Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 5 [6/15] - Mafoa win, Everybody (including chloe) loses

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#7942

Ok so I wrote not one but two wallposts overnight

And one is useless because it was literally me ISOing Arete so RIP

The other was my current reads, but again it included Arete, so RIP

and I have no idea why Arete died (i.e. I don’t know whether it does or doesn’t make Chloe likely a wolf so I’m just not going to factor Chloe into it because this also happened with Marl and didn’t help us reach a conclusion).

I did see one thing at EoD when reading through that makes Blizer specifically look townier, though, and it was that he switched his vote to hammer Marshal at the last minute. It’s not something that makes him look good per se, but it’s something that I think is a dumb move for a wolf to make at the last second because why would a wolf hammer a townie at that point, knowing they are town? It looks too terrible for a wolf imo.

Uh yeah so basically I wasted a couple hours writing stuff that doesn’t matter because probably everything I wrote is wrong :confused: and Arete was right and I owe them an apology. I don’t have an excuse for treating them how I did because I’m literally just a bad villager as they said.

#7943

post it

#7944

Now that I think about it if arete is right about most stuff and wolves aren’t particularly strong they might just kill arete because they don’t think they can get a misyeet on Chloe if they killed blizer

#7945

Post it
In spoilers please

1 Like
#7946

or maybe they don’t realize their objective is to yeet town and not ‘/survive’

#7947

arete being right on most stuff points to strong wolves

so

1 Like
#7948

I swear this post was just edited the text moved

#7949
Overnight thoughts, pre-Arete flip, Part 1

Current thoughts, written overnight:
I think Arete, Chloe, Litten, Sulit and Centuries are in my PoE (not necessarily in that order). I’d rather have Arete yeeted today for reasons I’ll state below, but I’m not opposed to considering voting Chloe after, although if there was TMI on her being v/v with Marshal and it wasn’t just a way of getting people off her wagon then lol.

Chloe and Litten for pushing on Marshal (the rest of you can include me in the PoE too since I also pushed him) and Arete because I’m still not convinced they’re town based on their loaded questions to me yesterday. Sulit mainly because of her weird responses to Chloe’s questions. Centuries looks measurably worse at EoD than he did for pretty much the whole rest of the game.

Additionally, Chloe said she thought the wagon on Marshal looked pure, which is almost definitely not the case as he flipped town. Chloe’s legacy post says that if Marshal flips town, Arete likely flips town as well which is imo a flawed conclusion. It didn’t look like she initially considered that Arete would TMI for towncred, although later on I think maybe she did realize that? I think I saw it when reading through EoD, anyway. She did also say in that post that Centuries and I look worse if Marshal flips town, which is a valid conclusion, but then she also said specifically that Marshal/Arete/Sulit looked like the most likely wolf team which seems very slightly odd considering that I think I said it first, and Centuries rated the team at an A- (and we now know that all teams including Marshal are void).

On that note, once Marshal pointed out that Sulit and Arete were the only ones defending him, the team composition including the three of them looked really weird because they’d just be spewing themselves as wolves, and I wish I’d been awake for EoD to see that. I’m not going to say I definitely would have moved my vote, but there’s a lot that was posted at EoD and I definitely would’ve at least considered it based on a couple things that went on there.

I’m not sure if Litten and Arete can be w/w or not based on interactions. Again, I think they’re individually wolfy, but I’m not sure if they’re a team or not because that would be a heck of a lot of bussing going on. Marshal didn’t think so, though, and thought that Litten and I weren’t aligned with Arete. I’m not 100% sure about that and I kind of feel like a jerk if I just push Arete to flip to prove myself town, because I don’t actually think Arete’s flip proves very much and I’d rather yeet them for the sake of getting a wolf than flip analysis because they’re more than capable of distancing.

Arete

So I did a full ISO on Arete overnight and did not, in fact, read their posts with a confbiased mindset. But my conclusion, as you can tell, is still that they’ve been wolfy, and I will post a wall immediately after this on exactly why I think that’s so.

Sulit

Sulit didn’t push Marshal at all, but her responses to Chloe’s Q&A still look pretty dodgy to me, so I don’t really know what to make of them. She made a lot of posts that didn’t really look AI, so I don’t think she spewed herself as anything in particular from most of them. As a wolf she could easily have TMI’d Marshal as town imo, and she was kind of waffling on Chloe, too. She placed her vote at EoD on Chloe instead of Marshal, even though she kind of seemed like she didn’t want to. I assume she did anyway because she TR’d Marshal and Chloe was his CW. Sulit could have done this as either alignment, so she still sits in my PoE. Her reasoning at EoD on Arete possibly being wolf but Marshal being town was pretty reasonable, though, so that’s still a point in her favor tbh.

Blizer

Blizer is someone I said was not immediately in my PoE, and he did not push Marshal as much as he pushed Chloe. Blizer SR’d both and pushed harder on Chloe, but swapped his vote to Marshal, which doesn’t look great. Blizer hammered Marshal, not that it made much of a difference as it was EoD, and I think it would be weird for a wolf to consciously hammer town at EoD, specifically because it does make them look worse. So he looks slightly better than if he’d left his vote on Chloe, and I’ll keep him out of the PoE for that reason.

Centuries

I don’t know what to make of Centuries. I think the problem is that I want him to be town for the sake of solving the game more easily, but that’s an incredibly dumb reason to TR him and it honestly may have biased me. I know he puts a lot of effort into his games regardless of alignment, and I was definitely wrong on him in Countries FM where he was lost wolf. In contrast to earlier in the day, I think his EoD looked at least a measurable amount wolfier. I don’t know whether to put him in my PoE or not, though. If he actually went to the work of bullshitting wolf team analysis then lol?? I suppose it’s NAI and not town-indicative but yikes.

Everyone else

Leafia:
Leafia is absolutely just a tunnelling villager and I just hope she sheeps the right person. I back what Chloe said in her legacy post and I think Leafia should probably follow Blizer. His reads obviously were wrong, as Marshal flipped town, but he’s also highly unlikely to be wolf because of his hammer on Marshal at the last minute.

Grace:
Grace is always a villager and has obvtowned herself into locktown as far as I’m concerned. I just see no way she ever flips wolf by the way she’s posted and expressed insecurity about whom to vote or whom to sheep.

Gorta:
Gorta is still villager for me. It doesn’t mean I totally agree with his reads, but I really strongly doubt he’s a wolf. I think someone mentioned he’d only be a wolf with Marshal, and that’s out of the question now, anyway. I won’t reevaluate Gorta unless he makes it to LyLo, but in that case I think he could be beneficial for town (as long as he doesn’t tree).

Light:
I could reevaluate Light. For the most part nothing he’s said has stuck out for me, or pinged me the wrong way, and I think his posts look mainly NAI with a couple of slightly more towny posts in there. But he’s sitting closer to a null than towncore, so I’m not opposed to taking a closer look at his slot in case I’ve missed something. My read on him is more or less surface level, meaning that it has more than a negligible chance of being wrong due to my being sloppy with it as I was more focused on other slots. If he miscleared Trochi’s slot, though, I’ll take it as a sign to reread everything he’s posted.

Osie:
I have like no read at all on Osie right now, and they will have to come back into the thread for me to do anything with their slot. I found Nightingale to be kind of off and mostly fluffy but pointing fingers at people who ended up flipping villager, so that didn’t look great, but I didn’t get wolfy vibes from Trochi when they subbed in. Now that Osie is in the slot, I need to reevaluate. I mostly just left it alone until this point, but I think it’s a good time to start reading it once Osie starts posting.

Miscellaneous thoughts:

My post saying a second CFD off Marshal would look incredibly wolfy did not age well, by the way. I guess part of the problem is that I tend to view CFDs as generally wolfier than not, which is a fallacy because they can also save town and nail a wolf. I should know that, having seen it happen several times, but I just assumed here that trying to CFD off the same person twice had to be wolfy, instead of seeing it as just NAI and considering the individual CFDs rather than both as a pair. Anyway I’m admitting I made a huge mistake by saying that.

One thing that really confuses me is, if Marshal basically just mindmelded with Arete by the looks of it, and I mindmelded with Chloe and FK, one of us actually mindmelded with a wolf (which is a fake mindmeld) and that’s a yikes. Chances are statistically higher that I’m the one who got pocketed because I agreed with two people and Marshal only agreed with one, but I’m nowhere near convinced Arete isn’t a wolf.

I’m also pretty sure there has to be at least one wolf who claimed to townread Marshal or at the very least expressed that they did not want him voted out.

If Marshal and Chloe are both town, there is at least one wolf, if not two, who will try to grab towncred for not pushing either of them imo.

If Chloe is a wolf, then I don’t think any wolves would have voted her (if at all) until it looked pretty clear that Marshal would be yeeted. I haven’t done a vote analysis yet because I haven’t had the time.

Basically: my preflips suck and I should just stop because it’s not helping me reach any sort of conclusion in this game.

Unrelated:
I don’t really have much time this week to do stuff here because I’m moving into a new place, have to buy and assemble furniture, and study for an exam that’s next week, so if my activity drops in the thread that’s why. I’ll try to keep up with as much reading as I can, though, and you’re free to tag me if you have a question directed at me or something you want me to read as well.

1 Like
#7950

weak wolves

blizer always ends in you being dead

#7951

no

i didnt edit anything

its a discourse glitch

#7952

who are these weak wolves

#7953

crayola eaters

#7954

if u are town it’s probably sulit’ed both wagons as v/v

#7955

who tmi’ed

#7956

sulit is a single person

who are the weak wolves

#7957
Overnight thoughts, pre-Arete flip, Part 2

Basically this is how I managed to case Arete as a wolf even though they’ve now flipped town

Warning: fucking long ass ISO because I promised to reevaluate

I have the same case on Arete as I did during D2, as I individually SR’d them and not just specifically with Marshal. The only thing that’s changed is that Marshal’s sudden sheeping of Arete looks even weirder as it came from town. I wouldn’t exclude the possibility of town sheeping a wolf, as I don’t think it changes how Arete looks at all; all it says to me is that Arete made a convincing case, but not necessarily that they are town.
As I mentioned earlier, I SR Arete for the same reasons as Litten and Gorta do, and I’m not really sure how I could reach the same conclusion as Litten if he’s a wolf (but if so, then he’s just hard pocketing me which is yikes). I still TR Gorta as I just don’t think anything he’s done so far reflects wolfiness, but both Litten and Arete remain in my PoE.
Ftr I still think Arete was asking me loaded questions and trying to get me to drop the SR on them by simply discrediting my reads and framing me as misinterpreting literally everything they have said. As I said before, I view Arete as a strong town player but also a very capable wolf, and I don’t think Arete as town misinterprets everything I say and then also claims I am misunderstanding them, then basically claims they’re being victimized. I’m not the only one Arete is doing this to, either, which is why I think it’s just plain wolfy. It still looks way more like a smart wolf play than a victimized town play to twist my words and make me doubt myself. The smartest wolfplay would be to just set me up for LyLo and hope for a misyeet there, especially since I’ve already been discredited by Marshal’s flip. There is a chance that they could be right about Marshal and Chloe being v/v - not that I ever said there wasn’t, but seeing Marshal flip v kind of cements the possibility a little more for me - and whether that’s due to actual thoughts or TMI, I’m not sure at this point, so I’m just going to consider that part NAI from now on. It also makes Arete look like they have a progression on their Chloe read which I’m… not entirely convinced is a real progression but I’m looking into that currently. I think their jump on Litten for making a board of Marl’s posts is a little strange but I can see it being a questionable thing, but dropping Chloe into the “might be a villager” slot after mostly SRing her seems off. Calling Centuries’ spreadsheet villagery but then putting him in PoE is also off.

Look at Arete’s earlier readlist, btw:

Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #3690 by Arete

And then their explanations:

Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #3716 by Arete

Those explanations on a potential clear for Litten and Centuries are just… weird. They’re not good clears, and putting Centuries as town for the sake of filling the town slots is objectively bad, regardless of his alignment. Arete knows better than this.

Look how much that readlist changes later in the day. I remain in their PoE but both Litten and Centuries drop into it, too, over reasons I think are honestly weak. Mist moves out of the PoE as Arete says Blizer is already 10x more villagery than Mist, immediately when he replaces in and drops his vote on Chloe. Someone said it wasn’t a good clear for Blizer, and despite the fact that I also cleared him (although not specifically for his Chloe vote), whoever said that is correct. It’s absolutely not a clear.

Here Arete says again that they have the game locked, although they’d swap out Mist/Blizer for Light or Centuries:

Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #4174 by Arete

And then they call out Marshal for switching up his reads on them due to the “game is locked” comment after their readlist:

Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #4238 by Arete

The following post is Arete beginning to suggest that Chloe and Marshal are v/v but also denying it at the same time:

Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #4598 by Arete

I guess this could come from either alignment, but considering they went hardcore into “Chloe and Marshal are v/v and Windward is 100% against it” despite previously saying they didn’t think they were v/v makes it just look like an excuse to call me a wolf, because as I said before, although I said it was unlikely they were v/v I never said it was impossible.

Read this post keeping in mind that Arete will soon drop their push on Chloe:

Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #4863 by Arete

They ask me to push Chloe with them, after literally SRing me because I did not pick the most solid stance on Marshal and Chloe is still sitting in my PoE, but also implying I am a wolf partner to Chloe because I SR her but don’t push her.

And when that fails, they just go “Marshal and Chloe are v/v, Wind doesn’t believe me” because that’s the next best way to frame me as a wolf while also gaining towncred if it is, in fact, true.

This post is kind of strange:

Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #5258 by Arete

That’s a valid take, but that is literally what I said in response to Centuries asking why else Marl would be killed other than if Chloe is a wolf, and Arete discredited me for it by saying it sounded like I knew why Marl was killed. But here Arete is saying the same as I did, just rephrased. I wish I’d noticed this immediately when they said it so I could’ve called them out on it.

Here’s where Arete says Marshal and Chloe could be v/v:

Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #5467 by Arete

They then follow it up by saying they also think the take is bad. I suppose it could come from either alignment, but based on the earlier posts by them, especially where they tried to push me to vote Chloe over Marshal, I don’t really think it adds up. Where’s the progression in this? They just suddenly had a realization they should stop pushing both of them, then after battling with me and battling with Litten they decided they wouldn’t hang around during EoD so they plopped a vote on Litten for calling them a wolf, and put both of us in their PoE along with Centuries?

Weird.

And I don’t feel the need to quote all their back-and-forth banter with Litten and me because both of us have already quoted the relevant posts and explained why we thought they looked wolfy, so I’m not going to put it all here again.

Here’s Arete’s updated PoE, for comparison with the earlier one:

Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #5629 by Arete

They literally based this off people who disagreed with their suggestion on Chloe/Marshal being v/v, even if it wasn’t a 100% disagreement (which they painted me to be doing, when I was not).

Then they just discredit me for pushing them and complain that I’m reading disagreement as inherently wolfy, which is exactly what they’re doing to me and I really fail to see how town!Arete does this because they’re smarter than that and I’m also smarter than that:

Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #5634 by Arete

As Litten said, the way in which Arete was addressing me for pretty much the entirety of D2 just looks like grasping for ways to frame me, and by not being around for EoD but seemingly growing more confident in Marshal/Chloe v/v in case of flips, they’ve done an actually perfect job of framing me along with Litten (idk about Centuries, he’s kind of wolfy looking now for other reasons). Ftr I could still see anyone who disagreed with Arete as w/w with Arete anyway, except for myself because I know my alignment is town (weak defense but I can’t scumread myself, although the rest of you absolutely can).

Then look at this post:

Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #5672 by Arete

I never said “Arete is making a read they don’t believe in” and yet that is somehow what Arete got out of my accusation. But judging by the buildup to their v/v, does it actually look like they believed it as a possibility? They put it as a theory that they said they actively thought was ridiculous, even though it exists, and then jumped on me for saying it didn’t look like they believed it as an actual town conclusion. It’s not the world itself I didn’t believe in; it was Arete going from “this is a possibility but I don’t really want to believe it” to “people who don’t believe me because this is a real possibility are wolfy” without ever making it clear that they did believe in their own theory. That progression just looks like a big leap with no reasoning in between.

Anyway, after all that, they post a long wall on why their “tinfoil v/v world” looks like a real thing:

Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #6129 by Arete

But the funny thing is that they did exactly what they’ve been accusing me of, which is forming a conclusion first and then finding reasons to back it. So they’re accusing me of being a wolf for the exact same thing they’ve done here. A valid accusation, but much less effective if you do it yourself and someone catches you.

Then this post:

Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #6158 by Arete

This post says to me there’s a chance that Litten and Arete are w/w, and while it doesn’t seem like a wolfy post in itself, it just means we can’t clear Litten even if Arete flips wolf.

This post is somewhat of a legacy post, hinging off the previous one I quoted:

Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #6526 by Arete

Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #6541 by Arete

Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #6549 by Arete

In that last post, that’s a funny way to pick the wolf team. Openly admitting they just disagree and are GTH wolves? Nice.

This post is really off:

Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #6583 by Arete

I said earlier that the only person who slapped a TR on me was Marshal. After that, I think Chloe did as well. But Arete acted as if I pocketed the entire game, despite a good number of players still keeping me at null or below their PoE line, so their post doesn’t reflect actually paying attention to anyone else’s reads.

I think this post was Arete’s GTH town:

Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #6771 by Arete

And Chloe has gone from being the D1 wolf push to towncore here. Why??? I understand putting Chloe into townreads but moving her up from “extremely wolfy” to “possibly villager” to “towncore” is excessive. I don’t think you’d ever seen a villager do this in the span of less than a day.

Then Arete makes an actual legacy wallpost thinking they’ll flip:

Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #6941 by Arete

It’s not really AI in any way to make a legacy post, especially when at least several people have spent more than half the day pushing you. But discrediting everyone’s preflip notions and pointing fingers at the three people who disagreed with you (even if one of them is potentially your wolf partner) and moving your biggest scumread into your towncore just doesn’t sit right. If anyone wants to point out how I’m wrong in thinking this, please do, and give some good points to make me believe I’m wrong. Because Arete has only discredited me and not actually made me believe that I’m wrong in SRing them.

If anyone wants to read my earlier wall about Arete and why I SR’d them, here it is for comparison so that you can follow my entire train of thought on their slot:

Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 3 [11/15] - #4842 by WindwardAway

My points remain the same except for the part where I thought Arete could be covering for Marshal as a wolf (and remember I also said that Arete could have TMI’d him as town, so it’s not like that was the whole basis of my read).

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#7958

will have to actually do work on figuring that outb

let me finish reading ur wall post

1 Like
#7959

wind i promise to read your posts soon

same with conroy

im in hyperpost mode rn

#7960

This one literally just makes me a shitty villager because I actually went through Arete’s entire ISO and still managed to case them as a wolf so lol

#7961

chloe you’re missing on my literal peak posting