i’ve done this before it’s fun as fuck
however i don’t entirely agree
going after analyzing process and spending time to write essays on how to solve the game isn’t really instigator
it doesn’t do anything to help solve their allignment, it’s just helping make their reads more understandable
or atleast that’s how i saw it when reading, it looked closer to mentor/mentee then an instigator and their target
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Depends on what I put efforts in, I guess?
JoatJoat13 - all aligments and roles solved correctly on day 2.
JOJO Mash - 28 of 29 roles solved correctly on day 1.
Insurgency - cult leader who didn’t have to recruit till night 6, cause they didn’t need to.
High noon - all my teammates got eliminated 5 minutes into the game. Still won.
etc. etc.
There was way more stuff like this.
The point is… game gets boring if I try on making reads or… win as scum.
So I’m more in a mood of this nightless game where I was helping newbies to come up with reads, without giving my own ones. And then when LyLo came, thunderomed the deepest wolf Katze, got them eliminated, gave hints on Wazza also being a wolf and replaced out.
havent read eevee iso yet so idk when they said they were an instigator but i will see if its towny or its a potential excuse for the arguments
That’s also true.
It was more of me trying to help them come up with some coherent conclusion than creating new ones.
Which is kinda instigator, but more like… hard to tell tbh.
Either way, the material was there, but they needed a push to sit down and analyze it one by one.
Well, all the acussations of “doesn’t put effort” and “doesn’t make reads” are kinda off, as the base for instigating reads is to MAKE materials so OTHERS can make reads.
That’s also how you usually read person like that - if they want to affect end reads when creating situations, or if they try to do it naturally.
I mean, I will get a leader and get you a wolf in LyLo, but as of now - I straightforward refuse to out any of my current reads.
That’s not even dodging. I’m just refusing.
what i used to do for a while is instead say random shit or accuse obvious sarcasm as the truth until people got angry and then saw how angry they would get, if they started saying slurs and borderline modkilled they were towny
none of my boys are in this game but they can confirm it
Yeah, I know several people trying to tilt others to get reads on them.
You are not first. Usually turns game on agressive level, but makes it easy to understand others.
/shrug
It’s kinda simlar, as Instigators main task is to help leaders make a decision.
So pointing out flaws in theirs thought process kinda counts into it as well.
Ok I wrote this last night when I was failing miserably at falling asleep. Added in a couple of things from today as well.
is this objective enough or am I still biased?
Question:
- Are any of the EoD2 wagons w/w with Aelin?
Progression:
- D1 Aelin pushed EVO all day, TMI’d Marl as town, voted EVO
- D2 Aelin pushed lol all day
- Aelin ignored EVO and placed him as a “null” in favor of voting lol when EVO/Intensify were tied wagons
- Aelin voted Intensify and untied the wagons
- Aelin went back to voting lol when I voted (and lol’s wagon picked up steam)
Adding to that with Tilgarial’s posts:
EoD 1 and 2 vote progressions (thanks Tilga!)
Hypotheses:
-
Town!EVO - EVO was a designated ML target on D1 and CWing Marl gave Aelin towncred. Aelin kept the focus on the two of their slots in order to practically guarantee an ML on town. Aelin dropped the case against EVO D2 in favor of pushing lol, and EVO became harder to ML but was guaranteed to be in the PoE already. If D2 had ended in an EVO yeet, Aelin could claim she had decided lol was scummier.
-
Wolf!EVO - Aelin was trying to bus her teammate D1 to gain towncred if either EVO or Marl flipped. Aelin did not continue the push on EVO D2 because she wanted to find a good CW for him, but it doesn’t make it a very effective bus; only a distancing effort. And if EVO went over D2 it would make Aelin look much worse for not pushing him as hard as the day before. Breaking the tie between EVO and Intensify would prevent the vote from randing (meaning at least two wolves had to be outside of the wagons) and would push Intensify to flip instead of EVO.
-
Town!lol - Aelin ignored lol on D1 for the most part because he didn’t quite make it into the immediate town PoE. He wasn’t of interest yet as a potential ML because I started a case way too early on Marl and Aelin started a case on EVO. Aelin only had to SR both of them and then retract the SR on Marl for towncred to keep the focus on the two of them, so she ignored lol. On D2, Aelin built most of her case against lol on the one detail that min, Marl and I had brought up on D1 (and that I continued to bring up on D2), when lol said that he’d sheep my read on Marl but if I was wrong, he’d push me on D2. Two dead townies leaving legacy SR’s on lol was also helpful to the wolves. The rest of Aelin’s case against lol was not memorable at all, and voting him first was indicative of the culmination of an agenda push. Switching her vote off lol was indicative of an opportunistic wagon and as a way to prevent the execution from randing, as EVO/Intensify were tied at the time and there would be no other reason to vote to tiebreak. When I voted for lol, a lot of others decided to vote lol (as opposed to when Aelin voted lol and nobody followed immediately), making me think that another wolf besides Aelin jumped onto the lol wagon, thinking it would reach majority.
-
Wolf!lol - Aelin only interacted once with lol on D1 in an effort to distance from him. Two townies who suspected lol died before D2, possibly watering down the number of town who would willingly SR lol. Aelin then started pushing lol more heavily on D2 to gain towncred if he got bussed, or else to say “I told you so”. Because the CW to EVO was not forming very easily, she thought there would be low risk that lol would be voted out, as nobody voted him immediately after she placed her vote on him. There is no reason for her to switch her vote to Intensify at this point, however, as lol is in no immediate danger, except if she wants herself out of the rand pool. Her tiebreaker vote on Intensify does not match up with wolf!lol.
-
Town!Intensify - Intensify was in most people’s nulls or scumreads and not really townreads already from D1. Aelin only interacted with him once by responding to one of his posts, and it was kind of inconclusive and looked like a wolf leaving their options open for a future ML target. Marl left an SR legacy on him and min left a vague and inconclusive read on him. It was natural for him to end up in the PoE as a wagon, but when he tied with EVO for votes, Aelin placed a tiebreaker vote on Intensify that could only be for either the purpose of saving EVO, or to prevent a randed execution. Purely a strategic vote to save her wolf partner and possibly herself; she hadn’t built a strong case against Intensify up to that point. It was about as weak as my case against Intensify (which, if I’m being honest, was a very poor attempt to sheep Marl’s read and confbias myself into it). Intensify didn’t self-pres and kept his vote on PKR because he believed more strongly in his read on PKR than wanting to save himself by voting EVO.
-
Wolf!Intensify - Aelin only made one post in reply to Intensify on D1 to distance herself from her scum partner. She didn’t build much of a case against him but voted him on D2 to further distance and antispew them as not w/w by being the tiebreaker voter. When she saw that I voted lol, she quickly switched back with relief that she wouldn’t have to bus her partner.
Quick Thoughts:
- Aelin did not want to rand the vote because she voted Intensify to tiebreak, meaning she would rather have Intensify out than the vote to rand.
- if EVO is town, Aelin’s only goal was not to rand the vote.
- if EVO is scum, Aelin made a risky move by jeopardizing her own position in the thread.
- if lol is town, Aelin’s goal was to ML him.
- if lol is scum, Aelin preferred to save herself over him (meaning lol would likely have to be a goon).
- if Intensify is town, Aelin’s vote was purely opportunistic with the purpose of breaking the tie.
- if Intensify is wolf, Aelin voted him for towncred so she could claim she was the deciding vote after he flipped, but switched her vote off him to follow the consensus (?)
- Gorta randed the vote, so if wolves did NOT want to rand the vote, Gorta is towncleared
- there was probably another active wolf other than Aelin so this doesn’t add up with that assumption unless one of my cases is still wrong because of bias, or if exactly Tilgarial is scum
- why was Tilgarial more willing to vote lol than Intensify? points at Tilga not being w/w with EVO or they would have voted to tiebreak probably before Aelin did.
- could Intensify be a neutral like a jester? voting pattern would kind of back that theory. if the wagons tie and the jester is in the rand pool, it’s beneficial for them. Intensify was not opposed to risking a rand on either EoD, and neither did he self-pres. When he was tied with EVO for votes on D2, it was still a bit too early to break the tie to steer it in his favor; he would have had to be at L-1 in order to hammer himself. I’m just… not going to vote Intensify anymore. Just in case.
Conclusions:
• EVO is town
• lol is town
• Intensify is not scum
• I need to look at other slots because I still reached the same conclusion as before; just wrote out all my thoughts this time.
Disclaimer: I did not write this post keeping neutrals in mind. That’s only something I thought of today when Tilgarial posted the vote progressions.
@eevee have fun pointing out the flaws here, go for it!
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oh yeah i guess this part isn’t entirely true
but eh
I may or may not be around for EoD; will try to be but can’t promise
I’m gonna start from the back, as easiest questions are there.
Why do you consider Intensify and possible jester and not gorta, when gorta was one who set up the rand to begin with?
And instead you say gorta might be towncleared for this?
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because I originally wrote in my post that Intensify was town as well, and only today when I looked at the D1 vote progression again I thought Intensify could be a jester.
so I edited that in, but did not edit anything in on Gorta because the thought occurred to me specifically when looking at Intensify’s D1 voting pattern as Gorta was literally not there.
not saying that Gorta’s lack of presence means that he isn’t a jester; just saying I specifically had the thought regarding Intensify and it didn’t occur to me to apply that logic elsewhere.
however, when I screamed in the thread not to tie the votes because they’d rand, I saw Gorta unvote.
more importantly, what causes a lack of a self-pres vote when your own wagon is tied with someone else’s?
Gorta was in no position where he would need to self-pres because he wasn’t being wagoned. Intensify was, but made no move to do anything about it.