinced

[Whysper]

In fact, if EVO had been this way previous days, I would have probably been more inclined to TR him.

[Whysper]

I was reading through Umineko, where Appel was a wolf. I noticed that she pretty much put all her 3 wolf buddies in her PoE. I was a little surprised by that since I assumed she’d at least TR one.

@Appelsiini

~Town: Marl, Cloned, PKR, CRich, Wind
~Null: Literally everyone else, that’s all you get

Then in this game, her initial PoE had PKR as town. Marl (ATNo’s slot) was also town. Everyone else, including EVO, was null, which is basically her PoE.

@Appelsiini

Rather than having a definitive PoE, I have people I never want to cuddle today. If I had to list people, it’d probably look something like this?

Uni
Whysper
Gorta
PKR?
EVO?

Then when pressed a bit for her PoE, she has put PKR there. EVO is still there. Marl is still town then.

@Appelsiini

Current PoE:
Whysper
Uni
EVO
PKR?
Min?

Another PoE later still with both PKR and EVO. Just the question mark was removed off EVO.

@Appelsiini

I originally thought their slot was really towny when they were Marl, but less so when ATNoName replaced in. I was going to let it be due to my earlier townlean, but their vote at EoD was actively scummy so I think they deserve to be re-evaluated. I don’t think that vote ever comes from a town, so they’re a slight scumlean now.

It wasn’t until after the ATNo tie vote that she starts SRing him. And this could be seen as an opportunistic read going along with consensus. Especially as we discussed, this ended up being a weird read from her position since that tie vote saved her and it was V/V wagons.

@Appelsiini

My PoE consists of Whysper, EVO, PKR, Uni

Please follow it

Then for her final post when it is inevitable that she’s caught and can’t do anything, she drops the pretense of SRing ATNo and doesn’t include him in her final PoE. Just EVO and PKR.

I get the impression that Appel likes to distance from wolf partners. So I find it weird that she would start off her reads by including both partners (PKR and Marl) as town. It is more likely that she’d at least include one in her PoE (EVO). And then she moves PKR down into the PoE to distance from him also. And her final PoE still includes both as a possible way to spew them town?

This leans me towards thinking Marl wasn’t wolf at that time. Was he a later convert? N5 was Uni and N6 was Wind. If I stick with the logic that Appel wouldn’t TR both her wolf partners, then I would have to think Uni was the likely suicide convert.

As a caveat, I know looking at meta is bad. And it’s possible that Appel decided to go with a different approach this game and start with TRs on both partners. But it was a thought experiment while I was going through her ISO this game and the Umineko one.

[Whysper]

@Whysper

This leans me towards thinking Marl wasn’t wolf at that time. Was he a later convert?

BTW, I meant “Was that slot a later convert?”

[Whysper]

@Whysper

N5 was Uni and N6 was Wind. If I stick with the logic that Appel wouldn’t TR both her wolf partners, then I would have to think Uni was the likely suicide convert.

Though thinking about this, ATNo had no noticeable change between D5 and D6. On D5, he already hinted at Gorta being his next push and followed through with that D6.

[ATNoName]

Wind's post about T!Gorta

@WindwardAway

Ok yes, I understood what you were saying about that from the perspective if you flip town. I’d like to avoid preflips but I’ll keep it in mind anyway. If the game doesn’t end after today, everyone still alive is gonna have to do some serious reevaluation which is yikes, but I don’t want to lose this when we’re so close to winning.

One thing I’m noticing is how I said yesterday that the last wolf would be forced to push agenda today, and yet it only looks like ATN is doing the pushing, but I don’t think he’d do that so obviously if he were a wolf and you were town. I do still think he may be right on you, and your frustration at not wanting to defend yourself earlier was kind of weh. But on the other hand I wouldn’t discount the possibility that you could still be town. In that case,as you said, it’s just suicidal either way for ATN to push you today, so he’s probably not a wolf. But that means, if you aren’t a wolf and ATN isn’t a wolf, the wolf is actually not pushing agenda today.

The thing is that a lot of signs point to you being a wolf, and if you’re not, it’s going to be incredibly hard to weed out the wolf the next day (which I believe is LyLo). I want to sort my thoughts and give a PoE before the end of today so that at least I have another legacy post since I’m most likely dead tonight.

If you aren’t the wolf, I don’t actually think ATN would be the last wolf based on what you pointed out earlier about it being a suicidal move. It would be between EVO and Whysper for me, and I’d have to ISO them to figure that out. I haven’t seen any tonal shifts from either of them that stuck out to me, so i don’t think there’s a convert between them (unless they’re just really good at keeping a consistent tone), but if one of them is deepwolfing then I’m gonna have to look through everything again, including wagonomics, and see whether there are any patterns.

@WindwardAway

I hate to interrupt your interaction, but I do think you need to take a step back, particularly ATN here. (Also sorry this took me so long to write that you’re probably done interacting now lol)

@ATNoName while I don’t think your case is wrong on Gorta, I’d like you to give an opinion on the other slots as well. I know you said you thought EVO, Whysper and I are all town, but if Gorta does flip town, who would the wolf be? Blah blah avoid preflipping, but I want to make sure we aren’t set up to lose if the game doesn’t end today.

I feel like Gorta tried to steer me toward SRing EVO earlier, and I’m not super convinced that Gorta isn’t just the last wolf, but on the other hand I’m questioning why, if Gorta is a wolf, I thought he was towny earlier. I can see him trying to set up a villager as an ML for today if he’s a wolf because he tried that gambit in the Pokémon 9er, but on the other hand, I wolfed recently with him in Umineko 2 and unless he changed his tactics, in this game he doesn’t give off quite the same energy.

Regardless of today’s yeet, in the worst case scenario we have leeway for one ML before reaching LyLo. I’d obviously rather vote out the wolf today, but if we’re wrong, I think we should give everyone’s opinions consideration, including Gorta’s if he actually does flip town.

@WindwardAway

that being said, I gotta get back to studying but I’d like to avoid hammering so I still have time to reevaluate. I’m not going to place my vote until I’m absolutely certain I’ve reached the right conclusion, and right now I’m not that certain.

@WindwardAway

I also have this nagging feeling that I’m being kind of subtly pocketed here which is worrying me, but I don’t want to blindly throw town!Gorta worlds out the window even if it’s the simplest solution

@WindwardAway

can’t tell if you’re TMI’ing him as town or not tbh
because you’re saying he’s confbiased instead of pushing him as a wolf
I know you gave your reasons earlier as to why he isn’t a wolf, and obviously only one wolf remains, but it’s just… idk
like you’re appealing to ATN to get him to change his mind by reading him as town based off preflipping yourself
that defense actually only holds water if you’re town, but it can also possibly save your skin if you’re a wolf trying to weasel your way out of the yeet today.
and I feel like I’m stuck in the middle of this having to decide whether Gorta or EVO is a wolf, since Gorta is basically trying to start a thunderdome on EVO.

@WindwardAway

I’m still trying to listen to you here I have faith that you can defend yourself as town, but the thing is that if you’re town here, you’re getting too emotionally invested in this and it’s reflecting in the way you’re defending yourself. Not saying that it’s objectively bad, but the thing is that most of your defense today has consisted of self-metaing and complaining that people aren’t listening to you, instead of giving us reasons why we should be listening to you and why your voice should matter to us. So if you want to actually convince us you’re town, you need to change your strategy.

Whysper's post about Town Gorta

Didn’t really mention any possibilities in her post.

Ok, so I was wrong, Wind was hesitating about T!Gorta possibilities while Whysper straight up didn’t vote.

@Whysper

This also conveniently serves a way for him to go back on previous reads. Basically he had everyone else as town, but since there’s a convert, all that is out the window. Though interestingly, he still keeps his TR on EVO despite also believing the suicide convert is likely. Actually if Wind was a suicide convert, ATNo would have been the best choice. Wind would want to still set things up best for a wolf win. So going back to the scenarios I described at the beginning of this post, converting ATNo would give the best scenario compared to converting either EVO or me.

I mean, the whole hesitation thing was made during the night when I was questioning “how would a wolf leave any indication of TMI”. If anything, it was part of my re-evaluation. I’m still confident that EVO isn’t a starting wolf. Preventing the possibility of convert is good, but when it happens, that’s where we have to accept the reality of it.

[Whysper]

@ATNoName

Didn’t really mention any possibilities in her post.

I mentioned EVO as a possibility somewhere before Gorta latched on to him for the thunderdome of sorts.

@ATNoName

Ok, so I was wrong, Wind was hesitating about T!Gorta possibilities while Whysper straight up didn’t vote.

I didn’t vote because it was getting too close to hammer. And even though I was hesitating, I would have likely voted for Gorta anyway since I still saw him more likely scum over EVO at the time.

[Whysper]

@WindwardAway

If you aren’t the wolf, I don’t actually think ATN would be the last wolf based on what you pointed out earlier about it being a suicidal move. It would be between EVO and Whysper for me, and I’d have to ISO them to figure that out.

I was noticing part of this post that ATNo quoted from Wind. If Wind was indeed wolf and did the convert, I think this also shows how they viewed ATNo as the best to survive Lylo.

[ATNoName]

@Whysper

I was noticing part of this post that ATNo quoted from Wind. If Wind was indeed wolf and did the convert, I think this also shows how they viewed ATNo as the best to survive Lylo.

Could also be you considering you were spewed town.

[Whysper]

Actually this also contradicts my original thoughts on this scenario being best for W!ATNo. From this, maybe keeping Wind actually would have been good.

[Whysper]

I hadn’t originally noticed this from Wind.

[Whysper]

I need to take care of some stuff, but seeing this is making me rethink some earlier thoughts from today. So I need to go over them again.

[EVO]

LMFAO whysper if you are town Holy shit

[EVO]

@Whysper

If I stick with the logic that Appel wouldn’t TR both her wolf partners,

There are too many variables that affect this shit, and meta reads are unreliable. Especially when the game started with using alts.

[EVO]

Whysper you are giving me some rollercoaster emotions this day

[EVO]

@Whysper

I didn’t vote because it was getting too close to hammer. And even though I was hesitating, I would have likely voted for Gorta anyway since I still saw him more likely scum over EVO at the time.

You said the opposite yesterday.