who are these weak wolves
Overnight thoughts, pre-Arete flip, Part 2
Basically this is how I managed to case Arete as a wolf even though they’ve now flipped town
Warning: fucking long ass ISO because I promised to reevaluate
I have the same case on Arete as I did during D2, as I individually SR’d them and not just specifically with Marshal. The only thing that’s changed is that Marshal’s sudden sheeping of Arete looks even weirder as it came from town. I wouldn’t exclude the possibility of town sheeping a wolf, as I don’t think it changes how Arete looks at all; all it says to me is that Arete made a convincing case, but not necessarily that they are town.
As I mentioned earlier, I SR Arete for the same reasons as Litten and Gorta do, and I’m not really sure how I could reach the same conclusion as Litten if he’s a wolf (but if so, then he’s just hard pocketing me which is yikes). I still TR Gorta as I just don’t think anything he’s done so far reflects wolfiness, but both Litten and Arete remain in my PoE.
Ftr I still think Arete was asking me loaded questions and trying to get me to drop the SR on them by simply discrediting my reads and framing me as misinterpreting literally everything they have said. As I said before, I view Arete as a strong town player but also a very capable wolf, and I don’t think Arete as town misinterprets everything I say and then also claims I am misunderstanding them, then basically claims they’re being victimized. I’m not the only one Arete is doing this to, either, which is why I think it’s just plain wolfy. It still looks way more like a smart wolf play than a victimized town play to twist my words and make me doubt myself. The smartest wolfplay would be to just set me up for LyLo and hope for a misyeet there, especially since I’ve already been discredited by Marshal’s flip. There is a chance that they could be right about Marshal and Chloe being v/v - not that I ever said there wasn’t, but seeing Marshal flip v kind of cements the possibility a little more for me - and whether that’s due to actual thoughts or TMI, I’m not sure at this point, so I’m just going to consider that part NAI from now on. It also makes Arete look like they have a progression on their Chloe read which I’m… not entirely convinced is a real progression but I’m looking into that currently. I think their jump on Litten for making a board of Marl’s posts is a little strange but I can see it being a questionable thing, but dropping Chloe into the “might be a villager” slot after mostly SRing her seems off. Calling Centuries’ spreadsheet villagery but then putting him in PoE is also off.
Look at Arete’s earlier readlist, btw:
Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #3690 by Arete
And then their explanations:
Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #3716 by Arete
Those explanations on a potential clear for Litten and Centuries are just… weird. They’re not good clears, and putting Centuries as town for the sake of filling the town slots is objectively bad, regardless of his alignment. Arete knows better than this.
Look how much that readlist changes later in the day. I remain in their PoE but both Litten and Centuries drop into it, too, over reasons I think are honestly weak. Mist moves out of the PoE as Arete says Blizer is already 10x more villagery than Mist, immediately when he replaces in and drops his vote on Chloe. Someone said it wasn’t a good clear for Blizer, and despite the fact that I also cleared him (although not specifically for his Chloe vote), whoever said that is correct. It’s absolutely not a clear.
Here Arete says again that they have the game locked, although they’d swap out Mist/Blizer for Light or Centuries:
Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #4174 by Arete
And then they call out Marshal for switching up his reads on them due to the “game is locked” comment after their readlist:
Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #4238 by Arete
The following post is Arete beginning to suggest that Chloe and Marshal are v/v but also denying it at the same time:
Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #4598 by Arete
I guess this could come from either alignment, but considering they went hardcore into “Chloe and Marshal are v/v and Windward is 100% against it” despite previously saying they didn’t think they were v/v makes it just look like an excuse to call me a wolf, because as I said before, although I said it was unlikely they were v/v I never said it was impossible.
Read this post keeping in mind that Arete will soon drop their push on Chloe:
Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #4863 by Arete
They ask me to push Chloe with them, after literally SRing me because I did not pick the most solid stance on Marshal and Chloe is still sitting in my PoE, but also implying I am a wolf partner to Chloe because I SR her but don’t push her.
And when that fails, they just go “Marshal and Chloe are v/v, Wind doesn’t believe me” because that’s the next best way to frame me as a wolf while also gaining towncred if it is, in fact, true.
This post is kind of strange:
Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #5258 by Arete
That’s a valid take, but that is literally what I said in response to Centuries asking why else Marl would be killed other than if Chloe is a wolf, and Arete discredited me for it by saying it sounded like I knew why Marl was killed. But here Arete is saying the same as I did, just rephrased. I wish I’d noticed this immediately when they said it so I could’ve called them out on it.
Here’s where Arete says Marshal and Chloe could be v/v:
Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #5467 by Arete
They then follow it up by saying they also think the take is bad. I suppose it could come from either alignment, but based on the earlier posts by them, especially where they tried to push me to vote Chloe over Marshal, I don’t really think it adds up. Where’s the progression in this? They just suddenly had a realization they should stop pushing both of them, then after battling with me and battling with Litten they decided they wouldn’t hang around during EoD so they plopped a vote on Litten for calling them a wolf, and put both of us in their PoE along with Centuries?
Weird.
And I don’t feel the need to quote all their back-and-forth banter with Litten and me because both of us have already quoted the relevant posts and explained why we thought they looked wolfy, so I’m not going to put it all here again.
Here’s Arete’s updated PoE, for comparison with the earlier one:
Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #5629 by Arete
They literally based this off people who disagreed with their suggestion on Chloe/Marshal being v/v, even if it wasn’t a 100% disagreement (which they painted me to be doing, when I was not).
Then they just discredit me for pushing them and complain that I’m reading disagreement as inherently wolfy, which is exactly what they’re doing to me and I really fail to see how town!Arete does this because they’re smarter than that and I’m also smarter than that:
Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #5634 by Arete
As Litten said, the way in which Arete was addressing me for pretty much the entirety of D2 just looks like grasping for ways to frame me, and by not being around for EoD but seemingly growing more confident in Marshal/Chloe v/v in case of flips, they’ve done an actually perfect job of framing me along with Litten (idk about Centuries, he’s kind of wolfy looking now for other reasons). Ftr I could still see anyone who disagreed with Arete as w/w with Arete anyway, except for myself because I know my alignment is town (weak defense but I can’t scumread myself, although the rest of you absolutely can).
Then look at this post:
Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #5672 by Arete
I never said “Arete is making a read they don’t believe in” and yet that is somehow what Arete got out of my accusation. But judging by the buildup to their v/v, does it actually look like they believed it as a possibility? They put it as a theory that they said they actively thought was ridiculous, even though it exists, and then jumped on me for saying it didn’t look like they believed it as an actual town conclusion. It’s not the world itself I didn’t believe in; it was Arete going from “this is a possibility but I don’t really want to believe it” to “people who don’t believe me because this is a real possibility are wolfy” without ever making it clear that they did believe in their own theory. That progression just looks like a big leap with no reasoning in between.
Anyway, after all that, they post a long wall on why their “tinfoil v/v world” looks like a real thing:
Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #6129 by Arete
But the funny thing is that they did exactly what they’ve been accusing me of, which is forming a conclusion first and then finding reasons to back it. So they’re accusing me of being a wolf for the exact same thing they’ve done here. A valid accusation, but much less effective if you do it yourself and someone catches you.
Then this post:
Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #6158 by Arete
This post says to me there’s a chance that Litten and Arete are w/w, and while it doesn’t seem like a wolfy post in itself, it just means we can’t clear Litten even if Arete flips wolf.
This post is somewhat of a legacy post, hinging off the previous one I quoted:
Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #6526 by Arete
Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #6541 by Arete
Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #6549 by Arete
In that last post, that’s a funny way to pick the wolf team. Openly admitting they just disagree and are GTH wolves? Nice.
This post is really off:
Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #6583 by Arete
I said earlier that the only person who slapped a TR on me was Marshal. After that, I think Chloe did as well. But Arete acted as if I pocketed the entire game, despite a good number of players still keeping me at null or below their PoE line, so their post doesn’t reflect actually paying attention to anyone else’s reads.
I think this post was Arete’s GTH town:
Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #6771 by Arete
And Chloe has gone from being the D1 wolf push to towncore here. Why??? I understand putting Chloe into townreads but moving her up from “extremely wolfy” to “possibly villager” to “towncore” is excessive. I don’t think you’d ever seen a villager do this in the span of less than a day.
Then Arete makes an actual legacy wallpost thinking they’ll flip:
Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #6941 by Arete
It’s not really AI in any way to make a legacy post, especially when at least several people have spent more than half the day pushing you. But discrediting everyone’s preflip notions and pointing fingers at the three people who disagreed with you (even if one of them is potentially your wolf partner) and moving your biggest scumread into your towncore just doesn’t sit right. If anyone wants to point out how I’m wrong in thinking this, please do, and give some good points to make me believe I’m wrong. Because Arete has only discredited me and not actually made me believe that I’m wrong in SRing them.
If anyone wants to read my earlier wall about Arete and why I SR’d them, here it is for comparison so that you can follow my entire train of thought on their slot:
Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #4842 by WindwardAway
My points remain the same except for the part where I thought Arete could be covering for Marshal as a wolf (and remember I also said that Arete could have TMI’d him as town, so it’s not like that was the whole basis of my read).
1 Like
will have to actually do work on figuring that outb
let me finish reading ur wall post
1 Like
This one literally just makes me a shitty villager because I actually went through Arete’s entire ISO and still managed to case them as a wolf so lol
she townread marshal and i was in her poe
I think your EoD was godawful for someone who is/was certain on me being a villager
As you didn’t put in any effort to help me, and you sidelined and had zero thread presence
This looks much worse with a Marshal v flip, and I think is heavily indicative of you being a wolf who was content with the state of the game
i read it and it all relies on things i cant confirm
such as you being tired or whatever
like
i get that
but eod is legitimately the most important part of the day and you had no thread presence in the slightest